dacap
799 posts


@dacap Hey, I do ! I'm accumulating on another account. It will be long to flip but I'm long term here so..
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@SayNoToTrading @cazelty @DDBlakeFischer @Ibs31290479 @griffonomics I think many more, even if “we” don’t comment often. Personally I prefer to always talk only when adding value, making an exception now 🤗
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Haven't mentioned Ryan Specialty $RYAN in a while because every time I write about it, only a couple people chime in with useful content. One of them is @griffonomics and he did an episode on it, which I recommend: youtu.be/iVcFllDHbNg
Prior to launching Ryan Specialty, Patrick Ryan founded $AON and served as its Chairman and CEO for 41 years.
Ryan is a leading wholesale brokerage and specialty lines insurer known for its substantial footprint in the E&S market. The fill the gap between retail insurance brokers and E&S carriers for complex or hard-to-place commercial risks. AI can't disrupt this if you understand it.
Most interesting tidbit? He is using his own personal $RYAN stock to incentivize talent. Not diluting more but offering up his own. That's a legit CEO right there.
Price is still very low. Barely above the IPO from 5 years ago, despite the growth since. Financials from Gurufocus.

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No es lo mismo invertir un dinero que no te importaría perder y que no necesitas para nada que un dinero que si lo haga.
El conocimiento es la base, pero el verdadero potencial se desata cuando de verdad sientes que te da igual lo que pueda pasar con ese dinero porque no tienes ninguna necesidad ni compromiso derivada de él ni en el presente ni en el futuro.
Es en ese momento cuando uno pierde toda la presión mental que pudiera tener y trata las cosas de la forma más fría y racional posible, tal y como son.
Es lo que marca la diferencia entre invertir a largo plazo y multiplicar por muchas veces de tomar malas decisiones de compra y venta porque “te da miedo de que caiga si lo tienes o de que suba si no”.
Llegar a ese punto es un privilegio.
Elon Musk ha arriesgado toda su vida como lo ha hecho porque ya tenia todo lo que podía necesitar o desear asegurado de por vida previamente gracias a un éxito inicial.
El rico se hace más rico porque no tiene presión por tomar riesgos y acertar en situaciones donde la asimetría riesgo- beneficio juega a su favor y sabe que puede ejecutar con las posibilidades de su lado por loco que parezca al inicio.
Lo mismo ocurre en la inversión en renta variable o private equity cuando uno apunta alto y es ambicioso.
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@Ben_Brunier As another user mentions, concession expires in 2030. Bromine is only 17% of $ICL income and total market for bromine is between 2B to 3’2B, therefore, there’s upside but quite limited apparently. Thanks for sharing!
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Spent Sunday analyzing the most overlooked mineral in the AI supply chain.
Not lithium. Not cobalt. Not copper. Bromine.
And one company controls 38% of global supply.
$ICL extracts bromine from the dead sea, the most concentrated bromine source on earth at 4,500–5,000 ppm.
This is a geological moat. No competitor can replicate it.
38% of global capacity. 280,000 tonnes/year.
$ALB and $LXS are the only other meaningful players. Both currently loss-making.
Most people know bromine from high school chemistry. A reddish-brown liquid.
But in its purified industrial form, it becomes something else entirely.
It becomes the chemical razor that carves transistors into silicon.
Raw bromine → reacted with hydrogen → becomes HBr gas → injected into plasma etching chambers → selectively removes atomic layers of silicon with nanometer precision
No other chemistry is approved across every major fab on earth.
Bromine → semiconductor-grade HBr gas → plasma etching → DRAM & NAND transistor structures
Every Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron memory chip on Earth is etched using hydrogen bromide.
No bromine → no memory → no AI servers. Full stop.
The two bromine supply chains, industrial and semiconductor-grade, diverge permanently at conversion.
Flame retardant bromine cannot be reconverted into fab-grade HBr. The purification requires dedicated gas-phase distillation hitting parts-per-billion purity specs.
