Craig - selling options for the win!

1.1K posts

Craig - selling options for the win!

Craig - selling options for the win!

@craigers211

Whisky maker. Golf lover. Leafs for life!!

Coaldale, Alberta Katılım Ağustos 2011
377 Takip Edilen190 Takipçiler
Photon Capital
Photon Capital@PhotonCap·
루머가 아닐지요? 이런 글을 가끔 봅니다.
Craig - selling options for the win!@craigers211

@Sofigoodboy @PhotonCap Honestly I think this story is just beginning. It sounds like Marvell tried to low ball POET and start the bidding at 10 dollars and POET’s BOD rejected that offer and so they pulled what they did. If so I think this story is just beginning and things will get spicy shortly!!

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@PhotonCap Also the NDA reason for closing the relationship does not hold water. Neither does changing their approach when they need to hit milestones here shortly to meet their production targets for AWS
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SoFire
SoFire@Sofigoodboy·
$poet 경영진이 아무 후속 언급이 없는게 겁나 답답하다
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Craig - selling options for the win!
@Sofigoodboy @PhotonCap Honestly I think this story is just beginning. It sounds like Marvell tried to low ball POET and start the bidding at 10 dollars and POET’s BOD rejected that offer and so they pulled what they did. If so I think this story is just beginning and things will get spicy shortly!!
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SoFire
SoFire@Sofigoodboy·
@PhotonCap 포엣 살려가 아닌 이제 포엣 버려...
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@FinnStockinger I don’t think they walked away. I think they tried to buy them and it got squashed so they are pissed. I think this is just the start. Art of the deal here. They would not try to buy them if the tech was not good! They need it. More to come here.
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Finn Stockinger
Finn Stockinger@FinnStockinger·
Why did $MRVL really walk away from $POET? Many investors believe today’s nearly 50% crash was triggered solely by a slip-up during a CFO interview. Let’s be realistic: in the semiconductor industry, you don't terminate Tier-1 partnerships over "chatter" if the product is indispensable. The NDA breach was merely a legal backdoor - a convenient excuse to exit a contract without massive penalties. The real reason lies in the events of the past week. 1⃣The Polariton Acquisition (April 22) Just one day before sending the termination notice to POET, Marvell announced the acquisition of Swiss-based Polariton Technologies. Polariton does not do what POET does, but it makes POET's role in Marvell’s stack redundant. ➡️ $POET (Optical Interposer): A packaging platform. It allows for the integration of various optical components (lasers, modulators) onto a single chip at scale. ➡️ Polariton (Plasmonics): The creators of the world’s fastest plasmonic modulators. These are 10x smaller and significantly faster than traditional silicon photonics. ⬇️The takeaway: Marvell no longer needs POET’s "motherboard" because they just bought the "engine." By acquiring Polariton, Marvell can now integrate optics directly into their own DSPs (Digital Signal Processors), bypassing POET’s architecture entirely. This is Vertical Integration at its finest - the giant prefers owning the IP over licensing it from a micro-cap player. 2⃣ The Governance Crisis As investors, we must call out the management's communication timeline: ➡️The termination notice was received on Thursday (April 23). ➡️The company remained silent throughout Friday (April 24), allowing the stock to pump 29% on false speculation. The news was only disclosed on Monday (April 27) before the bell. Failing to report a material event for four days is unacceptable and exposes the company to significant regulatory risk. This destroys trust far more than the loss of a single contract. 3⃣Validation vs. PR Spin Today’s mention of a new $5M order from another customer feels like desperate "damage control." Compared to the projected scale of the Marvell/Celestial AI partnership, $5 million is a drop in the bucket. It isn't market validation; it’s a PR distraction from the fire in the boardroom. ⬇️The Outlook: POET’s technology may still be brilliant, but the company has lost its primary leverage. Other Tier-1 players now know POET is backed into a corner, which drastically weakens their negotiating power. I am not making a "hot" decision today, but the investment thesis based on a "partnership with a giant" has officially evaporated. I will watch tomorrow’s session to gauge the level of capitulation, but my confidence in management is currently near zero.
Finn Stockinger@FinnStockinger

