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@dabiggapicta

front-running the Cantillion Effect

Katılım Ocak 2017
390 Takip Edilen889 Takipçiler
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dabiggapicture
dabiggapicture@dabiggapicta·
Keller-Sutter: "Die Armeewaffen sind verändert, die kann man nicht mit grossen Magazinen schiessen". Fakt: Vollautomaten werden nach Abgabe zu Halbautomaten geändert. Auch Fakt: Frau Bundesrätin, Sie haben keine Ahnung, wovon Sie da reden. @zac1967 @ReneTruninger @LiberalArmsCH
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10Δ
10Δ@_10delta_·
Clarity Act is now poised to accelerate the “Bretton Woods 3.0” framework that I’ve talked about. The yield “ban” is cosmetic & simply something for banks to tout as a victory. It bans stablecoins from paying you interest for just holding them: the way a savings account does. But it explicitly allows stablecoins to pay you rewards for using them: buying things, lending, providing liquidity, participating in any program.. Now consider that those rewards can be calculated based on how much you hold & for how long. I think that’s what we just call interest, but it will now be rebranded under a new name. So, the implications: - The fact that there is now a carve-out for stablecoin yield will accelerate the Bretton Woods 3.0 system. If the ban had been real (no yield in any form) there’s no reason for anyone to hold stablecoins over a bank account. Stablecoin adoption would flatline (especially in Developed Markets) & Bessent’s $3.7T target would be hard to achieve. This carve out keeps the incentive to hold stablecoins, which keeps the growth flywheel spinning. - CBDCs can’t compete. No central bank would design its digital currency to pay activity based rewards calculated by balance & duration (too close to monetary policy). However, dollar stablecoins can. So in every market where a CBDC competes against a $ stablecoin, the dollar product is economically superior. The Clarity Act now guarantees that advantage persists. - The dollar now goes global without permission. The new text allows platforms to pay incentives for payments, remittances, & settlement activity using stablecoins. That’s a subsidy for global dollar adoption funded by private companies (not taxpayers). Meanwhile, increasing Treasury demand in the background. For example, a Filipino worker now gets a rebate for sending remittances in USDC. There’s an additional incentive for him to now transact in stablecoins, which, unbeknownst to him, purchases American debt behind the scenes. A win-win for global stablecoin users & the American economy (fiscal situation). The compromise looks like a ban. But it’s actually a growth mandate. As I’ve stated, the US government needs stablecoins to scale because it needs someone to buy its debt. Bretton Woods 3.0
Faryar Shirzad 🛡️@faryarshirzad

The final rewards text in the CLARITY Act is now public. We’ve been clear throughout this process: much of this debate was based on imagined risks, not real evidence, nor was it based on a real understanding of how crypto actually works. Nevertheless, the crypto industry showed up to engage. Through months of meetings, the @WhiteHouse, @USTreasury, @BankingGOP, @SenThomTillis and @Sen_Alsobrooks finally arrived at a compromise. In the end, the banks were able to get more restrictions on rewards, but we protected what matters – the ability for Americans to earn rewards, based on real usage of crypto platforms and networks. We also ensured the US can be at the forefront of the financial system – which in this competitive geopolitical era is paramount. That’s important for innovation, consumers and America's national security. Now that this issue is behind us, it’s time to focus on the broader bill. While this debate has been underway, lots of progress has been made on other areas like token classification, defi, and tokenization. We’re excited to review the full, final text, and for the bill to move forward. It’s time to get CLARITY done.

