Curtis Knobbe

We've reached the point in the war when neither side has a good card to play and both think they can wait the other out, which would seem like a manageable stalemate except that the oil market is losing circa 10 million barrels of supply each day.

BREAKING: Illinois has just set a new all-time record for average diesel price at $5.928/gal, beating out 2022's record of $5.819/gal.

Extended interview: Former Nebraska senator Ben Sasse has metastatic pancreatic cancer. He spoke with 60 Minutes' Scott Pelley about where America has been and where it could still go.

Busy and chaotic morning in the Strait of Hormuz > handful of ships make it across the Strait this morning > then at least one Indian tanker reports it was attacked by Iran, forced to turn back > Iran declares the Strait is closed again

the us is sending 10,000+ more troops to the middle east while simultaneously pursuing ceasefire talks in islamabad. trump clearly wants to announce a quick win and deescalate. but worth remembering that the pentagon is preparing for "the possibility of additional strikes or ground operations."

there is only one problem, i dont see many people wearing NIKE shoes. Lots of ON Cloud and Hoka. Competition is real.

russia taking increased casualties over recent months because of ukrainian drones…now greater than russia’s troop replacement rate. plus ukraine recently captured a russian position using exclusively drones and unmanned ground vehicles—no soldiers. russia’s manpower advantage is now weaker than it has been. hard to see significant territorial gains for the russians in this environment.

We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem. My Penny Plan would cut just 6% a year and balance the budget in five years. That’s it. Show markets we’re serious about fiscal discipline, and the economy will respond. Time to hold the line on spending.

Imaginary exchange with a state legislator: Me: Why did you vote to legalize online sports betting? Them: It will generate $100 mln/year for programs that benefit our residents. Me: Where does that money come from? Them: A 10% tax on total gaming revenue. Me: What does that imply about total revenue? Them: Easy, $1 billion. Me: And where does that $1 billion come from? Them: Umm...

#galveston Easter weekend. High tide, full moon and a storm coming…or was it our #fishing skills?

In the light of #Easter, let us allow ourselves to be amazed by Christ! Let us allow our hearts to be transformed by his immense love for us! Let those who have weapons lay them down! Let those who have the power to unleash wars choose peace! Not a peace imposed by force, but through dialogue! Not with the desire to dominate others, but to encounter them!

rambling, unmoored and unserious. in way over his head. us allies deeply concerned by the 19 minute iran speech from the commander in chief.

The #wheat chart looks beautiful Clark

US stock market retracements since 1929...

Go Big Red!!!

The conventional wisdom in the 2010s was that energy independence would reduce US military involvement in the Middle East. In practice, high domestic production lowered the economic risks of disruption, making actions like a strike on Iran viable.

The loss of Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran urea exports equates to roughly 81M acres of U.S. corn nitrogen being lost annually. - S.A./Qatar/Iran 2024 urea exports - 13.5M - U.S. corn acre average = 155 lbs/actual N - 1T urea (920 lbs/actual N) = 6 acres - 13.5M x 6 = 81M acres

Comparing what is now happening with what has happened in analogous historical situations and triangulating my thinking with smart, well-informed leaders and experts has always helped me make better decisions. I have found that most wars are filled with big disagreements about what is likely to happen and big surprises. However, in the case of this Iran war, it is obvious, and there is near-universal agreement, that it all comes down to who controls the Strait of Hormuz. I hear from those who run governments, geopolitical experts, and people all over the world that if Iran is left with control over who can pass through the Strait of Hormuz, or is even left with the power to negotiate, there are four (4) key implications. I wrote about these consequences in my latest article. I want to emphasize that I am not political; I am just a practical person who has to bet on what will happen and has studied history to draw lessons that help me do that well, and I am now passing along my principles and thoughts that might help others navigate these tumultuous times. I remain ready, willing, and able to explore these things with you if you’d like to ask me questions in the comments. x.com/RayDalio/statu…

@JLinvilleFert @trentkelp @trend_bullish Thx Josh!

@trentkelp @trend_bullish It is a nitrogen plant. One of the plants that produces ammonium nitrate which is used in the war effort for explosives.

Potash????????