$POET down nearly 50% - Sell or Not to Sell? A crash this sudden is rare. What actually happened? Reports are surfacing that $MRVL canceled all $POET orders originally placed via Celestial AI. ➡️The stated reason: NDA breach. Last week, POET’s CFO confirmed the Marvell collaboration in a Stocktwits interview. If he disclosed confidential info knowing an NDA was in place, it’s a massive blunder. But here’s the thing: Did we actually learn anything new from that interview? Thomas Mika basically confirmed what the market already suspected and what was already sitting in the 20F filings. Did that really "hurt" Marvell enough to kill the orders? The whole situation feels off. I’m not seeing major formal notifications of an NDA breach yet. Until we get official PR, we’re just guessing. But when a company has a history that isn't exactly "crystal clear" and its valuation is based purely on future partnerships, this is what happens when bad news hits. ➡️Can this bury $POET? It’s definitely not good. When you only have a few Tier-1 players as potential customers, losing one significantly weakens your leverage with the others. ➡️Then there's the "stink": The technology is exactly the same as it was 2 days ago. The product didn't change. But the company’s credibility did. Future contractors will now demand better terms because they know POET is backed into a corner. ➡️Why did Marvell pull the plug now? They didn’t have to cancel; they wanted to. In business, an NDA breach is often just a convenient exit. Marvell has been hiring for roles that suggest they want to build this internally (vertical integration). They might simply want to own the space rather than depend on POET. ➡️ If they see POET as a threat they need to build against, that’s actually a backhanded compliment to the tech. ⬇️ My move: I haven’t sold a single share, but I’m not buying yet either. I’m waiting for official communications. This isn't a great spot for any investor to be in, and everyone has to make their own call. You couldn't have predicted this one.

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Johhnywalker
Johhnywalker@johhnyWalkerAZ·
I definitely was not expecting a rebound so fast. Let’s see if it sticks $POET
Johhnywalker tweet media
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@johhnyWalkerAZ Sounding like $MRVL tried a takeover with a low ball offer and got pounded. Rumours about that they may be trying a hostile takeover. Things could get spicy here. Let’s get our white knight and get the valuation we deserve!
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Sam Parikh
Sam Parikh@smartertrader·
Chippy Rippy. If you miss it. Cry. Opportunities of a life time and clowns don’t understand the world. 90% chance ai destroy all these clowns. The concept of needing less compute is so stupid. In 20 yrs compute will be. 500x where it is today. Every school will have 5x compute. Every company that survives will be needing 25x compute. Every govt and defense will need 100x more compute. Thousand of reasons. Insane. Anyone that thinks data centers will be done is clueless. Exponential growth coming. Hasn’t even started. So simple. Sam knows all this. Everyone in his room knows this. Please retweet. I look to see who does. If you don’t and your not a member I won’t answer you when you ask a question. Know this Smartertrading411.com
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Justin Banks
Justin Banks@RealJGBanks·
AI PHOTONICS INFRASTRUCTURE Here’s the full stack: 1. Materials / Substrates $AXTI $WOLF $IQE $GLW $LPTH 2. Equipment / Fabrication $ASML $AMAT $LRCX $KLAC 3. Lasers / Optical Engines $LITE $COHR $LASR $SMTC $QCLS 4. Foundries / Manufacturing $TSM $GFS $UMC $INTC 5. Modules + Testing $AEHR $VIAV $ONTO $AMKR $FN $AAOI $POET $JBL $LWLG $SIVE 6. Networking / Interconnect $CRDO $MRVL $AVGO $ANET $CIEN $ALAB
Justin Banks tweet media
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QC Capital
QC Capital@QC_Capitals·
Market opens tomorrow. Which stock are you most excited about this week?
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Noah
Noah@antibearthesis·
REMINDER: $NVDA CEO tells you which stocks to buy 2025 calls: $NBIS at $22 → up 600% $CRWV at $40 → up 200% $TSM at $230 → up 80% 2026 calls: $PLTR at $140 $NOW at $90 Are you going to miss out again?
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Finance Major
Finance Major@FinanceMajor_23·
$POET TECHNOLOGIES - THE WAFER-SCALE CPO BET REPORT SENT Our latest full equity report specific to $POET. $SIVE relationship also included. 200mm Optical Interposer that already underpins four production‑oriented customer engagements. seqhresearch.com/p/poet-technol…
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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
@craigers211 Haha i need to see them deliver an order first
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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
$POET Has had an explosive 2026 Let's revisit all that has come up: > Confirmation of being designed into $MRVL > 30,000 units shipping 2026 > $430m in cash > Malaysia production starts Q2/Q3 2026 > New orders "far in excess" of $5M this year > Expanded 1.6T ecosystem with new Lessengers and LITEON partnerships > Celestial AI invoice with shipments expected next quarter Excited to see what the rest of 2026 has in store
Gaetano@crux_capital_

This is a really important update $POET While it has been assumed that POET was designed in with Celestial AI/ $MRVL I always wanted to frame it as a highly probable assumption rather than gaurentee Today gave confirmation that I was looking for This also has read through for $SIVE / $SIVEF I wrote out a full article diving into what this interview signals for $POET Here's an outline: The Marvell / Celestial AI Validation The $430M Cash Position... Good to know Ending “Margin Stacking” Orders Beyond the $5M Benchmark The Blazar Shift at OFC 2026 Please check it out here! cruxcapitalgroup.substack.com/p/poet-massive…

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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
@craigers211 Honestly, I have no idea what the share price has in store. It’s above my targets. Story has improved a ton though
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