Conor Parle

2.1K posts

Conor Parle

Conor Parle

@conorparle

Economist - covering Eurozone and UK, formerly @ecb and Central Bank of Ireland. Interested in text mining, Eintracht, St. Pats and misc. sport. 🇮🇪 in 🇬🇧.

London Katılım Kasım 2011
1.2K Takip Edilen709 Takipçiler
Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@minevian @florianederer Oh I agree with you! Best format possible given limited number of match days, ideal world if more match days available would be fewer but larger groups, would reduce the disparity between worst and best teams in each pot as each pot would be smaller.
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minevian
minevian@minevian·
@conorparle @florianederer Yes but that’s football & why it’s literally called the luck of the draw! Plus, they were in those pots for a reason! But there’s nothing random about the format itself! The group stages are probably as fair as they can be!
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Florian Ederer
Florian Ederer@florianederer·
Re-upping this from 6 months ago. UEFA World Cup qualifying is ridiculously random.
Florian Ederer@florianederer

UEFA World Cup qualifying is a joke. Everything depends on the draw. Tiny groups of just 4 or 5 teams, only 6 or 8 games per team. One unlucky draw and you’re out. Pure randomness. Now compare that with CONMEBOL: 10 teams, 18 games each, 90 games total. All that just to eliminate 3 teams while the 7th-place team even gets a playoff against New Zealand. One system tests endurance and quality over nearly two years. The other is basically a coin flip.

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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@minevian @florianederer Nothing necessarily wrong! Just shows the element of luck - Pot 2 that time had France and England creating possible v tough groups Compare the pot 1,2,4 combination of Netherlands, France and Greece to an equally possible combo from those pots of Hungary, Finland, Faroe Islands
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@ClausVistesen Kind of funny that post a “dovish to neutral” DMP and baileys comments we are trading at more hikes priced in
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@ClausVistesen Won’t lie, you guys going out to the Czechs after us blowing a 2-0 lead while well on top against them as well as blowing the lead in penalties further adds to the sting of last Thursday…
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Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen@ClausVistesen·
Denmark and Italy dumped out of WC playoffs by Czechia and Bosnia an Herzegovina ->
GIF
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@CrisisStudent We are basically experiencing a lagged version of what happened with the BoE Member paragraphs meant individual hawkish views were frontloaded, just had to wait for the flow of speakers to see the same for the ECB
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Kamil Kovar
Kamil Kovar@CrisisStudent·
Well, while the press release and conference were on the dovish side, the comments since then are mostly on the hawkish side. Feels like they wanted to avoid overreaction yesterday, so went dovish, but are actually hawkish... 1/2
Kamil Kovar@CrisisStudent

This communication was definitively more dovish than I thought (or feared?). The ECB is "well positioned", stresses the medium-term inflation for which the implications are ambiguous, while downplaying importance of near-term implications. 1/

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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@fwred @CrisisStudent @Lagarde Think severe and adverse have monetary policy assumptions in line with baseline rather than no change (subtle but important difference from stance perceptions!)
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Frederik Ducrozet
Frederik Ducrozet@fwred·
🇪🇺 ECB's risks scenarios, including a severe shock generating a mild recession, a rise in unemployment and core inflation peaking at 4%. The latter don't include any monetary policy change as @Lagarde noted, as opposed to the staff which accounts for about 40bp of rate hikes.
Frederik Ducrozet tweet media
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@jimmy__mcintosh Was one of the most insane subways I’ve ever seen, felt like it existed in a different universe
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Jimmy McIntosh
Jimmy McIntosh@jimmy__mcintosh·
Also Metro Food & Wine with an entire Subway inside of it was amazing
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Jimmy McIntosh
Jimmy McIntosh@jimmy__mcintosh·
I don’t want a Gail’s in Archway, but not for the same reasons as everyone else.
Jimmy McIntosh tweet media
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@ClausVistesen Bring on April’s SAFE survey (great example of the benefits of switching to quarterly!)
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Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen@ClausVistesen·
Probably a fair reflection of the ECB's reaction function , though the definition of "persistence" is of course key. Mar-May HICP at 2.3-to-2.5% with the current futures curve in oil. Selling price expectations for March now key to watch (input price costs will soar).
Isabel Schnabel 🇪🇺🇺🇦@Isabel_Schnabel

