dacap

799 posts

dacap

dacap

@dacap

Katılım Temmuz 2007
430 Takip Edilen46 Takipçiler
dacap
dacap@dacap·
@Ben_Brunier Thanks for answering and the honesty! Same boat here
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Benjamin Brunier
Benjamin Brunier@Ben_Brunier·
@dacap Hey, I do ! I'm accumulating on another account. It will be long to flip but I'm long term here so..
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Benjamin Brunier
Benjamin Brunier@Ben_Brunier·
Ça y est le marché a compris que l'AI va être déployé par les SaaS et non par les remplacer ? $ABDE $NOW
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Say No To Trading
Say No To Trading@SayNoToTrading·
Haven't mentioned Ryan Specialty $RYAN in a while because every time I write about it, only a couple people chime in with useful content. One of them is @griffonomics and he did an episode on it, which I recommend: youtu.be/iVcFllDHbNg Prior to launching Ryan Specialty, Patrick Ryan founded $AON and served as its Chairman and CEO for 41 years. Ryan is a leading wholesale brokerage and specialty lines insurer known for its substantial footprint in the E&S market. The fill the gap between retail insurance brokers and E&S carriers for complex or hard-to-place commercial risks. AI can't disrupt this if you understand it. Most interesting tidbit? He is using his own personal $RYAN stock to incentivize talent. Not diluting more but offering up his own. That's a legit CEO right there. Price is still very low. Barely above the IPO from 5 years ago, despite the growth since. Financials from Gurufocus.
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
On top of losing talent
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Ismael
Ismael@ismael27_X·
No es lo mismo invertir un dinero que no te importaría perder y que no necesitas para nada que un dinero que si lo haga. El conocimiento es la base, pero el verdadero potencial se desata cuando de verdad sientes que te da igual lo que pueda pasar con ese dinero porque no tienes ninguna necesidad ni compromiso derivada de él ni en el presente ni en el futuro. Es en ese momento cuando uno pierde toda la presión mental que pudiera tener y trata las cosas de la forma más fría y racional posible, tal y como son. Es lo que marca la diferencia entre invertir a largo plazo y multiplicar por muchas veces de tomar malas decisiones de compra y venta porque “te da miedo de que caiga si lo tienes o de que suba si no”. Llegar a ese punto es un privilegio. Elon Musk ha arriesgado toda su vida como lo ha hecho porque ya tenia todo lo que podía necesitar o desear asegurado de por vida previamente gracias a un éxito inicial. El rico se hace más rico porque no tiene presión por tomar riesgos y acertar en situaciones donde la asimetría riesgo- beneficio juega a su favor y sabe que puede ejecutar con las posibilidades de su lado por loco que parezca al inicio. Lo mismo ocurre en la inversión en renta variable o private equity cuando uno apunta alto y es ambicioso.
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
Viresque acquirit eundo {Cobra fuerza a medida que avanza}
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@Posacc Al final tendré que hacerte caso!
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SP
SP@Posacc·
No me hablen de dividendos. Nada mejor que la venta de call cubiertas, sobre activos en cartera.
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@Ben_Brunier As another user mentions, concession expires in 2030. Bromine is only 17% of $ICL income and total market for bromine is between 2B to 3’2B, therefore, there’s upside but quite limited apparently. Thanks for sharing!
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Benjamin Brunier
Benjamin Brunier@Ben_Brunier·
Spent Sunday analyzing the most overlooked mineral in the AI supply chain. Not lithium. Not cobalt. Not copper. Bromine. And one company controls 38% of global supply. $ICL extracts bromine from the dead sea, the most concentrated bromine source on earth at 4,500–5,000 ppm. This is a geological moat. No competitor can replicate it. 38% of global capacity. 280,000 tonnes/year. $ALB and $LXS are the only other meaningful players. Both currently loss-making. Most people know bromine from high school chemistry. A reddish-brown liquid. But in its purified industrial form, it becomes something else entirely. It becomes the chemical razor that carves transistors into silicon. Raw bromine → reacted with hydrogen → becomes HBr gas → injected into plasma etching chambers → selectively removes atomic layers of silicon with nanometer precision No other chemistry is approved across every major fab on earth. Bromine → semiconductor-grade HBr gas → plasma etching → DRAM & NAND transistor structures Every Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron memory chip on Earth is etched using hydrogen bromide. No bromine → no memory → no AI servers. Full stop. The two bromine supply chains, industrial and semiconductor-grade, diverge permanently at conversion. Flame retardant bromine cannot be reconverted into fab-grade HBr. The purification requires dedicated gas-phase distillation hitting parts-per-billion purity specs. HBr touches every layer of the AI hardware stack: → GPU & CPU logic wafers → GaAs and InP photonics components ($COHR $MRVL) → Advanced packaging substrates While everyone fights over $NVDA allocations, almost nobody owns the molecule that makes the chips possible. $ICL doesn't sell directly to Samsung or $TSMC. ICL is a Tier 2 supplier to every major fab on Earth. And here's the kicker, those are already running at full capacity. Every single customer committed. No slack in the system. One disruption cascades instantly. Bromine isn't even ICL's only semiconductor input. ICL also produces ultra-high purity phosphoric acid, used in chip manufacturing, photovoltaic panels, and flat panel displays. Two critical semiconductor inputs. The market is pricing neither of them. $ICL today: → Revenue: $7.15B → EBITDA: $1.49B → Bromine segment EBITDA margin: >35% → Forward PE: 14x → Price: ~$5.20 → ATH: ~$12 (-57% drawdown) → FCF yield: ~4.75% → Dividend: ~2% → DOE grant: $197M for US battery plant Only profitable major bromine producer in the world. Trading at a fraction of what the AI picks and shovels crowd pays for $AMAT or $KLAC. $NVDA: $3 trillion market cap. Global AI capex announced: $500B+ per year. Big Tech spending on data centers: accelerating every single quarter. Every single one of those dollars eventually needs memory. Every single memory chip needs bromine to exist. The entire global bromine market? $3 billion. A $3,000,000,000 market is the invisible chokepoint of a $3,000,000,000,000 company. 1000x leverage on the most critical input nobody is talking about. And the company that controls 38% of it? Trading at $5. Not $500. Not $50. FIVE dollars. While institutions pour billions into $NVDA, $AMAT, $TSM, the molecule that makes all of it possible is sitting there underpriced. Is there something I'm missing ?
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@Posacc Un mal día lo tiene cualquiera 😅 A veces se gana y a veces se aprende… podría seguir con las frases pero… ánimo!
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SP
SP@Posacc·
Me mató Donaldo!
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@Ben_Brunier It is going really bad :( Any insight why? Thanks!
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Benjamin Brunier
Benjamin Brunier@Ben_Brunier·
#Worldine $WLN est en train de me titiller. Je regarde même pas le graphique, il y a UNE seule information récente à retenir pour miser sur la recovery. x10 loin d'être impossible.
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@mrloldev Happy bday! What was this time?
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SP
SP@Posacc·
Lindo dia para mi, no por el monto sino por la tendencia positiva, siempre ha sido mi mayor dificultad y la estoy logrando.
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Benjamin Brunier
Benjamin Brunier@Ben_Brunier·
It's exactly how I blew up my first accounts.
Casper@casper_smc

