@cjh4sh @michalmalewicz "idea flow"
I.e. huff your own farts until you're blue in the face
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J Rod
85 posts
@michalmalewicz Yeah. For some reason i dont see ppl trying to reason/ideaflow with a google search bar
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Just a reminder: the AI industry is a bubble.
AI itself is not a bubble, it's just a really cool search engine. Useful for some stuff.
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@RichardHanania To be fair they probably are overblown
The tax base isn't large enough to matter in itself in the long run
Creating a race to the bottom for business investment is probably just as bad as ignoring that it matters
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Socialist gets elected mayor of Seattle. She says “I think the claims that millionaires are going to leave our state are super overblown. And the ones that leave? Like, bye.”
The crowd laughs and cheers.
Now, local leaders are worried that they're actually leaving.
Starbucks is opening a corporate hub in Nashville, which actually wants business. The mayor says she wants the company to stay.
How many times do we have to experience this? How is there never any learning?
Socialism isn't just bad economics. It's spiritually rotten to be this hostile to truth and this hateful toward those who contribute most to society.
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@SwannMarcus89 Easy just be disingenuous
Americans love socialism by any other name
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I refuse to read the comments because I don’t care but I am clearly right about this.
Donald Trump started a war of choice nobody saw coming that doubled gas prices in two months and the Democrats are…performing worse in the generic ballot than at the same point in 2018
We’re going to have a hard fought election to try and take the Senate after Trump did the craziest shit I’ve ever seen from a sitting president. Given the war will be over before November, the Dem generic advantage might even be far less than the current 6%
The GOP can do the most psychotic nonsense and reman competitive. Meanwhile, the median voter thought Biden - who progressives think was to the right of Ronald Reagan - was a communist. Sorry I’m the only lib being honest about our situation
Swann Marcus@SwannMarcus89
Long term the Democrats are completely fucked. They keep moving left and 60% of American voters already think the Democrats are too liberal. The party is overwhelmingly hated and it will get worse The Democrats are only able to compete because Donald Trump is still alive
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@jakehmccoy @humrashid Could both not be true?
Wealth means less people need children or have them unintentionally
But among those who desire children, wealth is correlated with having more children, no?
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@humrashid ??
Do you think I meant "economically poor" when I said "poor values"?
Largely, the poor are still having children. It's the middle income and rich who have opted out.
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The response to this has radicalized me. Most are calling Sasse out of touch and claiming that if we provided free healthcare/childcare/housing or otherwise made life more affordable, fertility would increase.
I am very confident in saying that as affordability increases, all else equal, fertility will continue to drop. The spattering of free stuff above would knock it to zero for a good portion of the country.
60 Minutes@60Minutes
“We've stopped making babies. We've decided that being distracted by a dopamine hit around Candy Crush might be a good way to spend your time. Not if you're a full human," former Sen. Ben Sasse says in an extended interview. cbsn.ws/4cA1Jrp
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@blueprintsmb22 Bc they want to constantly distract from the fact that the key to winning in capitalism is capital
You have to have equity
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Has there ever been a period in human history pre COVID where so many white collar millionaires and billionaires have told the younger generation to go into the trades? Where are the videos of the 56 year old HVAC tech who needs knee replacements from too many installs on commercial roofs telling 18 year olds to avoid student loans and follow their path? x.com/yonann/status/…
Yonan@yonann
Dave Ramsey says a $600 pressure washing job can be the first step to making 150K a year "You don’t want to be 63 years old still pressure washing. But to get through this week, you can do a lot of pressure washing" "Use the pressure washing money to pay $10,000 for code school, then go make 150K a year coding, every move should be a step toward where you want to be in 10 years"
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@TheJeffPutnam He's capitulating on a weeks old proposal from Iran
Retard
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Anyone surprised by this hasn’t read the Art of the Deal.
“Nothing ever happens”
Of course it doesn’t.
Trump’s MO is and has always been to operate this way.
1. See a problem.
2. Make the most batshit crazy and outlandish threats anyone could ever think of and act like he has nothing to lose.
3. Immediately agree to negotiate as soon as it’s put on the table .
Go back to ANY “thing” that’s ever come up in his presidency (either) and you’ll see this exact pattern.