In particular, we must carefully monitor the persistence of the energy price shock, its impact on inflation expectations and any indication that firms start passing through higher input costs to their customers. 20/20

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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@jimmy__mcintosh Brilliant shout. Gaffneys isn’t far from there and en route to the city centre and is also class. If you are more central later try cumiskeys on constitution hill - still can get a pint of beamish for under a fiver. Wellington house (Glynn’s) also worth a shout, bit more chaotic.
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Jimmy McIntosh
Jimmy McIntosh@jimmy__mcintosh·
What a pub The Goose in Marino is by the way
Jimmy McIntosh tweet mediaJimmy McIntosh tweet mediaJimmy McIntosh tweet mediaJimmy McIntosh tweet media
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Conor Parle retweetledi
Ben Zaranko
Ben Zaranko@BenZaranko·
Less than a week left to apply for this, the most exciting job in UK fiscal policy available right now. (Chair of the OBR is a close second). app.beapplied.com/apply/4t6eys2l…
Ben Zaranko@BenZaranko

🚨Rare and exciting opportunity 🚨 We're looking to hire an exceptional economist to work on fiscal policy at the IFS. We don't do this often. It's a chance to shape, carry out and communicate research on some of the highest-profile topics in UK economic policy. [1/4]

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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@ClausVistesen Increasingly of this opinion, helps spoofers generate obvious spoof, but clear efficiency gains in fields you already know (mainly because what makes zero sense becomes super obvious)
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@ClausVistesen Considering the “upper percentile” forecasts in the macro projections sensitivity analysis in Dec had an average of 1.21 in 2026 knocked 0.1pp off inflation alone - this really adds to the case for a reasonably firm inflation downgrade in the March projections
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Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen@ClausVistesen·
EURUSD making another run for 1.20 here, which I believe is the ECB's 'pain threshold'. I think medium term inflation is biased above 2%, but with growth expectations now a lot higher for H1-26 and inflation poised to dip below 2%, the probability of one more cut from the ECB is underpriced.
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Conor Parle retweetledi
Thorsten Benner
Thorsten Benner@thorstenbenner·
Good to make a mental note of those with this peculiar mix of supreme confidence & getting things wrong.
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@ClausVistesen December was overly adjusted upwards, Sept forecasts look way more credible
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Claus Vistesen
Claus Vistesen@ClausVistesen·
The near-zero probability attached to an ECB rate cut seems like a sitting duck here. The Dec HICP has all but guaranteed a downward revision to inflation in March and then we have a tariff scare, though on the latter the ECB will be sensitive to the net inflationary effect/fiscal response. A more closed fiscally hot EZ economy is not conducive for lower rates, on a 12-18m basis at at least.
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Edmund Heaphy
Edmund Heaphy@edmundheaphy·
Fascinated that this guy manages to take the most negative and pessimistic take on everything EU-related, be it monetary policy instruments or troop deployments
Wolfgang Munchau@EuroBriefing

The dispatch of European troops to Greenland symbolises the reaction-mode nature of the European foreign policy. Whether it is Ukraine, Greenland, the relationship with China, or industrial policies, there is no strategy anywhere. eurointelligence.com

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Didzy Enjoyer
Didzy Enjoyer@kkkeelers·
Another brilliant win for Irish darts, probably a year late in all honesty! Get in there lad @S_McGuirk180 , there won’t be a drop of Guinness left untouched in Dignam’s tonight! 🔵⚪️
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Michael Brown
Michael Brown@MrMBrown·
@darioperkins 1. Will people stop posting dual axis charts? 2. Will people stop deflating things by the Fed balance sheet? 3. Will people stop pricing everything in terms of gold?
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Dario Perkins
Dario Perkins@darioperkins·
What are you 3 big macro questions for 2026? Mine: 1. Will the AI bubble burst? 2. Will US employment contract, or reaccelerate? 3. What will the post-Powell Fed look like?
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Conor Parle
Conor Parle@conorparle·
@jimmy__mcintosh Just got this one on my feed which is slop quoting completely unrelated slop
Conor Parle tweet media
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Keşfet

@minevian @florianederer @ClausVistesen @CrisisStudent @danobrien20 @fwred @Lagarde @jimmy__mcintosh