Kerdos Capital

AI, HPC, and the bullish case for data centers: I believe that the big narrative of 2025 and beyond will continue to be AI. I believe that an undervalued sector in the AI field is AI/HPC data centers. The market was caught off guard by the explosive growth of AI in 2024, and what the market doesn’t recognize is that the new demand for power and compute far outweighs the supply. At this point, to build a new datacenter, it would take multiple years to complete the project, from acquiring the land to obtaining the proper permits, securing the power and hardware, and building out the actual data center. So there's all this new demand for data centers, and the new supply can't be built out quickly enough to meet that demand. This leads to an opportunity in the market. There are a variety of Bitcoin miners that have the land, buildings, and power contracts that can be reallocated to AI/HPC hyperscalers. A company in this sector that is growing the fastest and at the highest rate of efficiency is IREN Limited $IREN. There has already been one massive deal in the sector. CoreWeave has a 12-year, $8.7 billion deal with Core Scientific (CORZ) to gain access to 500 MW. That’s $750 million a year. This deal was also most likely not as good as it could have been, as Core Scientific signed this deal out of bankruptcy. Despite the nature of this deal, the other Bitcoin miners that have the same AI/HPC capacity that CORZ has have not really been effectively re-rated. My personal favorite in the sector, IREN Limited (IREN), currently has 510 MW, with 400 MW more coming by the end of H1 25, 1.4 GW coming by Q2 2026, and another gigawatt coming down the road. To put that into perspective, 2.4 gigawatts, which IREN is projected to have in the near future, is enough to power roughly 2 million homes. If they were to announce a similar deal to CoreWeave, I would expect it to clear $10 billion. The strong possibility of such a deal has not been priced into IREN’s stock. They are currently trading at $10.97 with a market cap of $2.36 billion as of 1/9’s close. This valuation comes from their Bitcoin mining and cloud services businesses, which brought in roughly $114.3 million in revenue ($85.5 million in profit) in Q4. Annualized, that’s $457.2 million ($341.7 million in profit). So using Q4’s numbers, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E of roughly 6.9x. Remember this valuation is not factoring in any value coming from AI/HPC. The average P/E of the tech sector is 35-40x, with some stocks trading as high as 50x. I believe with IREN’s expansion plans and their history of delivering on their estimates that they could easily reach $75-100 million in monthly profit in 2025 on their Bitcoin mining and cloud services business alone. Calculating $75 million a month and assigning a meager trailing P/E of 10, the stock would be valued at $9 billion (a 4x from current prices). Taking a more generous stance and calculating $100 million in monthly revenue and a hyperscaler deal similar to CORZ, this stock could be bringing in $2+ billion in profit a year. If we take this projection and factor in a more forward-looking P/E of 20, then this stock could reach a market cap of as high as $40 billion (a 17x from here). In short, I believe that IREN is undervalued and is an incredible investment opportunity at these prices. $BTC $HUT $WULF $CIFR

@chiptomunk @DollarCostAvg How does TA show more short term when a deal announcement Monday could send the stock up 20%?

@DollarCostAvg I agree fundamentals are strong long term. TA shows more short term. Like now.

$IREN TA got absolute zero clarity. Stuck in nowhere zone. No hate. Just speaking what I see, not what I wish or what I know will get engagement.

345kV substation energized at Sweetwater 1. Power first, compute next. $IREN

Sweetwater 1 has been successfully energized – a key milestone in the development of the broader 2GW Sweetwater campus. @danroberts0101, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN commented: “Delivering Sweetwater 1 substation energization on schedule reflects our disciplined execution, the strength of our supply chain relationships and the efficiency of our vertically integrated development model. It is another example of our ability to design and construct large-scale infrastructure reliably and at speed to meet market demand.” Learn more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/d…

@asp1re_1nsp1re_ Don’t worry, I’ve taken plenty of profit.

@kerdoscapital I’m happy for you, but worried. Don’t give it back to the market, brother

Local bottom for $IREN here IMO

They’re getting paid to build out their infrastructure plus making a profit and proving their concept with a credit worthy hyperscaler. Seems like a good deal to me. IREN has had multiple ATM’s and that’s not stopped the stock from running hundreds of percents. I’ve made 1,500% on my calls so I’m happy.

@kerdoscapital Dogshit deal for $IREN. Have you actually crunched the numbers? They’re spending $5.8B on hardware alone to service a $2B/year revenue stream, then hitting you with a $6B ATM to fund the burn. $MSFT gets the compute, IREN takes the depreciation risk, and you get the dilution 💀

@asp1re_1nsp1re_ Does a $10b deal with $MSFT ring a bell?

@kerdoscapital EXECUTION IN STANDING UP DESERT SHEDS AND PLUGGING IN MINERS LOL 💀

1. Management has a proven track record of execution. Have never missed a deadline and have consistently outperformed peers in terms of growth. 2. Hard to make the enrichment case when you actually look at the comp structure. The founder options have a $75 exercise price — stock is at $48, so they’re underwater right now. They don’t make anything on those unless it clears $75 first, then hits $370, $650, $925, and $1,850 in tranches. Top tranche is a 38x from here. 93% of their pay is at-risk too, so it’s not like they’re pulling fat salaries in the meantime. The newer grants were set when the stock was $12-13 and top out at $50. Retention grants were issued at $7.72. Management only gets paid if shareholders are already winning. You can hate the business all you want but the comp structure is actually one of the more shareholder-aligned setups out there.