A business owner doesn’t want to agree to a merger with one of Trump’s companies?
Trump: I’ll short the fuck out of your stock and then buy it all up for pennies. Then I’ll fire everyone and have my own people run it.
Business owner: WTF? Let’s talk.
Trump: I’d love to.
Iran doesn’t want to open the straightening Hormuz?
Trump: Fuck it. Well bomb the whole country and the drop a nuke and kill everyone in the region with a big beautiful blast and then give them all cancer for generations.
Iran: WTF? Let’s talk.
Trump: I’d love to.
It’s the same old shit every time.
The White House@WhiteHouse
🚨 President Donald J. Trump makes a statement on Iran:
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@Zebra12991210 I mean probably for BS reasons
But they genuinely should go to prison for all this fucking insider trading
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Make no mistake, when the Democrats regain power they will conduct a Nuremberg trial for Trump and his administration. And by extension, MAGA. It will be sham trials, with only one outcome possible. Prison for the administration. Not hyperbole, fact.
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@RealPData It makes sense that right now you would see polling against GOP because people aren't in a position to actually vote for a Democrat right now
When the decision actually presents itself the polling will normalize closer to the election
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I went back and looked through every single Senate election since 2000, and looked at the amount of Senate races with the following factors:
-The state voted for one party's presidential candidate by at least 10 percentage points in the prior or current presidential election cycle.
-The incumbent senator (from the party that lost the state in that presidential election) was renominated by their party and appeared on the general election ballot.
-Despite the incumbent running, the seat flipped to the opposing party, which is the one that had lost the state by at least 10 points in the presidential election.
And this is the amount of times it's happened since 2000:
2024 - 0
2022 - 0
2020 - 0
2018 - 0
2016 - 0
2014 - 0
2012 - 1 (Indiana R+11)
2010 - 1 (Wisconsin D+14)
2008 - 0
2006 - 1 (Montana R+21)
2004 - 0
2002 - 0
2000 - 0
Yet according to Barnes, this extremely rare pattern could happen up to 6 times in the 2026 midterms. That is more than double the total from the entire period since 2000.
Real Political Data@RealPData
Pure madness. I have no words at this point for how deranged these people have become.
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@Fair_and_Biased @MattWalshBlog I love how you still can't clearly lay out the actual goals and objectives of this conflict, including how to end it
Fucking retarded cunt
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I completely disagree with @MattWalshBlog.
After we killed Iran’s leader, decimated the top levels of their regime, achieved complete air superiority, & sunk their navy, he says that no thoughtful person can say the black-pilling was irrational.
But it WAS- in no small part because it started IMMEDIATELY.
It’s not unreasonable to ask questions about any war.
BUT pundits who immediately reacted with “endless war” rhetoric 3 days into the conflict and are now pivoting to “failed war” rhetoric 3 weeks into it ARE being “panicans.”
In the process, they’re helping Iran make their dire predictions a reality by doing its PR.
Matt Walsh@MattWalshBlog
Some of us expressed great concern about the Iran War when it was first launched. We were shouted down and condemned as “panicans” and “blackpillers” and even Islamist sympathizers. But it’s pretty clear from how things have gone that our concerns were absolutely reasonable and legitimate. Maybe Trump will get us out of this thing soon and it still won’t spiral into a long and drawn out war. But even if that happens — and I’m not convinced it will — no thoughtful person can deny at this point that the spiral and long war scenario is very much a possibility. No reasonable person, at this stage, can say that our concerns were irrational. What looks irrational now — and always did — is the demand for blind allegiance and unthinking “trust” in our elected leaders, as though we are called to have faith in politicians like we have faith in God.
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@toddsaunders Except this is total horseshit
The moat is VC money and fixed assets
You could copy 100% of the code of any SaaS product, it doesn't make it your product
That is why we will be floating in a world of shit their poorly supported software more than we already are in 5 years
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I heard an incredible analogy from a VC friend that I can’t stop thinking about.
“The moat in software was the cost of building software. And Claude Code just mass produced a bridge.”
It’s wild when you think about the impact of this.
The SaaS boom produced a few dozen billionaires and a bunch of zero sum winners.
But the AI SaaS era will mass produce millionaires.
