@WomboBros @KennyZufall There're still tons of work left for SW to fully operate and generate AI revenue. I don't doubt the demand if they can fully ramp up. What I doubt is their execution capability
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crazysean
948 posts
@crazysean_ @KennyZufall Dont disagree but a deal is getting closer every day lol. They cant let SW empty for all of 2026
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I've been quiet on $IREN since it's run up and convert offering.
I feel the convert is only necessary as a precursor to a deal. They stated on earnings they were fully financed for 2026. Had an ATM shelf with $5B left on it. The converts speak to a need to raise cash quickly and that only seems likely if they have something they can't pass up on or a requirement for something.
Speculation but as usual I think any investment sub $70 sees significant gains to the upside as the pipeline gets built out. 1.4GWs ready to be built on makes me think a contract should be more imminent but ultimately it'll happen when it happens. In the meantime I DCA and chill.
IDK where the bottom is exactly short term but if it goes sub $50 I'll be adding leaps to my portfolio.
IREN@IREN_Ltd
Building AI factories isn't one-size-fits-all. With @Dell and @nvidia, $IREN offers integrated solutions for every workload. See IREN CTO Denis Skrinnikoff and CCO Kent Draper on stage at #DellTechWorld alongside Rod Evans, Vice President, NCP and AI Factories EMEA, NVIDIA and Arun Narayanan, Senior Vice President, Server and Networking Products, Dell Technologies.
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@kerdoscapital For iren which still relies on storytelling, when broader market has correction, it will drop much harder
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Why was $IREN down over 9% today?
Well it wasn’t just IREN:
$SPY ended the day -1.2%
$QQQ ended the day -1.51%
This was mainly the result of two things
1. The market didn’t like that no material news came out of the U.S. / China trade talks. Trumps vague post didn’t cut it.
2. Bond yields surged higher. The 30Y is now well over 5%. Why take the risk of investing in stocks at seemingly sky high valuations when you can get a risk free 5%? Growth stocks like $IREN got hit the hardest because of the fact they’re priced based on discounted future earnings. When yields rise that discount rises which makes future earnings worth less in today’s dollars. Growth stocks which have most of their value in earnings years down the road get hit the hardest when yields rise.
Another factor was that today was monthly OpEx. Essentially this means that there’s large amounts of open interest expiring which leads to exaggerated price movements as market makers seek to hedge/unhedge their positions. Monthly OpEx in particular over weekly OpEx leads to higher volatility as Market Makers seek to pin stocks to the highest level of open interest (which is referred to as max pain).
Max pain for IREN today was $52 (the stock closed at $52.94) Market Makers took advantage of the overall market correction and took IREN down as close to max pain as possible. Personally I’m not really reading too much into this correction. Monday will really tell the story as to whether this an over exaggerated macro draw down or the start of a deeper correction. Personally I believe we’ll see a strong green day on Monday and a move back toward the $56-60 level.
Have a great weekend all!
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Building AI factories isn't one-size-fits-all. With @Dell and @nvidia, $IREN offers integrated solutions for every workload.
See IREN CTO Denis Skrinnikoff and CCO Kent Draper on stage at #DellTechWorld alongside Rod Evans, Vice President, NCP and AI Factories EMEA, NVIDIA and Arun Narayanan, Senior Vice President, Server and Networking Products, Dell Technologies.
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@fundstrat Fine.....but if that's the case, why slow down Eth purchases? I'm a Bitmine shareholder, the messaging is worrying. More transparency would be great.
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👀👀
$BTC $ETH
Crypto spring is here
cape@capexbt
The last two times cobie tweeted this, Bitcoin did 2x. Do you think it’s different this time?
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@kerdoscapital It needs to delivery AI revenue. That’s the most important things.
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$IREN
I want to clear something up about IREN's financing position because I don't think enough people understand how well structured this actually is.
IREN has already deployed ~$2.9B of the $5.8B $MSFT GPU buildout — roughly half — with the remaining Dell tranches scheduled to ship in H2 2026. Per the original 8-K: "GPUs and ancillary products and services, scheduled to be delivered in several tranches from March 2026, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $5.8 billion payable in installments within 30 days of each tranche shipping." The remaining ~$2.9B will almost certainly come from the $3.6B Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan delayed-draw facility at <6% — secured by the GPUs and Microsoft's own contracted cash flows. Their financing, combined with Microsoft's $1.94B prepayment, covers roughly 95% of GPU-related capex. The balance sheet cash barely needs to be touched.
The $NVDA deal ($3.4B over 5 years) will likely follow the exact same playbook — GPU-backed financing plus a potential NVIDIA prepayment mirroring what Microsoft did. And NVIDIA isn't just a customer here. They hold investment rights to purchase up to 30M IREN shares at $70 — a potential $2.1B investment — with those rights vesting per 100K GPUs deployed through 2031. They don't get the equity until they deliver. That's the kind of alignment you want to see.
Now let's talk about the cash pile because this is where it gets interesting. Audited cash as of March 31 was $2.213B. Unaudited preliminary cash as of April 30 grew to $2.6B — IREN's own words from the Q3 business update. Then on May 11 they priced an upsized $2.6B convertible at 1.00% coupon with a $400M overallotment option. If fully exercised, after estimated underwriting fees, net proceeds would likely be ~$2.925B — potentially putting total cash at roughly $5.5B.
