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@cryptoghost_ct

i trade and write my thoughts about @Polymarket member of @zscdao

Katılım Eylül 2025
259 Takip Edilen163 Takipçiler
ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@dipper812 can’t argue bro prediction markets are always ahead
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Dipper
Dipper@dipper812·
I like to take stock of the year and I am solemnly awarding the meta of the Year nomination to prediction markets I tried myself in different areas of the crypto, but the predictions hooked me what do you think?
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@gavelsvtw @BullpenFi what features are already available? i’d like to figure out how it all works
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gavelsv.patron
gavelsv.patron@gavelsvtw·
Today is a big day for me I officially became a @BullpenFi Affiliate I’ve been watching Bullpen closely, and this felt like the right moment to commit I chose Bullpen for a few simple reasons - Strong team - Clear mission to build a real trading terminal - Tools that actually help you trade instead of getting in the way - UX/UI that feels built by traders, not designers guessing what traders want My goal now is straightforward Show people how powerful the Bullpen x @Polymarket integration can be This feels like a new chapter for me, and I’m confident we’re going to make Bullpen something special Polymarket x Bullpen is still in beta, but I’ve got a few access codes If you want one, DM me Want to support me, you can join Bullpen and get bonuses through my link below
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
super bowl 2026 market on @Polymarket is getting spicy current favorites: rams ~16% seahawks ~13% bills ~11% broncos ~10% what surprised me: bookmakers give the rams around 22% to win it all on polymarket they’re sitting at 16% the question is simple: who’s right: bookmakers or Polymarket if the books are right, 16c yes on rams looks cheap if you think this season turns into chaos loading up on a few cheap nos actually makes sense i’m just watching this market build week by week and trying to understand where the real edge is who’s your pick for super bowl 2026?
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Otto Suwen
Otto Suwen@OttoSuwen·
Gm crypto roundtrippoors
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Archive
Archive@ArchiveExplorer·
SpaceX IPO in 2026 valuation $1.5 trillion this will be the largest IPO in history made bets on 3 most obvious options on polymarket $spax - YES conservative choice, clearly references space exploration standard practice for major ipos at $1.5 trillion need seriousness for institutional investors $x - YES ticker currently free, us steel released it after acquisition musk controls xai and social network x plans to integrate stock trading into x might want unified ecosystem around x brand $sex - NO pure provocation in musk's style but at $1.5 trillion too risky nyse definitely won't approve $mars - NO too narrow focus spacex does more than mars: starlink, satellite launches $sx - YES compromise between spax and x short, professional, includes musk's favorite letter musk renamed twitter to x in 2022 merged xai and x in $113 billion deal march 2025 loves letter x and provocations but tesla chose $tsla at IPO, not something provocative made bets on @BullpenFi $1.5 trillion deal too large for memes institutions demand professionalism market: polymarket.com/event/what-wil…
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@Mnilax @Stranger_Things i haven’t watched season 5 yet and i decided to start by rewatching seasons 1 through 4 but with each season i like it less and less :(
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Mnimiy
Mnimiy@Mnilax·
I rewatched Stranger Things Vol. 2 with fresh eyes, and here’s what I think
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
if your returns feel too small - look at this market checking polymarket today: russia - ukraine ceasefire by jan 31 2026 the market gives it only ~12% news sounds like peace is almost ready but the money is basically saying: “nobody signs a formal ceasefire in one month” here’s where it gets interesting: if you buy NO around 0.88 and no ceasefire is officially announced it settles at 1.00 that’s +13–14% in about a month the logic is simple: too many players, too many territorial questions, too much bureaucracy and the war doesn’t look like it’s “on pause” at all the funny part: the market for ceasefire by end of 2026 is almost 50% people believe in peace just not now i want ceasefire to come sooner but the numbers say one thing: timing is on the side of NO what would you take - YES or NO?
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Alena Chramtsova
Alena Chramtsova@AlenaChramtsova·
NEW Polymarket: #1 song on Spotify this week? (January 2) Here are the main contenders in my opinion: >Taylor Swift - "The Fate of Ophelia" (likely favorite) Taylor Swift is holding high daily stream numbers among non-holiday content (around 4.8m streams per day) >Alex Warren - "Ordinary" Track has become a true breakout of the year and is steadily holding its ground He has a huge listener base, and if interest in Taylor Swift cools off a bit over the holidays, Alex Warren has every chance to take first place >HUNTR/X - "Golden" A viral hit showing explosive growth - around 4m daily streams This is the "dark horse" that could pull ahead thanks to fan activity Important: this is a fresh market, liquidity is still thin, and and don't forget to read the rules! Even though I see Taylor Swift as the likely favorite, I still took a small "NO" position. I'll reassess once more volume and liquidity come in and adjust from there In your opinion, which song will be #1 ?
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@zerqfer bro, are there any tools to automate this? i mean buying outcomes across different prediction markets
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ZER
ZER@zerqfer·
I found a tool that will help you find the same event on different prediction markets you could use it for arbitrage IMPORTANT: developer is not popular, so I recommend downloading extension to a browser that you don't use to avoid incidents. link below 👇
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gemchanger
gemchanger@gemchange_ltd·
They are against the ceasefire like they already know the outcome Fresh wallets. Coordinated deposits. Perfect timing. While narrative is "peace is close", these guys are betting it all on failure. Let me show you what I found: Two accounts appeared on Polymarket, both created Dec 2025, both going all-in on NO that "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?": Funding pattern is identical: deposits hitting within days of each other. 60k USDC here, 80k there. Same aggressive buying. Today's headlines say the peace plan is "about 90 percent ready" and talks "are proceeding constructively." A referendum would require at least 60 days and a real ceasefire to be legitimate. But several key issues remain unresolved territorial control, security guarantees, nuclear plant. Some experts thinks the only realistic outcome is a "pause" rather than real peace. mejojo: $61k position, 70k shares at 93¢ @mejojo?via=888" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@mejojo?via=888 0x187Fca3D50d891a3: $90k position, 103k shares at 92¢ @0x187Fca3D50d891a39009186679CC61640e86217F-1765218734833?via=888" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0x187Fca3D50d… Degen gamblers or people with better calendars than us?
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@lorden_eth how does this actually work? and why is the profit so big?
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Lorden
Lorden@lorden_eth·
I've found an automated AI trading bot that made $27k for the last 6 predictions betting on the weather forecast That's crazy how we went from BTC trading bots to the weather predictor bots Is it a new meta? Then I need an AI bot to trade egg prices on Polymarket Just look at this profile: @automatedAItradingbot?via=lorden" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@automatedAItr
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@jasper_b3ll feels like this stuff should be fully automated if you try to do it manually you’ll misclick sooner or later
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Jasper BΞll
Jasper BΞll@jasperbellx·
Cross Prediction Markets Arbitrage. Strategies. Risks. Tools. This is one of the most popular and most discussed types of arbitrage among traders. 1. The Core Arbitrage Strategy: > We look for a price difference between the same outcome on different prediction markets > We buy opposite outcomes on different platforms > Any outcome win = profit 2. How to find trades It is very important that the markets you choose have good volume compared to your position size. Low-liquidity markets can become a problem and add extra risk. By using tools (listed below), we can find the same markets on different platforms and compare prices. The goal is to get one condition: YES (pm1) + NO (pm2) < $1 The bigger the gap (1 - sum of outcomes), the higher your profit. You do not need to wait for the market to resolve. You can already be in profit if the spread becomes smaller. For example: If you bought at 45c and 50c, and later prices move to 50/50, you are already in profit. There is no need to wait for 100/0 or 0/100. 3. Risks of This Arbitrage Strategy: Main risks to keep in mind: > Limit orders risk. it is important. If the market is very volatile, you may fill one side, while the limit order on the other market does not fill. Always check bid/ask spread. See if you can enter with limits below market price or use market buy if needed. > Resolution source risk. If platforms use different sources or interpret results differently, there is a rare case where same outcomes can lose on different platforms. > Rule differences. Sometimes markets look the same, but rules are written differently. This can lead to mistakes if not checked carefully. > Liquidity risk. Low liquidity makes it hard not only to enter, but also to exit. You may get stuck in a position and be forced to wait for resolution or more volume. > Fees. Some prediction markets charge fees, which can eat part of your profit. 4. Toolkit for arbitrage @securezer0 — one of the most useful arbitrage parsers across different prediction markets. Very handy and has more features. @PredictionHunt — cross-market arbitrage parser. @ArbBets20 — cross-market arbitrage parser. There are other tools as well but these are some of the top ones.
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@dunik_7 good strategy bro i did the same thing in cs2
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dunik
dunik@dunik_7·
Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Today on Netflix, there will be this legendary fight between professional boxer Joshua and blogger Jake Paul. As for me, Joshua is the clear favorite here, so I will bet on him with a "Yes" bet. The price for Jake Paul to win is 10.8¢. I have an idea to buy this bet and sell it during the fight to collect my few Xs. I'm going to buy "Yes" Paul at a low price because I believe he can take a few rounds and make us money.
dunik@dunik_7

Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua TLDR; On 19 December, professional boxer Anthony Joshua will face blogger Jake Paul in Miami. It will be a professional fight, 8 rounds of 3 minutes each with 10-ounce gloves. Market link polymarket.com/event/boxing-j… In my opinion, the winner here is obvious - it's Anthony Joshua My main thoughts: / Class divide > AJ's opponents include Usyk, Klitschko, Povetkin, Ngannou, and Dubois. > Paul's team consists mainly of former MMA fighters and veterans. > In a clean 8-round bout, this is a mockery of the opponent's level. / Differences in physical parameters > Even with a limit of 245 pounds, Joshua is a heavyweight monster with real one-punch power. > Paul is a cruiser who plays in the heavyweight division at the level of Netflix shows. / Motivation > For AJ, losing to Paul would essentially be the end of his boxing legacy. > He has an incentive not to "box out the rounds," but to destroy. The only reason AJ could lose is if Jake doesn't show up for the fight, in which case it won't happen. I am one hundred percent behind AJ and will bet on him. NFA DYOR

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verax
verax@journoverax·
gensyn public sale... time's runnin out and theyve only raised 5m whales fcked this sale cuz of its mechanics + most top traders hold NO positions a reasonable pick is no >20m
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
NAVI vs FURIA today furia are the favorites so i’m not touching this pre match i’ll wait for live trying to catch a price around 60 cents if it looks like furia are really in the game taking furia on @Polymarket what do you expect from this match?
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
@Atlantislq list of polymarket legends
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Atlantis liquidity
Atlantis liquidity@Atlantislq·
I decided to make a personal list of Polymarket KOLs that I will actively follow and interact with. I will gradually add users who regularly interact with my content, share really interesting thoughts, and do it all without any AI slop. I think I will add around 35-40 people who I find interesting. Btw, I am ready to make the list public and share it with u if this post gets 250 likes
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ghost
ghost@cryptoghost_ct·
falcons vs spirit today and honestly i’ve been thinking a lot about who to ride with falcons always seemed to find a way to beat spirit in the recent matches and their map pool is really solid that’s just the truth but watching spirit on this major the way donk is tearing through every map the confidence the whole team is playing with it just feels like today might be their moment i don’t know maybe it’s intuition maybe i just want to believe in a good story but i’m going with spirit i’m taking spirit on @Polymarket hope they don’t let me down who you supporting today?
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