Counter

@NerdcapK @germanbonsai Highly likely in earnings blackout period so can’t buyback bonds yet given have MNPI, but will be cleansed once report. Buybacks start thereafter, and focused on the ‘32s (as required by docs and given <90).

@germanbonsai The only thing I can think is perhaps they're buying a little bit of the 2027 everyday to capture the discount to par and will announce when they've spent their 112+m

$CCOI needs to ink a few more data center sales and get an update out on the bond refi.

@GoodHouseCap I wonder will Q-end blackout period prevent them from buying back bonds for a few weeks

$CCOI closes its $225m data center sale prnewswire.com/news-releases/…

@dcblocher @GoodHouseCap @NerdcapK Precluded from doing so with the data center proceeds, as per the Secued bond indenture amendment, but suppose could do so using cash on b/s, although I would be surprised if they did.

@GoodHouseCap @counterwisp @NerdcapK I'm wondering if when the deal closes Dave will make an opportunistic buyback of 1m shares or more in the $13s. I hope so.

$CCOI 2032s down a few points, now in the high-80s. Consistent with recent stock weakness. Possible bond market is sniffing out another busted data center deal. Haven’t heard anything that suggests it won’t close 👀

@NerdcapK @GoodHouseCap Close expected in about a week - not sure if will land before or after July 4th. Think extremely unlikely deal has fallen apart. Delay just HSR window. Ascribing recent bond & equity weakness to the delay, but buybacks more accretive here anyway so Co incentive isn’t to rush.

@GoodHouseCap Hoping to see a closing announcement today or Monday. Guide was a fast close and the end of that window has arrived

@jay_21_ @nearcertainty1 Near-term setup seems reasonably attractive…DC proceeds in by mid June, buyback existing SSN w/ portion of proceeds, bondholder consent solicitation to facilitate sub refi, then refinance subs into new SSN. Once done, runway clear till ‘32. Time for Waves bottlenecks to ease.

@nearcertainty1 I think so Best thing is if we get an “all clear” quarter without material acceleration in wavelength If you get that then you can really size up. Otherwise I probably just have to sit with a small position

I gave up on $CCOI awhile ago....but this weekend i feel like im having a change of heart 🧐

@Biohazard3737 The same could be said for SATS?

Back of the envelope math: This CEF used to trade at a 10% discount to NAV. Now trading at a 8% premium. Has a 17% allocation to SpaceX - so basically pricing in a double (to $3 Trillion market cap). I‘d expect the NAV discount to widen and stabilize in the mid to high teens - first of all, there‘ll be a lot of selling pressure from arbitrageurs selling the long. Second, there‘s going to be much less of a reason to own it once you can own SpaceX directly. What‘s somewhat helpful is the 260bps position in Anthropic (pre mark up).

@BodhiSterling @WaterworldCapi1 Similar Q for me - railroads, electricity, even the internet, all much slower adoption/ramp. Adjustment feels like will have to happen very quickly this time.

@WaterworldCapi1 If factories automated all their workers in ~5-10 years, there would have been issues. The velocity is the problem for employment, no view on GDP

When factories began automating the assembly lines or farmers started using tractors and farm equipment, we didn't have mass unemployment. It increased productivity and freed people up to do other things that were more interesting.

@Capital_Ascent The laws of physics are not going to change

@counterwisp Yet

Who has the $ASTS share price calculator? I want to plug in 100% of the US population

@Capital_Ascent “In urban and suburban areas, terrestrial networks are 100 to 1,000 times more efficient than LEO. But is there a market for that? Of course, there is. I think over the next 7, 10 years, I think that's maybe 5 million households or so. It's a real market, but it's not our market”

@Capital_Ascent “satellite is a really good complementary service to our product, but they cannot compete in urban and suburban against the terrestrial network. And that's where 95%+ of the revenues are. And the reason for that are really simply comes down to densification and orbital physics.”

@REdebtlawyer @Akashi1459455 @Yeah_Dave Fair - space-based tech is extremely hard + SpaceX plans not clear cut either. Both could be delayed. But if I were a betting man, and I am, I would back the provider with thousands of sats already launched, own launch provider, brand/marketing scale, tech savvy, to win this race

@counterwisp @Akashi1459455 @Yeah_Dave No one knows SpaceX’s plans or where they are in production of V3 DTC. They also made big promises for their current constellation of 650 and it’s a dud. I think we have to take their ambitions with as much of a grain of salt (and assumptions of delay) as we do AST’s.

