George
881 posts
seems more people are beginning to understand hip-4 extends way beyond prediction markets
dm's still open
smac@0xsmac
the argument that perps will suffocate onchain crypto options before they scale misunderstands convexity demand deribit will likely die inside cb too fwiw
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What limits the demand for prediction markets as a hedge, in most cases, is the intelligence (compute) of the hedgers! This is a problem orthogonal from the development of prediction markets today.
One lesson I learned on a vol pod is that most institutions don't really care WHY prices go down, but simply IF they go down. To hedge some equities, buying an index put is far easier and more justifiable to LPs/ICs than decomposing the risks and buying targeted hedges, even if the latter were cheaper.
Luckily the compute problem is actively being addressed by other industries :).
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When does a prediction market become cheaper than the derivative pricing the same risk?
This question will drive how prediction markets will fit in with existing derivatives, and forecast which markets will get institutional adoption first.
Definitely worth a read.
Lauris@lzminsky
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WANTED: PSYCHOHISTORIANS
Seeking exceptional candidates with advanced training in stochastic processes, sociology of masses, and predictive modeling of large-scale human behavior.
Candidates must demonstrate:
• Mastery of n-variable differential equations governing societal dynamics
• Ability to extrapolate historical trends across millennia with statistical rigor
• Willingness to operate under conditions of utmost discretion
Successful applicants will join a small, elite team developing a revolutionary framework for forecasting the future of the Galactic Empire. Work involves collaboration with Dr. Hari Seldon and select colleagues. Compensation: intellectual fulfillment + secure accommodations on Trantor (or relocation to designated peripheral projects).
This is not a position for those seeking public acclaim or imperial favor. Only those who understand that the fate of trillions may rest on precise probabilistic analysis need apply.
Reply via encrypted channel: Project Prime Radiant – Reference “Seldon Initiative.”
Vague inquiries will be ignored. Talent will be noticed.
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@MoogRogue @cremieuxrecueil until we figured out we could charge ten men a 35% interest rate on their debt, and still be fine if all but two default, since those two's interest + the collateral would get us a 6% return
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The invention of debt has probably created more prosperity than anything else in human history.
le.hl@0xleegenz
I can't believe human were gifted a planet with full of trees, fruit, water, animals and sunshine and then they invented debt, capitalism and war
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Fed10 (@fed10ai) is building AI lobbyists.
Their agents already help companies catch and suppress regulatory threats that would have cost millions in compliance before anyone saw them coming.
Congrats on the launch, @armandiorg, @winstonwxi & @zayandc!
ycombinator.com/launches/PdT-f…
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@luanalopeslara why don't you argue that prediction markets are gambling markets and yet they shouldn't be regulated like real libertarians
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Bloomberg praises the “consumer protections” of the... gaming industry where companies like BetMGM have been accused of sending marketing emails to entice 14-year-olds.
Every gambling operator limits winners while preying on losers, their KPI is simple: make customers lose more.
Meanwhile Kalshi welcomes winners: has nationwide self-limits, self-exclusion, responsible trading tools - and no house targeting consumer losses.
Bloomberg you're one of the must trusted source of news that I read, please do better research.
Bloomberg Opinion@opinion
Prediction markets are gambling markets. They should be regulated accordingly bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
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@TheStudyofWar Because Russia has something that Iran does not have (but is trying to attain) 🤦♂️
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MORE: The US-Israeli combined strike campaign is targeting missile and drone production and storage facilities throughout Iran. The United States, however, has long denied Ukraine the weapons necessary to do the same to Russian facilities.
Ukrainian forces are able to conduct long-range drone strikes against a significant portion of Russia’s rear, but these drones’ payloads are limited and not suitable to destroy hardened objects or large facilities. Ukraine has therefore repeatedly requested US-produced Tomahawk missiles, a request that the United States ultimately denied in Fall 2025.
The US provision of a small number of Tomahawks to Ukraine would likely enable Ukrainian forces to significantly damage or even destroy key missile and drone production and storage facilities deep in the Russian rear, particularly highly concentrated production areas such as the Shahed drone factory at the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in the Republic of Tatarstan (roughly 1,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border).