@kerdoscapital Look, I’m trying to help you here, pal. Perform some DD about management's track record. Read the Culper short report and look at the legal history—like the NYDIG miner repo. Grifters at best—good ones at that.

@asp1re_1nsp1re_ 100 before 5

@kerdoscapital NOT EVEN CLOSE. SEE YOU AT 5 BUCK, KID

@rexstocks of you being right

@kerdoscapital low chance

@BitcoinAIGuy wen deal

@kerdoscapital 👀👀👀

@StockSavvyShay 3 Fed members did not support the inclusion of an "easing bias" in the statement how does that tell you that they're tilted toward easing?

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% but the decision drew the most dissenting votes in 34 years with an 8-4 vote split over policy statement. That tells me the Fed is still tilted toward easing even if officials are divided on the pace and wording around future cuts.

Which earnings report are you listening to? $META $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT

@BitcoinAIGuy @aleabitoreddit if you actually know what you’re talking about man up

I challenge Serenity to a public debate on X Spaces, LIVE/RAW/UNCUT Are they/them man or woman enough to accept?

@LandoInvests @_Sgr_A_Star I agree. All signs seem to point that direction. I would say a deal announcement is a lot more uncertain.

Alright $IREN bulls I was driving last night and kept seeing amazing posts from everyone. One in particular that stood out was @_Sgr_A_Star on AUS The part I want to focus on specifically is: “You will work across our Australian project portfolio” This job posting being #onsite is also further validation that @IREN_Ltd has sites in Australia being developed, which many of us speculated. This just validates that speculation. We now know for certain that they’re developing, or as I suspect they already acquired, hundreds of acres in Australia. This is HUGE as we all know $MSFT and @AnthropicAI have made huge investments into the region. With $IREN being HQ’d and advertising with the @sydneyswans + the general area per @TheBigDegen, it makes sense that they already have things in the works. Now, what does this mean for us as investors? I believe that this earnings they’ll officially announce expansion/land acquisitions in the AUS region. You don’t spend money advertising in an area + claiming you have a “global” power portfolio without having something in the works. My predictions for this upcoming earnings: - Successful SW1 energization PR - AUS announcement (maybe another US) - Horizon Updates - SW/Childress deal - GPU delivery status There are a LOT of really good catalysts coming up for $IREN, I expect management to execute and deliver Every week that passes there’s another cancellation, delay, GPU restrictions, or headline highlighting how valuable “time to compute” really is The thesis is simple. Time to compute. Execution is the differentiator. cc: @Agrippa_Inv @jiahanjimliu @bitcoinbutcher1 @FransBakker9812 @SmallCapSnipa @BitcoinAIGuy @mcF_dan

Wow. The White House just announced that grid infrastructure is essential to national defense. This includes transformers, transmission lines and conductors, substations, and high-voltage circuit breakers. Companies working to electrify America will have a big tailwind.

@aleabitoreddit Your constant vendetta against $IREN is getting absurd. Especially when you’re using posts from months ago. I know exactly who that is and no one takes him seriously. Look at the posts of the likes of @FransBakker9812 or @bitcoinbutcher1 for legitimate IREN analysis.

I wasn't joking when I said $IREN community members have low IQ. Since they literally have to fabricate information get people to get others to buy into active dilution. The community shares this sort of BS to convince new retail investors, then does another one a month later for their active $6B ATM. Hint: there's no deal with Anthropic or $IREN. It's an insult to anyone who actually does OSINT/Supply Chain mapping.

They might’ve used a little but I think the majority of the sell off was just ATM hangover and the effects of the high beta sell off due to the Iran conflict. If they used the ATM at all I would expect no deal announcement. It doesn’t make sense why you would use it at $30 or $40 if you knew you were about to announce material news that would raise the stock price.

@kerdoscapital @FinanceCari @AnthropicAI I think they used some but agree that the 🏧 leads with the “bad” news before they go hard these next few weeks with updates

Going into next week, some thoughts… If $IREN partners with @AnthropicAI in 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 , the analysts will begin to quantify the share of secured power before rerating $IREN as the off balance sheet financing arm of the most important company in the world that enables @AnthropicAI to scale faster and with more delivery certainty than any other infrastructure provider. The market cap of $IREN currently sits at just under $20b or 2% of @AnthropicAI valuation. This will change. Then consider delivery of Horizon 1-4 to $MSFT as well the any subsequent projects in 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 that emphasize $IREN as a strategic partner that optimizes time to compute while increasingly growing its portfolio of completed data centers with supporting cash flows from high quality tenants that can be used as assets to ♻️ invested capital into the next data center. The patience required to hold $IREN cannot be understated but when you ignore the day to day volatility you begin to realize that the front loaded infrastructure investments funded by 🏧 and convertible notes serve a greater purpose. In a world of delays and regulatory friction, the data center is the asset. Volume the past two trading days exceeded 100m shares without any announcement. Institutions are knowingly buying the 👸 in the 50s Do you think they are here for 60,70? I don’t think so. If you made it this far, the time for show and tell is almost here.

Exactly they announced the ATM when they did for a reason. I think they learned their lesson about announcing financing after good news was announced and front ran the pain this time. They were never going to dilute the stock under $50. They need the stock price to rise to minimize dilution.

@FinanceCari @kerdoscapital @AnthropicAI I think management is well aware of what coming to earnings empty handed means as it relates to market perception. They need to show progress in order to lessen equity cost of capital. Period.

@longinvest32 A 10x vs a 5x is a pretty significant difference

In reality at 1000$ share price it won’t really matter if we bought at 100$ or 200$ $NBIS