cludc

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cludc

cludc

@cl_udc

clean living under difficult circumstances

Katılım Şubat 2025
687 Takip Edilen428 Takipçiler
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cludc
cludc@cl_udc·
바이브 코딩 1.5개월 체험 후기 두 달 전까지만 해도 나는 개발의 'ㄱ'자도 모르던 문과 출신 경영지원 인력이었다. 지난달 초, Openclaw가 워낙 화제여서 생일 선물 겸 취미 삼아 맥 미니를 구매했다. 가지고 놀다 재미없으면 중고로 팔아도 본전이라는 생각으로 바이브 코딩을 처음 시작했는데, 개발에 대한 기초 지식이 전무하다 보니 처음 2주는 기본적인 환경 세팅을 하는 데만 다 써버렸다. 잠시 현업이 바빠지면서 잊고 지내다 돌아왔을 때, 이걸 계속해야 하나 잠깐 고민이 됐다. 그러다 에라, 며칠만 더 해보고 안 되면 맥 미니를 팔아버리자는 생각으로 평소에 해보고 싶었던 사이드 프로젝트를 하나 시작했다. 큰 기대 없이 하고 싶은 것들을 Claude에게 텍스트로 주절주절 풀어놨는데 잠시 고민하더니 '이러이러하게 구현할 수 있겠다'는 계획을 내놓는데 어? 이게 된다고? 싶으면서 흥미가 돋기 시작했다. 그렇게 한번 진행해보라고 시켜놓고 결과물을 받아보는데 처음엔 영 못 쓸 수준이었다. 그래도 흥미가 붙은 뒤라 차근차근 피드백을 주고 결과물을 다시 확인하는 과정 자체를 즐기며 계속해나가다 보니, 순탄하지는 않았지만 2주 만에 어찌저찌 눈코입은 다 갖춘 결과물을 하나 완성할 수 있었다. 첫 프로젝트를 완성하는 경험을 하고 나니 그 이후로는 속도가 붙기 시작했다. 원래였다면 개발자 한 명 지원 받아 반년은 잡아야 했을 프로젝트를, 이제는 길어야 일주일이면 파일럿으로 만들어낼 수 있게 됐다. 24시간 즉각 피드백이 가능한 개발자가 옆에 붙어 있으니 어쩌면 당연한 결과일까? 지금은 평소에 하던 작업을 에이전트에게 위임해 자동화하는 프로젝트만 벌써 세 개가 됐다. 내 개인 시간 기준으로만 따져도 생산성이 2,500% 이상 향상됐는데, 여기에 개발자 인건비와 매몰비용, 프로젝트로 인한 손익 개선까지 더하면 조직 차원에서 이를 적용했을 때 얻을 수 있는 생산성 향상의 규모는 얼마나 될지 가늠조차 되지 않는다. 물론 조직에서는 레거시 시스템, 내부통제 등 고려해야 할 요소가 많아 개인 수준의 생산성 향상만큼을 기대하기는 어려울 것이나 그렇다 해도 그 변화의 크기는 천지개벽 수준일 거라고 생각한다. 안타깝게도 지금 다니는 회사에서는 아직 업무상 에이전트 활용에 관한 정책이나 계획이 없는데, 뉴스에서 주요 기업들의 에이전트 도입 소식이 속속 들리는 걸 보면 나만 이렇게 느끼는 건 아닌 것 같다. 구성원 차원에서도 최소한의 주어진 일만 하는 사람과, 맡은 일의 의도와 결과물에 대해 깊이 고민하는 사람 사이의 퍼포먼스 차이는 앞으로 하늘과 땅 차이가 될 것이다. 그동안 성실하게 도메인 지식과 경험을 머릿속에서 구조화해온 사람일수록, 이런 도구가 주어졌을 때 할 수 있는 일이 폭발적으로 늘어나는 경험을 하게 될 것이다. 특히 본인이 사회초년생에 가깝다면 이런 변화를 지금 속한 조직에서 경험할 수 있다면 가장 좋겠지만, 그렇지 않은 경우 과감히 조직을 옮기는 것도 진지하게 고민해야 할 시점이 머지않아 올 것이다. 기존 조직이 이런 변화를 받아들일 때까지 기다리는 기회비용은 시간이 지날수록 점점 더 커질 것이기 때문이다. 3년 전에 LLM이 처음 대중에 공개됐고 2년 전에는 쓸만해지더니 1년 전에는 없으면 업무가 힘들어졌고 지금은 그 업무마저 에이전트에게 자동화 하고 있다. 앞으로는 1년 아니라 반년마다 어떤 변화가 나타날지 기대가 되면서도 걱정도 된다. 변화를 피할 수 없다면 눈, 귀, 마음을 열고 누구보다 빨리 받아들이며 즐겨야겠다.
