Collin 🔺

Virtually nobody is pricing in what's coming in AI. I wrote an essay series on the AGI strategic picture: from the trendlines in deep learning and counting the OOMs, to the international situation and The Project. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: The Decade Ahead

Why I’ll be buying $TSLA before the Q2 print on Wednesday: - So, I’m at the point now where I want to really start building out a Tesla position in a serious way. I’ve had exposure in various moments over the past 5 years, but now that my core positions on $PLTR $HOOD and $NVDA are built, I am ready to begin actually focusing on Tesla. While the stock was great for anyone who bought before 2021, since then, it’s just not been the best unless you got the lows. I think the next 5 years will be incredible for Tesla & that’s why I want to begin building a bigger position. - I know Q2 is not going to be good numbers wise. Quite frankly, the rest of 2025 might not be good numbers wise, but I believe there are 2 verticals that will explode in the next five years: robotaxis and humanoid robots. Now, there are MANY question marks to how Tesla will scale these, but the fundamental reality is that this company simply is becoming the true physical manifestation of AI. You cannot deny that. As a result, the question becomes if Tesla will play a MAJOR role in this upcoming AI revolution? I think the answer to that is yes. The P/E won’t show that. Neither will their net income margins. But that S-curve of growth that Tesla had 5 years ago is coming back and it will be explosive. - Tesla is solving robotaxis with neural nets vs lidar. I think this is the right way to approach the market. I took a trip from NJ to Boston earlier this year. Five hours and zero interventions. FSD is real. I use it everyday. I’d cancel my netflix before I cancel FSD. Autonomy will come to the entire world and Tesla’s approach to it is intrinsically superior in my opinion. - Elon has said everything you could possibly say to tank this stock 40-50% like having a public fight with the President of the United States, wanting to launch a new party…and the max pain was $275. There is no brand damage. The street is looking forward. - The energy business is growing the fastest even if it contributes the least to revenue but I think this will change as demand for AI means more energy is needed over the next decade. - Optimus takes this company to $20-$25T. Seriously, the math on humanoid robotics is mind blowing. Obviously this will take time and it’s not happening overnight but if Elon shows off a purchase order for hundreds of thousands of bots…over the coming years from multiple companies…the street will have no idea how to value the company on this other than higher. - The option premiums on covered calls for Tesla are very nice. I think it will be range bound from $280-$350 until we see meaningful earnings inflection, but I could also be wrong just based on investor appetite to pull forward growth. I’ll be using conservative calls to offset my cost basis because even $400 strikes on Tesla from these levels are paying incredible premiums. - I don’t think we see the S&P go to 7000 and $TSLA not participate. - Almost $40B in cash, I believe they will strategically allocate it where necessary, hopefully in an investment in xAI but regardless, they have the money needed to grow and cushion any major moves they need to make. - Finally, can’t bet against Elon.