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J.N.
J.N.@Jesucrypto11·
$COIN 1M People shorting HTF support at 0.618 with such wick absorption... Good luck.
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CryptoBoss
CryptoBoss@CryptoBoss1984·
$BTC FUNDING RATES JUST WENT FULLY NUCLEAR NEGATIVE. The entire market is balls deep short. But here’s the brutal truth from history: Extreme negative funding is NOT bearish — it’s napalm for shorts. Look at the past squeezes: - 2022 FTX collapse: 50 days of deeply negative funding at the $15.5k bottom → violent rip to $23k (+48%) in weeks as shorts got torched. - 2021 China mining ban: ~45 days negative around $29k → explosive rally to $48k (+65%). - 2020 COVID crash: Extreme negative at $3k bottom → the start of the monster bull run that took us to $69k. These exact setups lit the fuse for some of the most savage squeezes in $BTC history. Right now we’re at 46+ days negative — matching the 2022 bottom regime, while price grinds higher. Shorts aren’t just wrong. They’re trapped. Every over leveraged short is future rocket fuel. The crowd is piled in like clueless sheep again. And the market always slaughters the crowd at extremes. The squeeze is loading. Get ready to watch bears get absolutely fucking liquidated.
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Adam Livingston
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv·
ASST Stock Price Projections The main reason I bought ASST shares and call options in February is because the balance sheet was set up to be amazingly resilient and they could service the dividends on SATA easily for 2 years, and the opening for an entry for a levered bet on Bitcoin was phenomenal. - discounted to Bitcoin NAV - near 50% BTC amplification - approved ATM facility - SATA still maturing - almost zero debt - simple/clean structure Was an obvious buy. OTM call options returns looked like an amazing value when I just looked at the forward 12-24 month returns of Bitcoin after 40-50% drawdowns throughout history. ASST still looks violently mispriced if Bitcoin simply reverts back to the power law trendline. Yes... that is an IF. Just like all models. I'm confident we'll see a return to trend AT LEAST in the next couple years with all of the amazing catalysts for the asset. You don't have to be bullish like me. Have fun staying poor. Now: I ran a CEBE-based scenario map using Strive’s current balance sheet, then layered in two additional cases where BTC Yield keeps compounding through SATA issuance with zero common dilution. Here’s what falls out: Current ASST price: $15.85 EOY 2026, BTC at $200k, no added BTC: $34.62 to $69.24 EOY 2026, BTC at $200k, annualized BTC Yield via SATA: $38.29 to $76.58 EOY 2027, BTC at $275k, no added BTC: $49.19 to $98.38 EOY 2027, BTC at $275k, annualized BTC Yield continues: $61.64 to $123.29 If ASST simply holds today’s approximate 1.46x CEBE multiple, the model lands around: $50.60 by end of 2026 on the current balance sheet $55.97 by end of 2026 with annualized BTC Yield $71.90 by end of 2027 on the current balance sheet $90.11 by end of 2027 with continued BTC Yield To be clear: I think it's entirely possible they add more Bitcoin than this scenario. Do I know they will? Nope. But these are staggering returns requiring zero Bitcoin bull markets by historical standards. Why this works: CEBE strips away the fairy dust and asks one question: How much Bitcoin is actually left for common shareholders after senior claims are accounted for? That matters because as BTC rises: the company’s BTC stack gets repriced upward debt and preferred claims stay fixed in dollars those fixed fiat claims shrink in BTC terms common equity captures more of the upside That is the entire game. With ASST’s current structure, the stock already has a lot of embedded torque. If they continue using SATA to acquire more BTC without issuing more common, that torque gets even stronger because common shareholders are effectively sitting behind a growing Bitcoin reserve while the denominator stays clean. The beauty here is that the upside does not require some insane meme-stock premium. It just requires: Bitcoin to move toward the power law management to keep compounding BTC per share intelligently common dilution to stay restrained the market to eventually price the common on its true Bitcoin exposure The market still looks at some of these treasury companies like they’re weird little financial science experiments. They’re not. They’re machines for converting fixed fiat liabilities into asymmetric common equity upside through Bitcoin repricing. If BTC hits $200k in 2026 and $275k in 2027, ASST starts looking less like a sleepy small cap and more like a compressed spring with a flamethrower attached to it. CEBE makes the whole thing easier to see: today’s structure already has upside continued BTC Yield makes it much nastier the stock price path gets silly fast if Bitcoin cooperates This is what happens when Wall Street keeps valuing a Bitcoin torque vehicle like it’s a normal stock.
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TheNvsibleHand[FOREVER ➞₿🔑]
TheNvsibleHand[FOREVER ➞₿🔑]@TheNvsibleHand·
$KEEL breaks 6.60 then it's Blue sky's bottom line is the stock is severely undervalued worth 10 B -44 B + depending on time frame for MW pipe yet it still trading under 2 B The real fun starts when it breaks the 6.60 level
GIF
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dabiggapicture
dabiggapicture@dabiggapicta·
@Micro2Macr0 @82airbornebilly From a risk and diversification perspective, I'd rather buy JEPQ vs STRC with a very similar yield. That's just a pure "how do I boost my income somewhat safely" perspective though. It's a cool thing for sure, what they do.
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Micro2Macr0
Micro2Macr0@Micro2Macr0·
@82airbornebilly It's consuming money from a different market than stocks (equity). This time it's taking from everything from Bonds to Savings account. $100's of trillions in that space.
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Erastus J
Erastus J@erastusj003·
@dabiggapicta @estherzelda0514 @Cr7Godbrand You can’t clearly… where is it mentioned that they do low skilled jobs😂 Fucking retard invents things to justify stupid positions Don’t reproduce and add your low family’s iQ genes to the gene pool
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STUNNER
STUNNER@Cr7Godbrand·
Employing a thousand young men means a thousand women will likely marry and form a thousand new families. However, employing a thousand women could leave a thousand young men unemployed, potentially leading to a thousand women remaining unmarried. You can't prioritize jobs for a gender that naturally selfish, hoarding money, and doesn’t care about the extinction of their race, country, traditions, religion, and families. This is what’s contributing to declining birth rates by giving jobs to more women who primarily focus on themselves. You place selfish beings above givers.
Hoops@Hoopss

What opinion will get you in this position?

