Qasim Bolanle Sanni

Re: Moonsighting Fiasco [February 17/18, 2026!] By now, it should be clear that lunar observatories in most Middle Eastern countries rely on infrared (IR) imaging to detect the crescent within the IR-spectrum during the day (see: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Bahrain, and Jordan: x.com/MuslimBiblioph…). Unlike visible spectrum sighting, IR enables daytime detection, even at the moment of conjunction. This technique was famously demonstrated by the 2013 daytime IR crescent from France (a method since adopted across the Gulf): astrophoto.fr/new_moon_2013j…. This methodology was further confirmed by Br. Simwal (of the National Moonsighting Committee of Nigeria: x.com/Simwal/status/…). While I haven’t yet found a public press release showing an IR crescent image from February 17 (they seem to have released it for the following morning! link above), the underlying technical capability is well-established. It is important to note that the infrared/IR spectrum (thermal radiation) is invisible to the naked eye and requires specialized sensors. By using this method, one can observe an "IR crescent" on the day of conjunction without fail, even with a separation of only 1°. Sufficient image processing, integration time, and denoising can yield a detection (because IR scatters less than visible light, Rayleigh scattering: I_scatter ~ 1/lambda^4). This explains why Saudi Arabia consistently announces sightings despite visibility plots suggesting otherwise; their reports align with the pre-calculated Umm Al-Qura calendar (ummalquracalendar.com), which is based on conjunction rather than optical visibility. That being said, a lot of people miss this, but in astronomy, certain phenomena are deterministic and can be calculated with extreme precision (years in advance): 1. Sunset and sunrise 2. Moonset and moonrise 3. Solar and lunar orbital motions 4. Solar zenith and conjunction However, other phenomena are probabilistic and require empirical confirmation; the primary example is the first visibility of the crescent moon. (Other phenomena, like the onset of Fajr or Isha, are also probabilistic but tend to gain certainty over time.) So, while visibility plots (webspace.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/isla…) and sunset/moonset timings (x.com/MuslimBiblioph…) can be used to rule out impossible reports, the mere presence of a "visibility band" over a geographic location does not guarantee a sighting; it still requires human confirmation. Furthermore, these visibility bands are often misunderstood because the map itself represents a spherical Earth projected onto a flat plane, often viewed through the narrow window of UTC or the International Date Line (which is arbitrary: see 1/ and 2/ x.com/MuslimBiblioph… ). Consequently, it is scientifically inaccurate to claim that a sighting in one location automatically begins the new month for all "global sighting" adherents within a UTC/International window. A more physics-based approach would be that only locations/timezones west of the confirmed sighting, within that probabilistic band, can validly invoke a global sighting (harmonizing both local and global). Advocates of Global sighting should recognize that medieval scholars' opinions on global sighting did not account for the scope of the globe, time zones, etc. So scholars should not lazily juxtapose traditional global sighting opinions without factoring in the physics mentioned above. So, while these nuances could be factored into modern calculations, the science is often misapplied by calculation advocates to force alignment with the Umm Al-Qura calendar. For example, the ISNA calculation method dictates that if a conjunction occurs anywhere in the world before 12:00 UTC and there is a possibility of a sighting (x.com/MuslimBiblioph…), as was the case this year - it was over the Pacific Ocean in the Feb. 17 UTC window, they will declare the new month (webspace.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/isla…). These arbitrary rules conveniently sync the ISNA calendar with Saudi Arabia’s IR-based sightings and Umm Al-Qura conjunction-based calendar. This also explains why ISNA/Saudi calendars line up all the time! This creates immense social pressure for Muslims and Crescent committees who follow either global or local naked-eye sightings. Every year, a discrepancy arises: 1. Ramadan begins on a different day, but Eids align (e.g., 2026). 2. Ramadan begins together, but the Eids diverge (e.g., 2025). Therefore, I advocate for a scientifically grounded approach that remains in line with normative Sunni tradition. What we are seeing now is a misapplication of science. We are essentially repeating the shift the Jewish community made during the post-Second Temple period under Hillel II: moving toward declaring the month based solely on conjunction (Ref: hakirah.org/vol20Ajdler.pdf), a paradigm the Prophet pbuh would have been familiar with, yet explicitly rejected in favor of observation. As a physicist, I find this departure from empirical observation tragic. Allahu Alam. @Crescentwatch @NewCrescentSoc @CentralHilalCmt @hilal_council @HilalCommittee @Haqiqatjou @BrOmarChatila @hmph531258 @issa033 @MuftiAbdullah @HaroonSidat @Simwal @DrShadeeElmasry @JosephLumbard @DrShoaibAM @RamonIHarvey @belugaleuca @MfIsmailMoosa @BinhamidAli @Mufti_Muhammad_ @MuftiARM