Most traders think they trade to make money. They don't. They trade because their 9-5 is boring and the chart is the most exciting thing in their life. They trade because being right about a move feels better than almost anything. They trade because risk makes them feel alive in a world that's otherwise completely predictable. None of that is wrong. But if you don't know that about yourself, you're going to keep bleeding money and not understand why. The guy who trades out of boredom takes setups that aren't there. The guy who needs to be right holds losers way too long. The guy chasing a high sizes up and blows his account. Same pattern. Different costume. The fix isn't a new strategy. It's a harder question: why are you actually here? Not the answer you'd give your wife or your friends. The real one. Because once you name it, you can build around it. You want action? Build a strategy with plenty of entries inside a system that won't let you self-destruct. You want to prove you're smart? Stop using your P&L as the scorecard and start using a process you can actually measure. The traders who blow up aren't stupid. They're running a strategy built for someone they're pretending to be. Figure out who you actually are first. The strategy comes after. The real commitment that nobody talks about is designing your life so the bad trade can't happen in the first place. Not being disciplined on the charts. Eliminating the need for discipline on the charts. Here's what I mean. The most dangerous trade you'll ever take isn't a bad setup. It's the one you take because you're sitting at your desk with nothing to do and the market is open. The real pre-commitment isn't a rule about what to do at the screen. It's not being at the screen. The best traders I've seen don't have 8 hour screen days. They have a 1 hour window. Before that, they're doing something else entirely. After it closes, they're gone. Not because they're “disciplined”. Because they built a life that doesn't leave a hole for the market to fill. If your entire day revolves around the chart, the chart becomes your emotional regulator. You're not trading at that point. You're self-medicating. And no rule set survives when the thing you're trying to control is also the thing keeping you sane. There is no “getting better at trading” when you’re getting worse at living. The pre-commitment isn't "I'll only take three trades." It's "I have something at 11am that I care about more than the market." If you don't have that, you'll never stop overtrading. Because overtrading was never the problem. The empty calendar was. Go to the gym, spend time reading, building yourself into a better human being and stop hyper fixating on trading. The second thing, and this is the one that actually separates professionals from everyone else …is that real pre-commitment means accepting dead time as part of the job. Retail traders feel like they're failing when they're not in a position. Professionals know the money is made in the waiting. But you can't white-knuckle your way through waiting. You have to actually be okay with it. And you'll never be okay with it if trading is the only thing giving your life texture. That's the actual edge. Not a “rule” or writing your strategy down on a Notion document for the 10th time. A LIFE that doesn't need the market to mean something.

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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@davey_juice We can agree to disagree then. I follow you for investing curiosity. Nevertheless, I studied History and lived in Spain, again, Spanish people in their majority, don’t hate USA neither America
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@Posacc Siempre con covered calls? O algo de daytrading?
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SP
SP@Posacc·
Otros pesitos hacia el final del día! Arriba de 100 es una victoria!
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dacap
dacap@dacap·
@ReaderESP @goyix_salduero Es cierto que el coste de vida alli es salvaje (yo mismo rechace una oferta alli hace años). Pero para ser realistas/objetivos hablamos de un sueldo aprox de 5’5k al mes y un piso de 1hab en Sydney sale por 2’5k. La tasa de ahorro pese al coste de vida aun sale positivo
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Reader
Reader@ReaderESP·
@goyix_salduero @Elena742023 Siento joderos el sueño australiano, pero 94.000 esta POR DEBAJO del sueldo promedio en Sydney. El coste de vida alli es SALVAJE. Eso si, pueden hacer el paleto de “ir unos años a aprender ingles” que han hecho taaantos y tantos expats. Animo, dortores, a hacer maletas.
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