damian

$BTC Took a swing long with size in anticipation of a breakout. Target 1 is ATH Alright, stopped out of shorts, the only short we took this entire time. All good, it was half size and a playful move. Most importantly was to get out quick and set a clear SL in case price rips. Stopped out now, and you know what that means. Because the overall high timeframe plan is bullish, because we have been bullish ever since calling the very day of the bottom, and because we have been longing since, and finally, because the sentiment tells us the majority isn't ready to take a long in general, let alone a breakout like this, it's time to continue to play our bull market masterplan, of a $BTC led breakout first, and then, alt season. Starting with the $BTC led move, that is a breakout to new ATH. So I longed here, with stoploss below strong POI's which should not be broken if this is a breakout which I indeed believe it will turn into. The next POI if revisit that should hold is the upper purple POI in the high 80's. Note how this trade may take time, as we did plan the breakout to happen in June, and it also seems like a late long. So we may have some pullbacks. But I will hold this stubbornly until either invalidation or target. On top, I will still continue to take lower timeframe longs as well, this is a swing/positional long. So yes, this may feel like an unusual trade, and that's how breakout longs should feel like. But since we spent a very long time researching the bottom, called it, and now see everything we want to see for a move up, this is the play for me personally. So again, we may pull back locally. But in my book of risk management, missing a trade almost has the same implications as losing a few times in a row and so waiting for a pullback could be a mistake here. Hence why I am aggressive and longing with size here. We will see how it plays out, but this is my move, shared for transparency and educational purposes. Good luck if you trade along.

$BTC macro update The low held ✅ The window is open Alright, quick high timeframe update. But none the less, a very important high timeframe update as our high timeframe plan is continuing to play out and looking better and better every week. With the summer nearing, that breakout plan expected later this year is coming to fruition. Because at the time of posting, the world was against us when we called the bottom rather early (on March 11th) based on the chart below. Yes that was the very day of the first low and indeed, it has been swept. But you know my approach, of how I like to be early, and adopt the right bias as early as possible. Hence why we stopped going from mostly shorts and shifted to mostly longs and looking at buying spot again, ever since that day, now resulting in a back-to-back win, followed by a loss, followed by a three win streak since then on top of a comfortable distance from the time of flipping bullish and getting back in spot. And so the massive disbulief back at 77k, naturally results in a large and consensus 'surprise effect' when the market suddenly pumps now. I think that surprise effect is getting more evident and evident after every pump. Doesn't mean this is the breakout right here, right now. But it means the bull posting and massive spot accumulating, as well as holding the right bias without changing at any point, is paying off for us, and that green arrow will make bears being bearish at the bottom regret that for another full cycle of 24-32 weeks i.e., a very long time. So with not only the nature of this price action but also the general consensus and 'the surprise effect' of every pump from now on, that increases confidence in the fact this call is going to work out and we should indeed expect ATH and indeed expect that this cycle hasn't topped, which has big implications not to be underestimated. I mentioned I may finally take a short above 88k, and I still plan on doing that with some confirmation and a live call whenever the setup is ready. But this is and remains a countertrend trade, so please let that mid timeframe trade not confuse you with this high timeframe bias, and the main idea remains to stay bullish and expect new ATH's and remain positioned for that, as I have been saying over and over and over ever since March 11th. So yes, if a short triggers and I give the live call, that is my entry. But that is within the context of a high timeframe bullish bias, i.e., that is just a short in the sea of many longs, and that also means I am not selling any spot, as ATH is indeed coming and this idea, on top of all analysis prior, is holding. And that is very nice to see. We are all in crypto to make money by mostly holding in the 2023-2025 + 4 *x rotation years (and only mostly shorting the market in the 2026 + 4x, with x = 0, 1, 2, 3 ... rotation), growing the asset class over the years and providing large positional trades both ways. Always shaped by high timeframe analysis and the big picture, just like this one. Keeping that in mind, every trade we take.

