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Joshua Cole
695 posts
Joshua Cole
@combinatoricole
Building an equilibrium layer for AI. Game theory × LLMs Ex-Meta • Ex-Amazon
Katılım Haziran 2010
41 Takip Edilen49 Takipçiler
@HardwireMedia that is why we end up valuing abstraction so highly. it reduces complexity. and because we value it so highly, overly abstracted problems feel important, like a building block, like something if we argue over more maybe we'll get some place interesting
English
It is actually important not to evaluate them. game theoretic reasoning is expensive. you have to anticipate strategies, effectively finding fixed points, in a very branchy structure. its frequently so computationally expensive that there are more branches than there are atoms in our universe
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These red-button reframings only make their case look worse.
Of course framing matters. People are programmed not to jump into wood chippers or in front of trains. But in the original Tim Urban framing, a ton of kids would pick blue because it sounds like the brave, obvious “save everyone” choice.
They’re not thinking game theory. They’re thinking: help the group, do the right thing, stop the train.
So choosing red in that framing is basically abandoning the people most likely to be fooled by the premise, including children. That’s why the framing matters. It can literally create different moral realities.
Red voters are chalked.
Orwell & Goode@OrwellNGoode
English
@MilanoTruffles The buttons are small mobile buttons next to each other on your smart phone keyboard. The moment you tap one, it will trigger, no taksiebacksies. You drank an energy drink that day. Your fingers are trembling. If you choose to vote red, you will, 10% of the time, choose blue.
English
Oh my god. The level of reading comprehension is lower than I expected. If everyone chooses red, everyone lives. There is no dilemma.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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If you take no limit hold em it has a different payoff structure betting rules from limit hold em, but the abstracted card structures association with terminals is still the same.
You can have abstraction that is homomorphic and reusable across different games, while still being different games.
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No. Game theory was already calculating fixed points with respect to strategies that reference each other.
Actual issue: the buttons are functioning as action abstractions, not game definitions. So the homomorphic map being equivalent doesn't keep the game equivalent.
You can see this more clearly if you uncoarsen some of the re-framings, a reasonable thing which you're actually supposed to do in game theory when you have the necessary capacity to keep the solution tractable.
English
The game theory of red and blue buttons involves predicting what other people will do. And what other people will do requires them to predict what other people will do. So you have a recursive prediction of other behaviour. That's why it's so sensitive to framing.
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@Lepandk @eigenrobot This is fundamentally a different problem. Raids are full of trolls.
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Everyone in the raid has to take a vote by deciding to stay in to dps a 3% hp Baron Geddon or leave his AOE. If more than 50% of the raid stays in then everyone survives, but if less than 50% of the raid stays then everyone who stayed in dies. Do you stay in to DPS or leave?
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@chaitinsgoose That is why I force people to specify the game they are using, both on the abstracted level and the less abstracted level, when dealing with intractable problems. Its also why I have the study layer; there is more then one game, truly.
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@chaitinsgoose Even homomorphic action abstraction can result in different real time solves because they're leveraged by a less abstracted solver for strategy refinement.
As an example, you can use the same card abstraction for two different card games.
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i realized framing impacts me too
there is an election. if candidate A wins, nothing happens. if candidate B wins, he kills all those who voted A. who do you vote for?
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@TheManlet_King The relevant term from game theory is trembling hand equilibrium.
English
So blue button pushers legitimately believe there are already people on the track by default?
Explains a lot.
FwogEnjoyer@doxntme
What is it with red button pushers rewriting the question, like you're presenting an entirely different scenario
English
@Prazkat you can use my site to model some of it if you're confused about game theory but its kinda silly as questions go; better off modeling actually important things
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Estoy entendiendo mal la teoría de juegos aquí?
Porque no veo literalmente ningún incentivo para apretar el botón azul.
Si azul gana vive, pero si pierde muere.
Si rojo gana vive, y si pierde también vive. Rojo nunca está en riesgo. Presionas rojo.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
Español
@DexterWard6 @TheCartoonLoon i say this not to rebuke the choice of red, but because people are really overestimating how rational they actually are. they aren't really modeling very well on either side of the debate
English
@DexterWard6 @TheCartoonLoon if you model it as a binary game you're actually wrong since there are billions of participants. some of the potential choice chains involve things like: bunch of sane people who wouldn't do nuclear war are removed, hard-liner that wants death to enemies becomes next in chain.
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Blue literally won the twitter poll and this is most cynical place on earth and somehow red voters seem to think that its impossible for blue to win.
Blue already won guys.
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@theblessedsalt You were not wearing glasses. The 8 looked like a 5.
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@theblessedsalt There is a bush. You are a deer. The bush is actually a tiger. Should you walk up to the bush? Monkeys are screaming.
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You’re a fish. All fish must choose to swim around the net or swim into the net. The net will fail to lift if more than half the fish swim into it. If less than half the fish swim into it, the net will lift and all those fish will die.
Do you swim around the net or into the net?
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