The $ASTS "miss" is a fabrication. They don't give quarterly revenue guidance. No point until the satellites are up and service starts. Full-year guide is $150M-$200M, which was reiterated. Analysts invent a quarterly number, then everyone parrots the "miss". Clown market.

@REdebtlawyer @Yeah_Dave Fair, seems very reasonable - I don’t believe, but could be wrong, that the stock would react favorably to that slower pacing - all while SpaceX closing in

@counterwisp @Yeah_Dave My base case is 20 this year. At least five or six Falcon 9 launches and maybe one New Glenn. I would have said this before the call too. 45 is very optimistic.

@JadeTheArt @chasecashman @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave TAM = MNO network outages (they run at 99.9% avg network availability) + people traveling to (or already in) rural locations w/ MNO blindspots - how many subs will that result in? Seems like a v small market to me. Also, will Starlink capture any of those subs?

@counterwisp @chasecashman @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave Lol. I'm sorry but what happens when something bad happens? You telling me you'd just sit there unconnected by choice? Sure, fine to skip the cost when 99% of the time you're connected. But when you're not, you'd really wish you were.

@JadeTheArt @chasecashman @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave Most of those examples (particularly cities) are very well served by regular wireless or wired connectivity, why would consumers or MNOs pay a premium for an unnecessary service?

@counterwisp @chasecashman @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave Why not have it? Houses, Buildings, RV's, Dense cloud cover cities even. Its not that hard to think of why its useful. Spectrum is the prize. Thats why Elon spends so much for it.

@REdebtlawyer @Yeah_Dave What number of satellites launched this year would make you concerned? 30?

@counterwisp @Yeah_Dave All of that was known before the call.

@JadeTheArt @chasecashman @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave What use cases require better penetration qualities that aren’t already better served by other technologies?

@counterwisp @chasecashman @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave 1 keyword, penetration

@chasecashman @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave Fair pushbacks - no lowband based on current spectrum holdings. And tbd on next gen sats, Starship will need to be operational. On latter, how much of head start you think ASTS will have? On lowband, what is the use case that better propagation qualities will be needed for?

@counterwisp @FrancisGeohara @Yeah_Dave starlink going to be able to do lowband with their next gen sats? when do these next gen sats start launching ?

@mithus10xinvest @chasecashman @Yeah_Dave “A bit more revenue”…PLTR did $5.2bn Revenue FY25 and consensus has them doing $7.7bn FY27, +73% YOY. 60% EBITDA margins w/ virtually no CapEx. Just a slightly different animal. Yes, give me more examples please, PLTR was not a good one.

@counterwisp @chasecashman @Yeah_Dave lool look at PLTR... the do a bit more revenue that asts is guiding next year. And they don't have 90% margins Their valuation? $322B do you want more examples? And 1B of revenue is only the start! Now think... why isn't the stock trading above 400

@Akashi1459455 @Yeah_Dave Ok, we’re agreed there. 45 barely possible. Where we disagree is the stock being underpriced if the 45 goal drifts into 2027. Any 1st mover advantage ASTS may have had is rapidly disappearing w/ brand/scale/tech behemoth SpaceX chasing them down.

@counterwisp @Yeah_Dave Then what did you suggest? Your 1st post had no timeframe. 45 by EOY is still barely possible, and if it's 45 in orbit several months after EOY target, the stock's very underpriced today. SpaceX can get a functional constellation up alone, just not in 2026. ULA+BO will be back.

@Akashi1459455 @Yeah_Dave Where did I suggest never? BO will clearly launch again but not clear when. New Shepard was grounded for over a yr post-anomaly - not saying NG will be but still TBD how long grounding will last. The other partner I was referring to was Vulcan. ASTS can’t rely on SpaceX alone.

@counterwisp @Yeah_Dave SpaceX launches next month. Are you pretending "not currently launching" means never, when these are routine post-anomaly investigations like all the others? Nov goal is just building sats, launch goal is for end of year, stock would have to double to price in a launch goal hit.