And the ATM tells the same story. The original $1B ATM? Completely exhausted. Replaced in March 2026 with a $6B facility. Just over $1B has already been drawn from the new facility to date. The stock components of Mirantis (~$562M) and Nostrum (~$63M) will likely be sourced from ATM-registered shares — meaning zero additional cash drain. If so, after existing draws and both acquisitions close, the ATM would still have approximately ~$4.4B in remaining capacity.
I've said it before — dilution is accretive if used right. The combined actual cash outflow from both acquisitions is only ~$107M. That barely registers against a potential $5.5B cash position.
So ask yourself — why is a company whose current buildouts are essentially self-financing sitting on $5.5B in cash and ~$4.6B in ATM capacity? I don't think management is hoarding capital for fun. You don't load up like this unless something bigger is coming. Another hyperscaler, a sovereign AI deal, a transformational acquisition — I don't know what it is but the setup is clear. IREN is loading the chamber.
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@TheBigDegen @brianfry01 how? poor execution and constant dilution
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Totally agree @brianfry01 , yes $IREN should already be much higher… BUT once the material revenues start coming thru from the big Microsoft contract, the market will no longer be able to ignore this top stock!! 🔥👀
Brian Fry@brianfry01
As a tech entrepreneur (ex-Cloud/IaaS builder, not a traditional investor), I’ve been stunned as to why $IREN isn’t already trading 3-4x higher. From someone who’s designed, built, and operated HPC/IaaS facilities: IREN stands out as one of the very few players truly capable of delivering ‘AI Factory-ready’ infrastructure at the scale and speed NVIDIA needs for its grand vision, which also allows IREN to deliver on its grand vision.
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It feels like it’s only going to be a matter of time until this stock explodes, in the last month they’ve acquired Mirantis and the Nostrum Group, they’ve energised 1.4GW of power at Sweetwater, announced expansion into Europe and plans to expand into Australia as well as entering into a partnership with $NVDA even with all of that there is still so many catalysts to come, this truly feels like just the beginning for $IREN when the rerate is in full swing the run up is going to be extremely aggressive 👍🏼
Brian Fry@brianfry01
As a tech entrepreneur (ex-Cloud/IaaS builder, not a traditional investor), I’ve been stunned as to why $IREN isn’t already trading 3-4x higher. From someone who’s designed, built, and operated HPC/IaaS facilities: IREN stands out as one of the very few players truly capable of delivering ‘AI Factory-ready’ infrastructure at the scale and speed NVIDIA needs for its grand vision, which also allows IREN to deliver on its grand vision.
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TOM LEE @fundstrat The parabolic move in Semis and Memory highlight the strong risk/reward in MAG7 and Software $AMD $MNST $TSLA $NVDA $KLAC
Fundstrat Granny Shots ETFs $GRNY $GRNJ $GRNI Weekly Update Video - May 11, 2026
Watch the full video 🔗: youtu.be/gygFcwlJ_3w
YouTube
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@jiahanjimliu @BobbyAx99479964 You're just lucky to get in earlier. But most people bought $iren in $30-$60 which is a terrible investment
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@BobbyAx99479964 IREN out performed 2025
NBIS outperform in 2026
IREN outperform in 2027
Haven't been disappointed in my 5x in IREN.
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$NBIS: Fantastic Job on Double Beat on Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA
Financials
1. Quarterly Revenue $399M, up 684% YoY from 50M last year. Annualized to 1.596B ARR.
2. Adjusted EBITDA positive: $130M
+17% Today: Rerating to Catch CRWV
Market is rerating Nebius to CRWV which has a 60B market cap and 35B debt for an enterprise value of 95B. Nebius is one year behind on revenue but in much better debt situation which the market likes.
They haven't announced new deals on earnings day so this +17% is from their double beat and rerating towards CRWV.
Announced yesterday was their Clarifai acquisition to improve their inference optimization. Nebius are going all in optimizing their open sourced inference solution.
Secured Power
Nebius has 4GW of secured power through a combination of colocation or greenfield. They say 4GW secured 2026 - it's secured in 2026 but power comes online anytime 2026-2031.
40% Adjusted EBITDA Margin
This is inline for a provider of mostly bare metal offering. CRWV had 56% adjusted EBITDA margin which reflects a mixed bare metal / software offering after paying colocation fees. I do expect Nebius to move towards CRWV's adjusted EBITDA margin.
Takeway for IREN
When revenue beats and ARR surpasses 1B, the rerating towards CRWV will come. NBIS Q1 last year was at 50M quarterly revenue but in this market as long as you can put GPUs online, the revenue will come. Even AKAM who lost to NET and FSLY in CDN is getting Anthropic contracts.
The market rewards when GPUs come online and are billing. The market does not give checkpoints for power secured and datacenters shells built. IREN has to get GPUs online.
Huge congrats to @MarkosAAIG who invested in NBIS day 3 of their relisting from Yandex.