There will be fewer ServiceTitans hitting $5B valuations, and instead there will be 50,000 companies doing $500K-$5M each, run by 1-3 people with deep expertise and huge margins.
To be clear, I believe that the total value of software goes up, and the number of companies created goes up exponentially.
But the number of people who capture the value also goes up 100x.
I don’t believe in the “SaaS is dying” headline, I think it’s missing the point.
It’s simply that the power of SaaS is changing hands.
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@SharrellAnne2 I'm sorry but no your husband isn't worth 1 trillion more dollars
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Gold Star wife here.
When ISIS killed your wife, you supported going after the people responsible. You understood exactly why we were fighting and never called it “Israel’s war.”
My husband, Alan, was killed by Iranian proxies in Iraq. And now, after decades, the fight is finally leading back to the number one state sponsor of terrorism in the world.
You understood it when it was your loss. Now you’re minimizing it when it’s mine.
You don’t get to redefine this war just because it’s not your grief anymore.
Joe Kent@joekent16jan19
After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby. It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC. May God bless America.
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Teachers have simultaneously:
A) been stripped of the ability to do anything about poorly behaved students
B) been pressured to pass students no matter what
C) been tasks with taking on more and more responsibilities that used to belong to parents
D) been vilified and blamed for every problem in society.
So…why the job dissatisfaction? It’s a mystery!
Steve Magness@stevemagness
In 2008, 62% of teachers said they were very satisfied with their job. In 2022, that dropped to 12%. We've got a serious problem brewing in education...
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@expatanon Easy you're just buying your competitors productive capacity
And middle mgmt got a bad rap, but they kept people accountable
Now it will just be 50 people in a room and 3 people who are sort of in charge sometimes
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The real question here is: why in an allegedly cutthroat, hyper-capitalist economy has every large white-collar firm maintained a workforce 3x the size it actually needs to run its operations? Why would they stop now and not before?
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath
What if AI doesn’t need to show an immediate ROI but instead is the plausible deniability companies use to RIF 50% of the workforce they already knew did nothing??
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@PrefEquityPeter @HighyieldHarry Eh 1045 is early enough that you're a motivated person enough to be employable but can go to the office after lunch
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@HighyieldHarry This is also when unemployed people go to the gym
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They go to the gym around 10am-11:30am.
mubiouš@Mubarak_mubious
what is the clearest sign that someone is genuinely doing well in life ??
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@TkeeTennessee Well yes you will almost always have liabilities for which, directly or indirectly, your assets serve as collateral
It is still true that, as opposed to renting, you have substantial control over the home and equity that provides a return
Not a big RE guy but it has benefits
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Folks, Blackrock is NOT buying homes. Blackstone is buying homes. Blackrock does hold a 6.22% share in Blackstone. What people need to understand is the government can confiscate your home for failure to pay property taxes … so, you don’t really own anything. You will NEVER own the land your house sits on.
Wealthy Anon@wealthyanon
🚨 BREAKING: BlackRock just quietly filed to acquire $22 BILLION in single family homes across 14 states. That's ~47,000 homes that will NEVER be available for normal Americans to buy. Meanwhile, homeownership rates for Americans under 40 just hit an all-time LOW. You will own nothing. And they're not even hiding it anymore.
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@aakashgupta Much of this could simply be explained by mid tier firms hiring from mid tier schools scaling back operations
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The CS job market tells two stories, not one.
MIT’s placement rate is 97%. UMD just reported 93%. Purdue’s 2025 grads averaged $108K starting salary. Top-tier CS programs are operating like nothing happened.
Meanwhile this mid-tier state school went from 89% placement to 19% in four semesters. Average salary dropped $33K. Half the career fair was MLMs. That professor saying “we’re teaching students to build the systems that eliminate their own jobs” isn’t being dramatic. They’re describing the actual curriculum-to-employment pipeline at their institution.
The numbers explain why. CS degrees doubled from 52,000 to 113,000 per year over the last decade. Universities kept expanding enrollment because the demand signal from 2021 said “hire everyone.” Then three things happened simultaneously: tech companies overhired, corrected with 250K+ layoffs across 2024-2025, and started replacing junior engineering tasks with AI tooling. The entry-level funnel collapsed while the supply pipeline was locked in at peak capacity.
