seneca

9.6K posts

seneca banner
seneca

seneca

@cryptoseneca

Tlön Katılım Mart 2016
453 Takip Edilen28K Takipçiler
seneca
seneca@cryptoseneca·
.@citrinowicz has been my go to for following the middle east situation. all moves going forward are horrible. the question isn’t if there’s escalation, it’s how much is already priced in. (not enough imo)
Fareed Zakaria@FareedZakaria

“For the US – unfortunately – we don’t have good options. Only bad options.” That’s what @citrinowicz, who served as head of the Iran branch of Israel’s military intelligence, told me as we discussed Donald Trump’s threats to step up US attacks on Iran. Part 1 of our conversation:

English
0
0
0
290
Duca
Duca@big_duca·
Man it’s actually crazy how much people are spending on AI. Bc they feel like they are going to be left behind. But then they are not producing actually economically valuable outputs. It feels just like the FOMO of NFTs from 2021. Different form, same thing.
English
83
21
364
12.4K
seneca retweetledi
HFI Research
HFI Research@HFI_Research·
Some context on the magnitude of the OPEC+ supply outage.
HFI Research tweet media
English
2
35
140
15K
wiz
wiz@0xWiz_·
ai gives me nft vibes. in a bad way
English
3
0
2
169
seneca retweetledi
niko
niko@saintniko·
there’s no greater joy in life than to be completely obsessed with something
English
15
10
119
3.7K
seneca
seneca@cryptoseneca·
@BenKizemchuk has post feb 28th events changed your prev outlook? seems like the worst possible addition to an already bad set of circumstances
English
0
0
1
240
seneca retweetledi
contra
contra@ezcontra·
everyone is bearish but few are positioned
English
17
10
148
9.1K
seneca
seneca@cryptoseneca·
This makes visceral the idea that underpins The Sovereign Individual: the economics of violence is the hidden variable that defines economic/political eras. During the industrial age, you needed massive scale to monopolize violence. The nation state dominated precisely because it was the only one that could muster the resources. TSI predicted that those ratios woulc collapse. The advent of cheap disposable technology gives advantage to smaller, more agile, non-state groups. The attackers cost approaches zero relative to the defender’s loss. Iran’s whole strategy is showcasing how no amount of capital can defend fixed infrastructure against disposable technology.
Zephyr@zephyr_z9

$40k drones destroy $100 billion in revenue

English
0
0
2
391
seneca retweetledi
Imran Lakha | Options Insight
Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight·
Why you need to vol-adjust your expectations... SPX drops 1.5% on the week and financial Twitter loses its mind. But if implied vol is pricing a 3% weekly move, that 1.5% is half a sigma. Statistically, it's a non-event. The market expected worse. Meanwhile oil rallies 5%, but with vol north of 100, that 5% move is also less than 1 sigma. The market expected that too. You're calibrated to the last regime. A 1.5% drop felt like a big deal when vol was 12. It shouldn't when vol is 30. Don't react to percentages. Convert every move into sigma (standard deviations based on current implied vol) and ask: relative to what the market was already expecting, was this actually significant? Usually the answer is no.
English
6
20
115
7.5K
seneca
seneca@cryptoseneca·
@jasongoepfert @BenKizemchuk are these two related: passive flows + dealer gamma are absorbing record outflows which prevents indices from showing their hand?
Ben Kizemchuk@BenKizemchuk

You really need to pause and appreciate the engineering behind this. Implied volatility isn’t supposed to look like a clean, persistent trend. It’s usually nothing but sharp, momentary spikes. Getting vol to trend like this is a completely different level of difficulty. Moves like this inevitably attract the attention of trend‑following systems, if they haven’t already locked on. Most people are not prepared for a market regime where volatility itself becomes a trending asset class.

English
0
0
1
605
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert@jasongoepfert·
The boat is getting tippy. About $64 billion has come out of SPY + QQQ over the past 3 months. That's nearly double the previous decade's extreme. Still not all that extreme as a % of assets tho.
Jason Goepfert tweet mediaJason Goepfert tweet media
English
18
35
245
55.7K
0age
0age@z0age·
so @NadavAHollander and I have been cooking on a new project if you’re regularly trawling your feed on the hunt for fresh information but are drowning in a firehose of unrelated slop… then you should reach out! we still have room for a few more curious minds in the first wave
English
51
1
148
14.1K
seneca
seneca@cryptoseneca·
I asked my orchestrator to boot up agents and have them discuss fun topics live in whatsapp doomscrolling v2
English
0
0
1
303
seneca
seneca@cryptoseneca·
@big_duca “This is my accountant”
English
1
0
2
807
Duca
Duca@big_duca·
“Dude did you vibe code this slop? This feature sucks!” Been getting this more recently. And no, I didn't “vibe” it. Did you ever consider, for one single second… That I might just be retarded? And I wrote this organic slop myself?
English
222
1.1K
25.8K
604.4K
seneca
seneca@cryptoseneca·
The first team to crack through the stables & defi narrative with a fun new meta for a 2021 esque 5 year adventure is going to unleash creativity like never before in this space. We’re all super shadowy coders now.
seneca tweet media
English
0
0
1
187
Leighton
Leighton@lay2000lbs·
I'm a bit late but it's so clear that blockchains are built for agents. Haven't had a product experience this magical since trying Compound + MakerDAI for the first time in 2018
English
6
4
76
5.3K

Keşfet

@citrinowicz @big_duca @0xWiz_ @saintniko @BenKizemchuk @jasongoepfert @z0age @NadavAHollander