HBr touches every layer of the AI hardware stack:
→ GPU & CPU logic wafers
→ GaAs and InP photonics components ($COHR $MRVL)
→ Advanced packaging substrates
While everyone fights over $NVDA allocations, almost nobody owns the molecule that makes the chips possible.
$ICL doesn't sell directly to Samsung or $TSMC.
ICL is a Tier 2 supplier to every major fab on Earth.
And here's the kicker, those are already running at full capacity. Every single customer committed. No slack in the system.
One disruption cascades instantly.
Bromine isn't even ICL's only semiconductor input.
ICL also produces ultra-high purity phosphoric acid, used in chip manufacturing, photovoltaic panels, and flat panel displays.
Two critical semiconductor inputs.
The market is pricing neither of them.
$ICL today:
→ Revenue: $7.15B
→ EBITDA: $1.49B
→ Bromine segment EBITDA margin: >35%
→ Forward PE: 14x
→ Price: ~$5.20
→ ATH: ~$12 (-57% drawdown)
→ FCF yield: ~4.75%
→ Dividend: ~2%
→ DOE grant: $197M for US battery plant
Only profitable major bromine producer in the world. Trading at a fraction of what the AI picks and shovels crowd pays for $AMAT or $KLAC.
$NVDA: $3 trillion market cap.
Global AI capex announced: $500B+ per year.
Big Tech spending on data centers: accelerating every single quarter.
Every single one of those dollars eventually needs memory.
Every single memory chip needs bromine to exist.
The entire global bromine market?
$3 billion.
A $3,000,000,000 market is the invisible chokepoint of a $3,000,000,000,000 company.
1000x leverage on the most critical input nobody is talking about.
And the company that controls 38% of it? Trading at $5. Not $500. Not $50. FIVE dollars.
While institutions pour billions into $NVDA, $AMAT, $TSM, the molecule that makes all of it possible is sitting there underpriced.
Is there something I'm missing ?
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#Worldine $WLN est en train de me titiller.
Je regarde même pas le graphique, il y a UNE seule information récente à retenir pour miser sur la recovery.
x10 loin d'être impossible.
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First day as 19 yo was doing a Hackathon and pivoting with less than half the time and coding until 4am the next day for a 30mins nap
We didn't win but we had fun
Leonardo@mrloldev
I missed the train to airport by 1 minute Now I am arriving with 1 hour to switch terminals go through security and get in the gate 2nd day as a 19 yo is fun, I am going to practice all my running
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@davey_juice We can agree to disagree then. I follow you for investing curiosity. Nevertheless, I studied History and lived in Spain, again, Spanish people in their majority, don’t hate USA neither America
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@dacap People from spain hate us and always have
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Other than the Muslims, the spainish were the biggest conquerors in modern history
They can get off their moral high horse when we defend the people of Iran
Clash Report@clashreport
BREAKING: Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez to Trump: We are not going to be accomplices to something that is bad for the world and that is also contrary to our values and interests, simply because of the fear of reprisals from some. We have absolute confidence in the economic, institutional and I would also say moral strength of our country.
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@dacap @goyix_salduero 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Sois un puto meme.
Pakis del sur de europa
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@ReaderESP @goyix_salduero Es cierto que el coste de vida alli es salvaje (yo mismo rechace una oferta alli hace años). Pero para ser realistas/objetivos hablamos de un sueldo aprox de 5’5k al mes y un piso de 1hab en Sydney sale por 2’5k. La tasa de ahorro pese al coste de vida aun sale positivo
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@goyix_salduero @Elena742023 Siento joderos el sueño australiano, pero 94.000 esta POR DEBAJO del sueldo promedio en Sydney. El coste de vida alli es SALVAJE.
Eso si, pueden hacer el paleto de “ir unos años a aprender ingles” que han hecho taaantos y tantos expats.
Animo, dortores, a hacer maletas.
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