CS unemployment for recent grads hit 6.1% in 2025. That’s nearly double philosophy majors at 3.2%. The “learn to code” era produced a generation of graduates competing for jobs that are either gone or now require 3+ years of LLM integration experience they couldn’t possibly have.
The split is geographic and institutional. If you’re at a top-15 program in a tech corridor with two internships on your resume, the market looks tight but navigable. If you’re at a mid-tier state school with no internship pipeline, you’re watching the career fair fill up with insurance companies while your $140K in loans accrues interest.
That faculty meeting fight about “pivoting to AI collaboration skills” is the right debate happening two years too late. The schools that retooled their curriculum in 2023 will survive. The ones still teaching data structures as the core value proposition while job postings demand LLM orchestration are training students for a market that no longer exists.
And the parent meetings are going to get worse. Because the next cohort is already enrolled.
Kalshi Finance@Kalshi_Finance
A CS professor at a mid-tier state university just sent me their internal placement data Fall 2023: 89% of their graduates had offers by graduation. Average starting salary $94k Spring 2024: 71% placement rate. Average dropped to $78k Fall 2024: 43% placement rate. Those who got offers averaged $61k Spring 2025: 31% of graduates employed in software roles six months out This semester? 19% placement rate and falling Faculty meeting last Tuesday got heated when the department chair suggested "pivoting curriculum toward AI collaboration skills" One professor stood up and said "we're teaching students to build the systems that eliminate their own jobs" The career fair last month had 12 companies show up. Half were MLMs and insurance sales Students keep asking why they're learning data structures when the job postings all say "3+ years experience with LLM integration" Professor told me the hardest part is the parent meetings "My daughter took out $140k in loans for this degree and she's working at Starbucks" Meanwhile the university is still running ads promising "94% job placement rates in high-growth tech careers" The disconnect is crushing everyone involved Faculty knows the industry has fundamentally shifted but the marketing department is still selling the 2019 dream These kids mortgaged their futures for careers that evaporated while they were in class
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Every time I fire up Claude, I become more and more convinced of one thing. What’s currently happening in the oil market is almost irrelevant compared to what’s about to take place in the white-collar job market. Please do everything you can to own hard assets; the gates are about to close.
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@CynicalPublius The problem is assuming we can install a friendly regime without a 10 year / 10 trillion dollar project
The cost benefit to the US directly is so low
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I'm getting tired of explaining this, but I'll do it again because there is so much stupidity out there.
Here is the Seven Step Plan:
1. Decapitate Iran's leadership and destroy its military.
2. A new regime comes to power that will no longer fund Hamas/Hezbollah.
3. Without Iranian arms and cash, Palestinians have no choice but to make a lasting peace with Israel.
4. With the Palestinian conflict ended, the Gulf Arab countries will have the political breathing room to fully engage with Israel as a regional partner.
5. Peace in the Middle East, at long last.
6. Trump once again gets rebuffed for the Nobel Peace Prize in favor of a transgender Coptic nun in Madagascar who rescued a species of hermit crabs.
7. Profit.
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@heresyfinancial In theory you are correct
In practice the market is so broken some people are quite literally finding it cheaper to self-insure
Pay at time of service clinics, cash payments to hospitals for procedures, etc.
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This is true. Everyone together pays more for insurance than the insurance company pays out.
What you are paying for is risk transfer.
Without insurance, you risk large loss that may ruin you. But with insurance, you accept a guaranteed small loss to avoid the chance of a large loss.
The reason why this makes financial sense is because a large enough loss can ruin you and make it impossible to come back from. But the small cost to transfer that risk is affordable.
This is what’s known as a win-win
tomie@tomieinlove
What exactly is the point of buying insurance? Obviously, I’m going to pay more money than I get back, because otherwise the insurance company wouldn’t turn a profit. But for some reason everyone does it?
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@pzyduckie @Viggie_Smalls93 Florida is probably a bad example
Most of the state is essentially uninsurable
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The housing bubble isn’t popping— people who bought homes have either paid them off or can continue make payments because they are well-off. 2008 ain’t happening again
Nicholas J. Stelzner@stelzner_n1150
My advice to Gen Z is rent for another 2-3 years. You will be able to buy a home at a 50% discount after the housing bubble bursts. Even if you have the money, wait.
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