Sabitlenmiş Tweet
CP - Option seller
2.4K posts


@cp_option @seedy19tron nope! fast money retail traders dreams crushed Lol
English

$ABVX mgmt in 1:1s:
• CCO hire to be announced on Monday in the earnings PR
• Expect to raise post-maint
• Not happy with La Lettre; have requested them to stop
• Bullish tone re: maint data, but setting a modest bar
Still one of the best names with an incredible asset.
I’m glad they’re insulating themselves with commercialisation prep, just in case they have to go at it alone.
English

All of this nonsense and the bearish PT they arrive at is...$110? Like...not even 15% downside from here? Well...ok, maybe that does check out then 😅
The biggest bear on the street is making essentially zero since, contradicting all their own key points throughout their report, and then arrives at a *slightly* bearish price target that reflects prices we saw like 3 weeks ago...ok 🤷♂️
There's lots of other stuff in there that I could nitpick on. These were just the big glaring issues. I'm sure I'll vent about it some more here in the comments, but for now:
Rant over.
P.S. I didn't proof read a single word of this. Sorry in advance.
English

@unemon1 La lettre could write another article if there’s any relevance to jets 😅 $ABVX
English

$ABVX — Did some homework on $LLY ✈️
Checked 648 days of logs for the $LLY private jets I track.
Surprise: they basically never go to Paris.
• Aug 2024 → Sep 2025: zero Paris airport landings. No fresh Baguette for over a year!
• Before 2025: only Jul–Aug 2024 visits — tied to Olympics sponsorship (they flew 2 PJs around Europe that summer).
So… was Sep 18, 2025 the first ever $LLY visit linked to $ABVX?
→ ~2.5 months of DD
→ Dec 2025 visit to Bercy (per La Lettre, informal talks)
→ Now Feb 2026: $LLY PJ back in Paris again 👀
If I am not hallucinating (always a possibility) ... things are MOVING!

English

@Scottnewdawn It was 5000 contracts of $145-$195 Call debit spread with $95 Put sell.
And i think it was bought around end of December.
$ABVX
English

@JackMan724444 Not big enough but spike in volume for $150 call 02/20 calls
English

@wonti Sorry to disappoint, but today is not the day.
English

I see two $LLY Gulfstream 500s en route to an undisclosed location in Europe.
Shemzard@DataJoh
@AnotherKoreanX What do think about this ?
English

@Phoenix3million @bioadvo Agree. Probably MdG is not getting the price he wanted. And I don’t see any reason for BP to wait for maintenance data since there is a high chance of maintenance success.
English

@bioadvo Interesting points. I am more or less w/ you. I just hold and will hold until whenever they get bought out at whatever price it is. will be more than $112 it's trading at. I agree potentially a BP will pay BEFORE maintenance data just to beat the herd.
English