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BUZZ
BUZZ@BUZZ__tiab·
네덜란드 $BESI 베시, 삼성전자 하이브리드 본딩 적용 여부 조만간 나온다 1/ 네덜란드 후공정 장비 기업 베시가 삼성전자의 하이브리드 본딩 기술 도입 관련 확정적 내용을 올해 중반에 발표할 것으로 보인다. 이는 이전에 언급한 2분기 전망과 큰 차이가 없다. 2/ 하이브리드 본딩은 기존 열압착 본딩과 달리 칩 다이를 쌓을 때 미세 금속 범프를 쓰지 않고 구리 표면을 직접 연결하는 기술이다. 이를 통해 HBM이나 고다층 낸드에서 성능 향상과 전력 소모 감소, 비용 절감을 기대할 수 있다. 3/ 일각에서는 JEDEC이 HBM 패키지 높이를 완화하려는 움직임 때문에 하이브리드 본딩 도입이 늦춰질 수 있다는 우려가 나왔다. 그러나 베시 CEO는 높이 완화가 한 메모리사에만 필요할 뿐 나머지 두 곳은 영향을 받지 않는다며 하이브리드 본딩 채택 속도가 변하지 않을 것이라고 강조했다. 4/ 하이브리드 본딩은 칩 간 간격을 7마이크로미터 수준으로 만들어 패키지 두께를 줄이는 데 유리하다. 베시는 기술적 이점이 점차 증명되고 있다며 삼성전자가 공개한 열 저항 개선과 고적층 지원 효과를 언급했다. 5/ 베시는 하이브리드 본딩 기반 HBM 대규모 양산 시대를 내년부터 예상한다. 세 메모리 제조사가 동일 기준으로 장비 평가를 진행 중이며, 최종 고객사 요구에 따라 올해 말까지 적층 제품을 확보해야 할 상황이다. 6/ 베시는 하이브리드 본딩 장비 시장에서 글로벌 최강자로 평가받으며, 다이 본딩 분야에서 정밀도와 생산 속도 우위를 가지고 있다. 미국 어플라이드 머티어리얼즈가 지분 9퍼센트를 보유한 최대주주다.
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
Netherlands' BESI: Samsung's Hybrid Bonding Adoption Decision Coming Soon Samsung Electronics is expected to introduce hybrid bonding technology — projected to be at the heart of next-generation semiconductor production — around the middle of this year. Dutch back-end equipment company BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI) stated during its Q1 earnings conference call on April 23 that "we should see more definitive news around the middle of this year regarding Samsung Electronics' (hybrid bonder adoption)." This is largely consistent with the outlook shared during the Q4/full-year 2025 earnings call in February, which indicated Samsung would adopt hybrid bonding in Q2. Unlike conventional thermo-compression (TC) bonding, hybrid bonding does not use fine metal bumps to connect stacked semiconductor dies. Instead, it is an advanced packaging technology that directly connects the copper (Cu) surfaces of two chips. When applied to High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and new high-layer-count NAND flash, it can deliver performance improvements, reduced power consumption, and cost savings — because the direct copper-to-copper connection enables higher integration density and shorter interconnect lengths. That said, some observers suggest that hybrid bonding adoption could be delayed as the Joint Electron Device Engineering Council (JEDEC) moves to relax packaging height limits for next-generation HBM. On this point, BESI CEO Richard Blickman explained, "The only reason (JEDEC) is looking to relax HBM thickness specifications is because one of the three memory companies needs that height for its process," adding that "the other two are not affected by this change." The major HBM players are Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. The implication is that two of these three are pursuing hybrid bonding adoption for reasons beyond height considerations. Hybrid bonding produces chip-to-chip gaps of around 7 micrometers (㎛), which makes it advantageous for reducing the total thickness (height) of HBM packages. JEDEC is reportedly considering raising the height limit from the current 775㎛ to either 825㎛ or 900㎛. Analysts argue that if the package height limit is relaxed, the lifespan of existing TC bonding technology would be extended, while the introduction of hybrid bonding could be delayed — since hybrid bonding would no longer be required simply to reduce thickness. Blickman emphasized, "The advantages of hybrid bonding over conventional TC bonding — faster circuit speeds, lower power consumption, and reduced heat — are being increasingly clearly demonstrated," and "as Samsung Electronics has publicly disclosed, because of these technical benefits, (the relaxation of HBM thickness limits) has not changed the pace or rate of hybrid bonding adoption." Samsung