Re: Moonsighting Fiasco [February 17/18, 2026!] By now, it should be clear that lunar observatories in most Middle Eastern countries rely on infrared (IR) imaging to detect the crescent within the IR-spectrum during the day (see: UAE, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Bahrain, and Jordan: x.com/MuslimBiblioph…). Unlike visible spectrum sighting, IR enables daytime detection, even at the moment of conjunction. This technique was famously demonstrated by the 2013 daytime IR crescent from France (a method since adopted across the Gulf): astrophoto.fr/new_moon_2013j…. This methodology was further confirmed by Br. Simwal (of the National Moonsighting Committee of Nigeria: x.com/Simwal/status/…). While I haven’t yet found a public press release showing an IR crescent image from February 17 (they seem to have released it for the following morning! link above), the underlying technical capability is well-established. It is important to note that the infrared/IR spectrum (thermal radiation) is invisible to the naked eye and requires specialized sensors. By using this method, one can observe an "IR crescent" on the day of conjunction without fail, even with a separation of only 1°. Sufficient image processing, integration time, and denoising can yield a detection (because IR scatters less than visible light, Rayleigh scattering: I_scatter ~ 1/lambda^4). This explains why Saudi Arabia consistently announces sightings despite visibility plots suggesting otherwise; their reports align with the pre-calculated Umm Al-Qura calendar (ummalquracalendar.com), which is based on conjunction rather than optical visibility. That being said, a lot of people miss this, but in astronomy, certain phenomena are deterministic and can be calculated with extreme precision (years in advance): 1. Sunset and sunrise 2. Moonset and moonrise 3. Solar and lunar orbital motions 4. Solar zenith and conjunction However, other phenomena are probabilistic and require empirical confirmation; the primary example is the first visibility of the crescent moon. (Other phenomena, like the onset of Fajr or Isha, are also probabilistic but tend to gain certainty over time.) So, while visibility plots (webspace.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/isla…) and sunset/moonset timings (x.com/MuslimBiblioph…) can be used to rule out impossible reports, the mere presence of a "visibility band" over a geographic location does not guarantee a sighting; it still requires human confirmation. Furthermore, these visibility bands are often misunderstood because the map itself represents a spherical Earth projected onto a flat plane, often viewed through the narrow window of UTC or the International Date Line (which is arbitrary: see 1/ and 2/ x.com/MuslimBiblioph… ). Consequently, it is scientifically inaccurate to claim that a sighting in one location automatically begins the new month for all "global sighting" adherents within a UTC/International window. A more physics-based approach would be that only locations/timezones west of the confirmed sighting, within that probabilistic band, can validly invoke a global sighting (harmonizing both local and global). Advocates of Global sighting should recognize that medieval scholars' opinions on global sighting did not account for the scope of the globe, time zones, etc. So scholars should not lazily juxtapose traditional global sighting opinions without factoring in the physics mentioned above. So, while these nuances could be factored into modern calculations, the science is often misapplied by calculation advocates to force alignment with the Umm Al-Qura calendar. For example, the ISNA calculation method dictates that if a conjunction occurs anywhere in the world before 12:00 UTC and there is a possibility of a sighting (x.com/MuslimBiblioph…), as was the case this year - it was over the Pacific Ocean in the Feb. 17 UTC window, they will declare the new month (webspace.science.uu.nl/~gent0113/isla…). These arbitrary rules conveniently sync the ISNA calendar with Saudi Arabia’s IR-based sightings and Umm Al-Qura conjunction-based calendar. This also explains why ISNA/Saudi calendars line up all the time! This creates immense social pressure for Muslims and Crescent committees who follow either global or local naked-eye sightings. Every year, a discrepancy arises: 1. Ramadan begins on a different day, but Eids align (e.g., 2026). 2. Ramadan begins together, but the Eids diverge (e.g., 2025). Therefore, I advocate for a scientifically grounded approach that remains in line with normative Sunni tradition. What we are seeing now is a misapplication of science. We are essentially repeating the shift the Jewish community made during the post-Second Temple period under Hillel II: moving toward declaring the month based solely on conjunction (Ref: hakirah.org/vol20Ajdler.pdf), a paradigm the Prophet pbuh would have been familiar with, yet explicitly rejected in favor of observation. As a physicist, I find this departure from empirical observation tragic. Allahu Alam. @Crescentwatch @NewCrescentSoc @CentralHilalCmt @hilal_council @HilalCommittee @Haqiqatjou @BrOmarChatila @hmph531258 @issa033 @MuftiAbdullah @HaroonSidat @Simwal @DrShadeeElmasry @JosephLumbard @DrShoaibAM @RamonIHarvey @belugaleuca @MfIsmailMoosa @BinhamidAli @Mufti_Muhammad_ @MuftiARM