David Gold

@YangDawsonXC Goodness I must try this out!

Severe Weather Forecasting Game v1.05 released! Map verification added. Your drawn map is now compared with a Modified Practically Perfect Hindcast model. Also added alpha versions for Linux and MacOS Sonoma 14.0+ which you can try now! This will be the final update for a while.

@phillywxguy_ I’ve tried to guard against that in my composite engine at gsdmsolutions.com by applying by default detrending on the 2-m temperature. composites:

I agree with this, and I’ve fallen “victim” to it as well. This has not been necessary a cooler than average summer, with the east being warmer than average for most of June and obviously July as well with the heatwave. No too El Niño’s are the same.

@Atrarbfraga @webberweather It’s higher latitude impacts almost certainly will

@webberweather @dgoldweather Cmcc model in niño 3.4 showing anomaly at least + 5,3 degrees. Perhaps this el niño Will delay into northern hemisphere summer 2027 and perhaps early fall.

Lol yikes. The mean warm pool is incredibly far east at this stage of our El Nino event. As high as those SSTa are in the East Pacific now, this Super El Nino is honestly just getting started. Just wait til we advect in those 29-30C SSTs to the east later this year 😬 😳

@webberweather If that’s a Modoki, I’m a mimosa.

In a tradition like no other, East Coast snow weenies are already claiming this year’s El Niño is a “modoki” event, when much like 2023-24, that couldn’t be further from the truth. The wishcasting for 2009-10 all over again never stops (even w/ some pro mets) 🙄

@Weather_West Part of a regional circulation response to potent background/low-frequency forcing over the C-E tropical Pacific associated with El Niño.

New Weather West post is now out: Exceptionally broad and persistent west-central U.S. ridging to bring periods of elevated heat and monsoon moisture to CA and the SW, with record heat across Intermountain West. Plus: dry lightning risk in California? weatherwest.com/archives/43915

@BigJoeBastardi @Superchri90 @PvForecast Yeah in such scenarios the jet often outruns the convection and firehoses CONUS

@dgoldweather @Superchri90 @PvForecast phases 6/7 in winter are the kiss off death once past December, where 7 is still favorable

wow if this was in #winter @Superchri90

The strong El Niño background state looks to be relentless - probably indefinitely!

@MichaelMarz1 You have some of the most spectacular tornado vids and pics ever seen.

most of the time, when I post an old tornado video or picture (not just Ashby) across all different platforms of social media, I’ll see a lot of instances of “how have I never seen this before?!” in the comments section - there is constantly a new customer - sure, you’re gonna come across some eye rolling too, because a lot of your audience has probably seen what you’re posting hundreds of times - but I’d suggest to continue posting your old, cool tornado videos and pictures whenever you feel like it! You really never know whose eyes it might come across or what it might lead to -

@Superchri90 @PvForecast 🎯

@PvForecast Yes, but be careful because too strong angular momentum with GWO in stationary phases 6-7 can lead to a very strong jet stream, as is happening in the southern hemisphere with a positive SAM. It also takes proper interaction with Rossby waves (wave breaking)

@GervaiseRich @webberweather @WXL39_nerd Yes he’s amazing

@webberweather @WXL39_nerd @dgoldweather I love your posts Eric. You are so informative, and I have learned a lot from them.

A very El Nino-like AAM/GWO & MJO background state is driving a large component of the record-breaking ridge over the Upper Midwest next week. Left image from @dgoldweather’s site gsdmsolutions.com

Wow! Thank you so much for this! I’ve tried to build something that really meets the needs of those of us that love trying to connect the dots when making forecasts without jumping around to 1000 different sites or relying on data sources prone to frequent disruptions and brittle processing (eg OLR). It’s so gratifying to get some validation that this is meeting some needs!