Electronics introduced its hybrid bonding technology for HBM at NVIDIA's annual developer conference, GTC 2026, last March. At the time, Samsung stated that hybrid bonding improves thermal resistance by more than 20% versus TC bonding and supports 16-high and higher stacks. Interconnect density is also higher. According to BESI, hybrid copper bonding (HCB) offers 15× the interconnect density of TC bonding and more than 100× the energy-efficiency performance (EEP). BESI expects mass production of hybrid-bonding-based HBM to begin next year. Blickman explained, "All three manufacturers are conducting equipment evaluations against the same criteria set by a specific end customer," and "that end customer has asked the memory makers to secure hybrid-bonded stacked products by the end of this year, with the goal of bringing finished products to market next year." The end customer in question is most likely NVIDIA. BESI is regarded as the global leader in the hybrid bonding equipment market. It holds a technological edge in both precision and throughput, particularly in die bonding equipment. Applied Materials, the world's largest semiconductor equipment company, holds a 9% stake, making it BESI's largest shareholder.
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Sam Badawi
Sam Badawi@Sam_Badawi·
MICRON $MU CEO SAYS THE COMPANY CAN ONLY SUPPLY 50-65% OF WHAT CUSTOMERS NEED RIGHT NOW This isn’t just Micron, Samsung, or SK Hynix. It’s a full-stack constraint that benefits the broader memory and storage ecosystem, including NAND from $SNDK and $WDC, capacity-driven disks from $STX, and system-level storage platforms and arrays from $P. AI demand for DRAM is outpacing supply by an “unprecedented” gap. New fabs take years, and the shortage is expected to persist beyond 2026.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
$MSFT prepaid $NBIS ~40% of the contract value upfront. That is well above the 15-25% range investors usually see in AI infrastructure deals and Nebius already delivered its second GPU tranche on time in February.
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
FED'S KASHKARI: IN SOME SCENARIOS FED MAY HAVE TO RAISE INTEREST RATES
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cludc
cludc@cl_udc·
전직장에서 SAP MM 모듈 쓰는데 제조원가명세서는 못뽑아서 자재수불부 출력한걸로 직접 와꾸 맞춰가며 수식으로 그렸던 기억이 나네요.. 이게 참 회사한테 딱히 눈에 보이는 부가가치 생기는 건 아니라서 신경쓰는 사람은 없는데 없으면 분석하기 너무 힘든데 막상 분석 못하면 개선도 어렵고 그렇죠.. 고생 많으십니다 그래도 직접 해보니까 제조/물류 관련해서는 흐름 다 보이고 이직할때도 써먹기 좋더라구요
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BUGI
BUGI@Bugi952·
회사가 Copilot 도입은 해줬는데 SAP 연동은 막아놨음 심지어 제조회사인데 MRP도 없어서 자재관리 다 엑셀로 돌리는중.. 불평불만하지말고 AI로 엑셀 자동화 하는거나 공부해봐야겠따
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kache
kache@yacineMTB·
We are going to see a huge shortage of microcontrollers soon
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Aaron
Aaron@Arronwei3n·
No one wants to leave the party at 3 AM. The ABF substrate party continues. _ Nomura: we observe that ABF substrate has completely turned into a seller’s market in the past two months. Substrates have become very important resources which all the major AI chip or CSP customers are eager to secure with LTAs for the next 3-7 years growth. Hence, we believe the LTAs signed during this period could be more comprehensive with potentially more protection power (e.g. prepayments, shorter payback periods, flexible pricing to reflect cost structure and market conditions) to substrate makers than those signed during the COVID cycle. Also, we observe most ABF substrate capacity in both first-tier and second-tier players has been “sold out” for this year, led by strong AI GPU/TPU/ASIC demand, as well as very strong CPU and switch demand (which was not fully expected last year).