Markos@MarkosAAIG
Nebius Earnings Through My View And What Most People Will Miss On The Call✍️ So guys, $NBIS just dropped Q1 2026. You all see the numbers, which are decent. Revenue $399M, up 684% YoY, beat consensus. Adjusted EBITDA positive to $130M. The headline net income of $621M is mostly a paper gain on their ClickHouse stake strip that out and they’re still running an adjusted net loss of around $100M, which is fine for a company in heavy build mode. So the print is solid. The deeper things are in the call. When I listened to the call and looked for strategic execution and what they’re actually doing, the following things is what caught my eyes the most, and which will probably be underlighted for most people. Starting with Arkady’s opening. He mentioned that they’re building across four dimensions (capacity, product, customers, and capital.) pay attention to the order here. Capacity first, capital last. His commentary strengthened essentially the neocloud case where Nebius is saying: we will build it, then we will fund it, and the funding will come because of what we’ve built. And that gives you a structurally different bargaining position with lenders and equity markets. Because when you walk into a financing conversation with contracted backlog, asset-backed-financeable customer credit, and capacity you have more influence on the terms. It comes with risk also you will see that later. The second thing that stood out for me and you all know I’ve been working on memory for a while, and a lot of people have been stressing how much memory prices will impact cost pressure for downstream for the neoclouds. Nebius secured a lot of their 2026 components in 2025 already. Andrey pointed out on the call that because of securing early, component inflation was only at a low-single-digits level as a percentage of total spend. Low single digits, while most of the industry is staring at mid-to-high single digit cost pressure for the same buildout year. So good execution on that part. Now what does this mean for 2027? Honestly, this was not addressed directly on the call. They talked about 2027 sites, 2027 power contracts, 2027 customer commitments but they did not disclose anything about 2027 component pricing. NVIDIA gave them line of sight to 5 GW of supply allocation through 2030, but that’s a volume commitment, not a price commitment. So we don’t know at what price they’re getting that supply. The risk skew is materially worse for 2027 than 2026, and you have to understand why. As you know HBM4 is a key component in the architecture of Rubin and by the time Nebius is buying Rubin systems for 2027, HBM pricing will be locked at the new contracted-tier levels we saw confirmed on the SK Hynix call, That’s a structural step-up in BOM. On top of that you have 800V DC architecture transition, co-packaged optics ramp, high-voltage power gear, switchgear, transformers with 18-24 month lead times all in constrained phases. These vendors with pricing power are raising prices. Read further 👇
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@jiahanjimliu - $NBIS $400M AI revenue in Q1 2026
- $IREN $30M AI revenue in Q1 2026
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@CrypticTrades_ You're clueless. These hedge have both long and short position on IREN.
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Out of 494 institutional investors, 450 are LONG ONLY on $IREN.
The rally is not over.
Cryptic Trades@CrypticTrades_
$IREN is the next $SNDK
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You know what’s crazy?
This dude
Kevin Xu
Has 3x more followers than me.
I have 4 mill more than him and a CAGR way above his.
He charges 200 per month for his “ideas”
I charge nothing.
Yet I’m way below his follower count.
Bro, why are you charging that much if you have that much?
What am I missing?
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@HyperTechInvest $NBIS has $400M AI revenue in Q1 2026.
$IREN has $30M AI revenue in Q1 2026.
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$NBIS acquires Eigen AI
→ $IREN acquires Mirantis
$NBIS announces a Spain data center
→ $IREN acquires Nostrum sites in Spain
$NBIS rents GPUs to $MSFT
→ $IREN becomes a neocloud and buys GPUs
$NBIS promotes its cloud on SV trams
→ $IREN does the same
$NBIS gets investment from $NVDA
→ $IREN offers $NVDA purchase options for 5 years(lol)
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@moninvestor Why don’t you talk about their execution and dilution risk? Only $30M revenue in q1
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$IREN this.
I believe the stock is incredibly undervalued at current price. I am very surprised by the market reaction to the latest earnings.
> 5GW secured power.
> Expanded into EU.
> Two deals with NVDA.
> Australia expansion soon.
Brian Fry@brianfry01
As a tech entrepreneur (ex-Cloud/IaaS builder, not a traditional investor), I’ve been stunned as to why $IREN isn’t already trading 3-4x higher. From someone who’s designed, built, and operated HPC/IaaS facilities: IREN stands out as one of the very few players truly capable of delivering ‘AI Factory-ready’ infrastructure at the scale and speed NVIDIA needs for its grand vision, which also allows IREN to deliver on its grand vision.
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@crazysean_ There’s no need for the comparison.
When looking at these companies it should be held in separation as they have uniquely different strengths.
Revenue will come. Would you rather wait and charge a higher premium for your capacity or agree terms with the first customer?
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2020: “Iris Energy will build up to 750MW of data centre capacity across multiple global locations.”
In 2020 the plan was 750MW.
In 2026 $IREN has 5GW secured.
The plan was always set. This isn’t a forced pivot like many other $BTC miners
Daniel Roberts@danroberts0101
March 2020. 👇 Six years later, the vision is very much alive. @MichaelDell 👊
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