DAVID GOLD ...just signed up the year!! What you designed/ built here is absolutely amazing. This is one of the most easy to use and well designed weather atmospheric websites I have ever seen. I am very happy to get a subscription for the full year. I will be sharing and using your images as much as I can on my social media platforms and I hope to drive as much business as I can your way. I am surprised that you haven't been bought out yet by one of the other big companies. Anything I can do to help please feel free to ask!! WXRISK

While the atmosphere has likely reached peak AAM loading, the circulation is going to remain in a configuration consistent with a very eastward shifted Walker cell and seasonally enhanced/intense belts of subtropical westerly wind flows for the remainder of boreal summer. The expected regional responses are likely still well captured by variations of MJO 8-1 and high amplitude GWO 7-8, respectively.

Well as I said the vast majority of surviving video comes from chase partners. There are a couple tornadoes on my list where I was solo and had no recording device at all! The 93 Big Spring tornado was a fat cone that looked like 5/23/24 El Dorado and lasted 12 minutes. I gave the IMAX guy a three minute warning. We got set up & film rolling right as the rope out ended.

@dgoldweather @Enhanced_wx are there any vintage tornado clips you did get?

Top 10 tornadoes I have chased: 1. Dimmitt, TX 6-2-1995 2. Red Rock, OK 4-26-1991 3. Allison, TX 6-8-1995 4. Webb, Iowa 6-11-2004 5. Colton, SD 6-7-1993 6. Big Spring, NE 6-10-2004 7. Hill City, KS 6-9-2005 8. Big Spring, NE 6-12-1993 9. Ollie, MT 6-20-1999 10. Waterloo, IA 5-11-2000

@henner1023 Well at least one person does

@dgoldweather No one knows what you just wrote

While the atmosphere has likely reached peak AAM loading, the circulation is going to remain in a configuration consistent with a very eastward shifted Walker cell and seasonally enhanced/intense belts of subtropical westerly wind flows for the remainder of boreal summer. The expected regional responses are likely still well captured by variations of MJO 8-1 and high amplitude GWO 7-8, respectively.

@thestormandsky @wxmann I know some chasers were blocked by construction traffic

@dgoldweather @wxmann Umscheid just missed it. Think Jay was with him. Saw the rope from a distance. Chasing is 99% just hug the roll clouds. That location just loves to manage.

The Columbus, NE tornado of June 1998 would fix me

@davis_wx The ENSO state had reversed by then.

1983 was a “super El Niño” year and one of the least active on record. 1983 also saw Hurricane ALICIA slam into Galveston Island as a 115mph Cat 3 major hurricane.

@thestormandsky @wxmann Not I. I would have for sure followed the 78 TD parcel into that WF.

@dgoldweather @wxmann 22z and 0z surface. Wonder how many would have been too far west. Especially given just how fast it did it.

Yeah processes are going to act to rapidly reduce AAM for a while, but not to the point where the circulation goes into a low AAM state. Will probably see some fluctuation in the intensity and coherence of the l-s heat engine tied to ENSO as well. Accordingly can expect some wave pattern adjustments. This can include flexes of the ridge eastward into the northern and even NE US at times as modeled for next week. But not durable.

@dgoldweather Interesting, JMA tries to keep it in 7 for the next 3-4 weeks. I like it moving over (high correlation in close development with the Vitarts scale, so concern about in-close spin-up later in the month). JMA tho wants it stalled

@wxmann Yeah that sounds right. But I think there was even more flow aloft ripping across the warm sector on 6/23/98 if I recall

@dgoldweather Similar to the Pilger-Coleridge 2014 sequence with massive CAPE on a diffuse warm front I assume?

Some plausible composites for NH z500’. We may see regional circulation responses with some of these characteristics at many times during the next few weeks, including: * an extended or strengthened Pacific subtropical jet * increased Rossby wave activity entering the North Pacific waveguide *cyclonic height anomalies over the extratropical central/eastern Pacific *anticyclonic wave breaking or ridge amplification downstream toward Alaska and western Canada