Aaron tweet media
Aaron@Arronwei3n

Glass and Substrate will still face severe shortage in 2028.

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cludc@cl_udc·
@simplspark 이거 학교다닐때 소설로 읽었는데 웹툰으로 나왔군요 ㅎㅎ 신무협 전성기때 당당히 상위권에 있던 작품인데 몰입감이 대단하죠
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심프
심프@simplspark·
미쳤다…
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Macro_Lin | 市场观察员
从B200到Feynman,单个AI服务器机架里的功率半导体含量,从1.1万美元涨到19.1万美元,17倍。增长曲线的形态值得注意,B200到GB300阶段还是线性增长,从Rubin开始进入指数区间,Rubin Ultra到Feynman一代就翻了一倍。 GPU单卡功耗从几百瓦走向上千瓦,机柜总功率从几十kW到200kW以上,供电架构从传统48V向800V直流迁移,每一级电压转换都需要更多的功率器件来承接。看Feynman机架的构成,VRM占42%,PSU占26%,IBC占19%。VRM和PSU加起来将近七成,这是英飞凌的核心阵地,DrMOS和Smart Power Stage产品在这个环节的份额很难被撼动。而PSU(26%)和IBC(19%)合计的45%,对应的电压区间在100V到800V,正好落在GaN的甜区。英诺赛科2025年8月跟英伟达达成的800V直流架构合作,着力点就在IBC这一级,用100V GaN做48V到12V的转换,2025年已经实现规模化交付。数据中心内部有精密温控,电压集中在中压段,要的是MHz级开关频率和极致功率密度。GaN能让电感变压器的体积缩小一半以上,对寸土寸金的AI机柜来说这是刚需。SiC的主场在电动车主驱和光伏逆变器那边,高压、大电流、高温,跟数据中心的需求画像完全不同。 第三代半导体两条路线,SiC走车,GaN走算力。英飞凌两头都有布局,英诺赛科All in GaN。每个Feynman机架快20万美元的功率半导体含量,这个数字还没被认真定价过。
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Jukan
Jukan@jukan05·
"Even China Has No Volumes"... CCL Shortage Reaches Crisis Level A PCB manufacturer in the Seoul metropolitan area recently placed advance orders worth 10 billion won with two Taiwanese CCL (copper clad laminate) producers, EMC and TUC. The volume is more than five times the company's average monthly usage of 1.5 to 2 billion won. The company's CEO said, "We placed bulk orders out of concern about a CCL shortage, but we have no idea when they'll actually arrive," adding, "I've been in the PCB business for over 20 years, and this is the first time we've been unable to manufacture products because we couldn't get CCL." CCL Import Prices Break Through $20,000 Per Ton Prices for CCL — a core PCB material — are surging as supply falls dramatically short of demand. CCL is a panel made by laminating a thin copper foil onto an insulating substrate, and it functions as the key building-block material for PCBs. The shortage has spread as demand has surged simultaneously across major advanced industries, including AI semiconductors, data centers, and autonomous vehicles. According to data released by the Korea Customs Service on May 3, the import unit price of CCL came to $20,728 per ton in March — up 74.5% from $11,880 in the same month last year. This is the first time the CCL import unit price has broken above $20,000/ton since the relevant statistics began being compiled in 2000. The biggest driver behind the spike in CCL import prices is rising demand for CCL used in AI chips. On top of this, the use of high-spec CCL is also increasing across 5G/6G telecom infrastructure, automotive autonomous driving systems, and data center servers. CCL Players' Share Prices Rally Sharply Korea's CCL supply chain is built around copper foil suppliers (Lotte Energy Materials, SK Nexilis), CCL manufacturers (Doosan, LG Chem), and PCB substrate manufacturers (Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Daeduck Electronics). PCBs are split between premium products — which go into the most advanced GPUs such as Nvidia's Blackwell — and general-purpose products. Premium semiconductor substrates in this top tier use CCL based on high-grade T-glass material, while small- and mid-sized domestic PCB makers use E-glass-based CCL to produce general-purpose PCBs. As demand for high-spec PCBs has surged and unit prices have jumped, CCL-related companies have moved quickly to reallocate their limited production lines toward high value-added products. This is the backdrop to the spike in CCL export prices: last month, the average CCL export unit price stood at $30,998, up 65.2% year-on-year. Companies in the global CCL manufacturing supply chain are seeing both earnings and share prices rally sharply. Industry participants attribute the CCL price hikes primarily to PCBs going into Nvidia GPUs. Doosan, known to be the sole supplier of CCL for