Ukraine would likely also be able to significantly damage Russian missile production sites in the rear with Tomahawks, such as the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Votkinsk, Udmurtia Republic (roughly 1,300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border) that manufactures a variety of ballistic missiles.
Ukrainian forces struck Alabuga with long-range drones in 2025 and struck the Votkinsk plant with Ukrainian-produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles in February 2026. These previous Ukrainian strikes did not destroy or disable the Alabuga or Votkinsk plants, however.
US provisions of Tomahawks in Fall 2025 could have helped Ukraine to strike drone and missile production and storage sites in the Russian rear as Ukraine continued to develop and produce its own Flamingo missiles.
Such Tomahawk strikes may have been able to significantly degrade Russia’s Winter 2025-2026 long-range missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
Institute for the Study of War@TheStudyofWar
NEW: The United States and Israel are striking Iran’s drone and missile facilities to reduce the pressure on missile and drone interceptors – a capability the United States is denying Ukraine by refusing to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles. Other key takeaways ⬇️ Russian officials continue to condemn the US-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to support the United States. Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in mid to late February 2026 for the first time since Ukraine's Summer 2023 counteroffensive. The Russian military command continues to operate in an alternate reality, setting wildly unrealistic deadlines that do not match Russia’s actual battlefield capabilities. Russia has failed to achieve the objectives of its Winter 2025-2026 long-range missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure. Insider reports continue to indicate that the Kremlin is expecting the war to continue until at least the September 2026 State Duma elections. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk.
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@bebeckhardt @GrainStats every repeating data release with economic consequence should be added to Kalshi. go further than corn yields.
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@GrainStats Should we add national corn yields to Kalshi?
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still can’t bet on national Corn yields directly but we have this 🙈
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone
*ROLEX ENTHUSIASTS GET KALSHI CONTRACTS TO BET ON WATCH PRICES
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@DeepDishEnjoyer peepeepoopoo may i suggest a big tiddy goth mamacita to distract you from ur eternal woes
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Tiger parents have been practicing nominative determinism forever
Melian Refugee@escapefrommelos
I am sorry but WHAT
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What Reza Pahlavi is attempting to do—by declaring himself Iran's "transitional leader"—is dangerous and will only destabilize the situation further.
Pahlavi has next to no support inside the country, as he is literally the son of the man who was overthrown by the Iranian people after years of brutality, theft and oppressive rule.
The Iranian people will not resort back to a tyrannical monarchy after freeing themselves of a tyrannical Islamic regime.
This would be a formula for disaster.
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just hours ago people would take coin flip odds by march 15th. just nuts, cult-like behavior by the "nothing ever happens" fanatics. and in one of the worst markets to do it in, where you are sure to be adversely selected by insiders. the one i spotted earlier tonight made 100k
peepeepoopoo@DeepDishEnjoyer
we are definitely striking. polymarket odds are laughable
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@tolstoybb what do you mean? the American Empire is just beginning lmao
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Yes, the American empire dead. Cope on all sides, it's over. State-directed "American dynamism" is a cash grab. Everyone is trying to steal as much as they can before the state collapses into unrest and economic ruin.
spor@sporadica
half the replies be like “you know we’re racing with CHINA right!!??? to beat them we must ALSO corrupt the free market and indulge authoritarian impulses too!!! lmao, idiot”
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@teortaxesTex do NOT talk about Meowl like that. he’s a new soul living in a strange world learning bout how to give and take.
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It's funny that they're shitposting but there's clear pain too. I concede I feel it. This plucky little creature is a better invention than Meowl. He fights for his life with spunk, he has hope. Until a traitorous blow from behind… This does stir feelings. True cinema.
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this video was like 7 9/11s for a certain demographic of Agarthan warriors. 4 Three Gorge Dams won't be enough to avenge the cheems.
Sizhe思哲@Sizhe_bitcat
铁子们这菜怎么吃啊
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