$ABVX BCM Interview
My takeaway - they've been approached (obviously) and probably received bids, but MdG is holding until Maintenance, at least. He is insistent that their "mission is to bring to market" but that's continued posturing. They'll probably hire a CCO soon. To me, the biggest tell that he's waiting was him saying Obe will essentially be de-risked after Maintenance and that will be a "decisive moment." Right now, $ABVX is not getting the price he thinks it will get after this decisive moment. Now, one might be inclined to sell their shares now and come back in a few months, but I will not (even though I really want to buy additional $LQDA shares). There may come a moment were BP decides they will offer MdG's reserve price ahead of Maintenance so they can jump competition who are unwilling to pay the price before it's totally derisked. I would be despondent if I missed it! The risk/return here is unmatched, in my opinion.
MdG transcript from the BCM interview (as translated by AI)
$ABVX
Our guest is Marc de Garidel.
Hello, you are the CEO of Abivax and Chairman of the Board of Ipsen. Abivax is the biotech that has been exciting the markets for several months. Abivax develops innovative treatments for inflammatory and infectious diseases. I remind viewers: the stock was up more than 1600% in 2025. Since the beginning of the year, it’s been crazy. In January, you reached a €9 billion valuation — roughly the valuation of Carrefour, a CAC 40 company. It has come down since then, but this morning you’re still worth €7.5 billion. All of this started from takeover rumors, notably involving Eli Lilly. So this morning: takeover or no takeover — what can you tell us?
0:40
First, let’s start by reminding everyone what we do. We have a drug in development for chronic inflammatory bowel diseases, particularly ulcerative colitis. Last July, we revealed that this product had the potential to become the future standard of care in ulcerative colitis. That’s what excited investors and drew the attention of several pharmaceutical companies wondering whether this product might one day end up in their hands. Toward the end of the year, there was a lot of speculation in the stock related to the Lilly story.
1:27
We’re now at the point where people are tracking the movements of Lilly’s CEO to see whether they’re going to buy you. That shows how much interest there is in your company.
Yes, because when you look objectively at the first part of the Phase 3 study, it gives tremendous hope for patients. And when you look at financial analysts’ projections, this product could be among the top 10 drugs of the next decade. That naturally creates interest from laboratories and potential partners.
But our mission is to bring this drug to market.
2:11
So you’re being heavily approached?
We’re being talked to, watched, yes. But our mission above all is to develop this drug. There is a very important milestone coming: the maintenance study. In July we studied the product over 8 weeks; now we will present one-year follow-up data. That will be…
2:35
When is that?
At the end of the second quarter this year. If the data are still good, the product will be essentially de-risked, and we will be able to submit it to regulatory authorities, notably the FDA, toward the end of the year. Value creation continues. It was very significant last July because the Phase 3 results were actually better than Phase 2, which is very rare. That surprise drove enthusiasm. What’s coming in June this year will be just as decisive.
3:15
You have to explain why this drug is revolutionary. It could be what pharma calls a “first-in-class.” In other words, a completely new way to treat these diseases. Today, to treat inflammation, we try to block inflammation. What your drug — obefazimod — does is allow the body to create its own anti-inflammatory response. Is that how it works?
Yes. What it does is naturally stimulate something called microRNA-124. It boosts the production of a molecule that regulates inflammation. When your system becomes inflamed, this molecule reduces that inflammation through several mechanisms.
The originality is that current treatments block a single inflammatory signaling pathway. That works very well short term, but blocking one pathway creates significant side effects. In ulcerative colitis, patients can develop serious infections. Remember: diagnosis is around age 35, and by age 42 they are already on advanced treatments. Ending up with pneumonia or even potential cancer risks is a real problem.
4:49
So current drugs work like a fire extinguisher — they block everything?
Yes. They reduce pro-inflammatory cytokines. Several are activated in this disease, and we reduce them — but not 100%, only by about 10–30%.
So the effect doesn’t spill over into other organs?
Exactly. It remains focused within the immune system. That’s what is very original.
5:15
Is this just one drug, or is it a platform that could treat other inflammatory diseases — Crohn’s disease, rheumatoid arthritis, etc.?
Exactly. We are running a Phase 2 study in Crohn’s disease, with results expected at the end of the year. We previously tested it in rheumatoid arthritis; efficacy was probably somewhat below competitors, so we chose not to pursue that indication. But there are clearly multiple potential applications wherever inflammation is predominant.
5:51
We wish you a good trading day after all this — I think what you’ve said might boost the stock again. Thank you very much, Marc de Garidel, for joining us this morning to talk about Abivax, which we are watching very closely.
English

After reducing my biotech portfolio in the last couple of months and some reallocations, I am currently holding the following names:
Top 5: $APGE, $RVMD, $ORKA, $ZEAL, $CTMX
Mid: $ABVX, $GPCR, $PTGX, $NAMS, $LBRX
Others: $TERN, $CRVS, $MPLT, $EVMN
As a whole, my biotech portfolio had a negative performance in January (including exits and reductions). My biotech portion is ~19% of invested funds. On the other hand, the Swiss portion of the portfolio performed in a slight positive manner, making the whole portfolio near flat. Hedges and near-term trading did not help me much this time (some worked, others did not). Currently ~50% cash in CHF. If I see stability or significant opportunities, I can put some of the cash back to work in the US. Otherwise, I will reinvest it here.
Swiss names that I hold:
Top 5: Swisscom $SCMN (top position overall), Novartis $NOVN, Roche $ROG, Holcim $HOLN, ABB $ABBN
Others: Galderma $GALD, Nestle $NESN, Swiss Marketplace Group $SMG, Sika $SIKA, UBS $UBSG
English

$XBI China's CSPC Pharmaceutical signs deal with $AZN AstraZeneca for weight-loss therapy
$LLY $NVO $GPCR $VKTX $MRK $ABBV
reuters.com/business/healt…
English