Blackwell, saw its share price jump from 152,300 won at the end of April 2024 to 1,596,000 won at the end of last month — a more than 10x gain over two years. Over the same period, Samsung Electro-Mechanics rose 5.3x and Daeduck Electronics rose 4.8x. Even Pivoting to China — "No Volumes Available" By contrast, companies left out of the advanced industries are unable to secure adequate CCL supply, with some now facing the prospect of having to halt factory operations. Major Korean semiconductor equipment makers, in particular, are reportedly suffering from CCL supply constraints. Some companies are reportedly switching from ocean freight to air freight in an effort to pull forward their CCL delivery schedules. One industry source said, "In the past, you could secure the volumes you wanted just by waiting about a month after placing an order, but now even if you place an order today, you have to wait at least six months to receive any volumes." Soaring CCL prices are also a heavy burden. With FX rates and oil prices also rising, not only product prices but also transport costs are climbing sharply. With CCL supply schedules becoming increasingly uncertain, many firms are worried about missing the PCB delivery timelines they originally committed to. Another industry source said, "We've secured Chinese suppliers in addition to our existing channels, but we've been hit by a string of delivery-delay notices recently. There's no clear-cut countermeasure, and it feels hopeless."
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GONOGO
GONOGO@GONOGO_Korea·
프로젝트 롱충이 프리덤 (Project Freedom) * 중동 시간 기준 월요일 아침에 시작 * 중립적인 상업 선박들을 호르무즈 해협 밖으로 호위하기 위해 미 해군 군함을 파견 예정 * 만약 이란이 통과시키면, 봉쇄는 깨지고 숏충이 사망 * 만약 이란이 공격하면, 미군은 대응하고 롱충이 사망
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SemiVision👁️👁️
SemiVision👁️👁️@semivision_tw·
The industry has undergone three major rounds of technological transformation. Driven by environmental protection requirements and the continuously evolving needs of downstream end markets, copper-clad laminate technology has gradually advanced from conventional boards toward lead-free and halogen-free materials, thinner and lighter structures, and high-frequency/high-speed performance. In recent years, with the rapid development of 5G, automotive electrification and intelligence, AI, and the broad expansion of related end applications, downstream customers have raised higher requirements for copper-clad laminate materials, leading to a significant increase in demand for high-frequency and high-speed boards. open.substack.com/pub/tspasemico…
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Citrini
Citrini@citrini·
The best performing thematic basket in our universe since the recent market lows is our “AI Power Plumbing” basket - comprised of analog semis names making capacitors, PSUs, inductors, magnetics, MLCCs and discrete power semis. We were a bit early to this - at the end of 2024 , we flagged the whole analog stack between the grid and the GPU as boring, deeply cyclical, and an asymmetric corner of the AI buildout the market kept ignoring because of a dual China/Auto-cycle overhang. It took a little longer than we anticipated, but the analog cycle finally turned and content per server keeps climbing. Names like TXN, MCHP, STM, ON, AOSL, VSH, DIOD, ADI, Infineon, MPWR, VICR, Murata Manufacturing, TDK, ALGM, WOLF, Nippon Chemicon, Sumida etc…a lot of quality names that still have a long way to go to match the re-rating of names in memory, optics and compute.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Key Events This Week: 1. March JOLTS Job Openings data - Tuesday 2. April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI data - Tuesday 3. April ADP Nonfarm Employment data - Wednesday 4. April Jobs Report - Friday 5. Total of 11 Fed speaker events this week 6. ~20% of S&P 500 companies report earnings The labor market is in the spotlight.
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