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dabiggapicture
dabiggapicture@dabiggapicta·
@matthughes13 You can ask Gert van Lagen to draw a negative parabola. Not only will he make the price go to zero and below, but the parabola will be so steep, it'll go back in time and price will have crashed into said level last year the latest.
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The Great Mattsby
The Great Mattsby@matthughes13·
I can make a case for $ETH going to 200k by using the 2017 fractal Can you make a case for it to go to 0?
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Shibo
Shibo@GodsBurnt·
Nobody is connecting these dots… The COVID pandemic shifted the economy’s timeline, and it needed to be fixed. Since COVID, the midterm years were bearish, incumbents lost the midterms, and then lost the elections 2 years later. Trump is fixing this. Think about the sequence… >War starts in February >New Fed chair takes over in May >Rate cuts begin in June >Tariff refunds hit in summer >Tax refunds get spent >Economy visibly BOOMING by fall >Midterms in November Every single headwind that hurt Americans in 2025 is being removed on exactly the right timeline to make voters feel wealthy before they cast a ballot. The war was never really about Iran’s nuclear program. The tariffs were never really about trade. They were pressure valves used as leverage. Things you create so you can remove them and get credit for the relief. The American voter votes with their wallet, and Trump knows this better than anyone alive. The economy was suppressed on purpose. The boom was always coming. The timing was always the point. The people who understand this are the ones who will make generational wealth.
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J.N.
J.N.@Jesucrypto11·
2-month compression in many cases. Some have already broken out of it to the upside. I don't think the rest will take much longer to resolve this compression. Several signs building a stronger case for this to be a bottom accumulation for them after this base started almost 2.5 months ago.
J.N.@Jesucrypto11

Coins I'm tracking have been forming a bottom for 2 months, unable to break below early Feb lows and making HLs in a very tight range (boredom, lack of interest = bottom signals). Meanwhile, follower count is going down, interactions at ATL and participants either mostly defeated or out. This sounds familiar.

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Zineb Riboua
Zineb Riboua@zriboua·
Second, Iran's revolutionary theology teaches that adversity confirms the righteousness of believers and that enemies validate prophecy, which means eschatological conviction has entirely consumed the space where strategic analysis would otherwise operate. Arabs are watching a regime facing institutional collapse before the promised fulfillment arrives, one that has no doctrinal mechanism to absorb that failure and no capacity to assess it, because in Iranian doctrinal terms, the United States was never a potential negotiating partner but a Dajjalic force of deception and corruption. What Arab observers find most damning is precisely this, that a regime organizing an entire region around its prophetic vision cannot explain, even to itself, why the prophecy is unraveling. The theological and revolutionary mindset described above may seem dense to the uninitiated, but it is precisely the background in which the Arab world is now processing Iran's institutional and religious disintegration. zinebriboua.com/p/the-irgcs-es…
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Zineb Riboua
Zineb Riboua@zriboua·
My latest The IRGC's Eschatological Gamble and the Arab World's Verdict How the Arab World Reads the IRGC In a certain sense, the Islamic Republic runs an eschatological project that happens to possess a government. What it actually builds toward, always, is Qiyamah, the Day of Judgment. For Khomeini, Karbala and Qiyamah formed a single continuous arc, a battlefield that time never closed, still accumulating its martyrs, still moving toward its predetermined conclusion. In ideologies centered on the end of the world, believers discover a profound certainty that removes all doubt about the future. This conviction serves as a divine promise. History does not remain truly open-ended, since God has already determined its final outcome. A normal Western politician carefully weighs risks and adapts to changing circumstances. But the true committed IRGC revolutionary, driven by this unshakable faith, inhabits an entirely different relationship with time. For him, the final victory is already secured. The present does not create the future, and merely confirms what was always destined to occur. But this orientation collides at every point with the mainstream Sunni worldview, which treats Judgment Day as a matter of divine concealment rather than political schedule. Sunni tradition forbids the forcing of providence and regards any state organized around accelerating the end of history as a deviation from Islam rather than its fulfillment. The Arab world reads the IRGC through this very lens, and what it sees is not a pious republic being tested, but a heterodox project masquerading as the fulfillment of faith, structurally incapable of assessing its strategic failures. zinebriboua.com/p/the-irgcs-es…
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Mark
Mark@markchadwickx·
Alts vs BTC just flashed signals we haven’t seen since 2020... Right before the Alt Season that printed millionaires and make legends overnight. This one could be even bigger: • 5 years of compression → about to resolve • Macro trendline breakout incoming • Bullish crossover (first in years) • 4 straight green monthly candles What's been missing? The Fed. In 2020, they injected ~$5T in liquidity and ignited the last cycle. Since then → QT. That’s over. Now they’re pushing billions back into the system - and it’s starting to show. If this plays out Alt Season 2026 takes it to a whole new level.
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CryptoBoss
CryptoBoss@CryptoBoss1984·
$BTC Livermore’s Accumulation cylinder shows super cycle is unfolding — $200K target. If this plays out, we would be entering Stage 8. MACD just confirmed a bullish cross and turning green. You gotta flip bias now. Don't fade it!
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