Our high is swept✅, I'm bullish high timeframe, but I'm short here per plan (quarter of normal size), second entry around 90k during NYO today or Tomorrow Alright, we waited long enough and let our plan fully develop. We closed a long just slightly below these prices and are at a big point of resistance with all details laid out of both why 88.7k would likely be visited, but also why it has a chance to reject. Keep in mind that this is a countertrend move, and that I am high timeframe bullish and absolutely loving this move. But one short attempt doesn't hurt and the RR has shaped up here so despite the lower hit rate this type of trade has, it's worth it for me to exert a small punt. I will be holding quarter size all the way through and semi stubbornly up to limited invalidation of 95k (hard stop), soft invalidation just over 90k. This is an early entry, and so it can trade higher before reversal, so I will add another quarter size on today's NYO, or if price slows, on Tomorrows NYO. If either of NYO's are too strong, or if both are wrong, at that point, I will be looking for an early breakout positional long for fresh ATH's and beyond. But until then, this is the only short I would take so here is the punt. Enjoy and go easy on this one.

$BTC 88k reached ✅, short plan updated: still holding off on the short, riding spot bags up for now. Alright, nice, 88k reached and so we come near our first big area of interest again ever since we called the bottom. Now before you start spamming the short button, I personally am not short yet and approaching this one conservatively as mentioned (but feel free, this is just NFA...). Reasons are mentioned before and simple, repeated here: my overall bias is bullish ever since hitting 77k on March 11th, and so the main focus is longs, with more aggression and frequency than shorts as you know. Also still seeing a lot of disbullief and 'caution' upon this price rise, which is not great for bears, great for us, not great for the short (yet). It's also past 10 am New York time which is not a time to be expecting a reversal either generally. There are also no large sell walls and CVD aggression is also still rather whale green - retail red. Finally, now that we reached the 88k area we wanted to see, I can specify now that I would want the 88.7 k level swept before pulling the trigger. Once all that happened, Some local distribution and whales at least giving up or at the very least pushing price into their own asks on causing CVD divs on Binance is what I would want to see for a local reversal back to the lower 80's. We do have the weekly open below as a first magnet, and if this does turn out to be a deviation, that would require a close back inside the range on the backbone of a bearish weekly candle, which means Tuesday or Wednesday, price would have to reverse. So seeing signs of a fake pump on Tuesday or Wednesday would be ideal which is what I am looking for in conjunction of the painted scenario above 88.7 k. As long as there are no signs on that occurring, shorting here is blind for me and I would rather ride up our spot bags in conjunction with our bull market master plan of calling yet another major low recently, very close to the actual event. If I miss it, all good, I'll gladly long the midrange area with aggression and size, as we have been doing with our longs, scoring three wins in a row so far again. With that, I have given the plan for a short indeed with a cautious tone and some additional conditions before pulling the trigger. So we'll see if they get fulfilled. Do not worry, I will call out live when I take the short as always. No vagueness, no fake entries, only real and live time calls. Enjoy the update. Questions below.

$BTC.D and alt season update + an alt season plan Our sweep is coming, once it's done, alt season is set up Time for an update on $BTC.D, still, slowly drifting up for just over 2.5 years now. In the 3-1 (4) year cycle format, that is still within the normal and expected timeframes of $BTC.D uptrends. Admittedly, the wait is getting excruciating at this point, but can't stress enough how 'the longer the wait, the stronger the move' holds here. 'Patience pays' Patience pays indeed, we know that, a four yearly reversal takes time, and so timing the micro top effectively is challenging based on time and high timeframe POI's alone, as, while $BTC.D slowly rises, alts bleed a lot harder, especially if they are only short term one-hit wonder type altcoins. That is why we have been focusing heavily on $BTC and $BTC only, trading up our accounts to accumulate as much capital, before a clear pivot in focus on altcoins. We had a warm-up of that during October and November but had to put it on hold based on analysis at the time, but as for any warm-up, there is a main exercise. So with this post, just a reminder that I am looking to pivot at the right time, as, unlike the $BTC maxis, I do think alts are worth catching, where the biggest gains are had (as a consequence of the longest wait, very clear now), and so they are a useful tool to boost capital if played correctly. In short, the risk is well worth the reward. So to do that effectively, with this post, I attempt an analysis on 'when alt season' as well an actual plan on how to play it. The latter is important yet funnily enough, with a lack of posts involved on this platform. Analysis Analysis comes first, and not much changed from last post, where we said '65% area is the top, but expect a sweep'. We're now seeing that sweep. But other than that, we still are in the exact POI we want to see a reversal, as well as, if the sweep occurs, at a cyclical time of 38 months deep into the cycle, pushing it far, but still a typical point for reversal. Also still at the 0.66 fib level retracement, and some important high timeframe key levels on the quarterly and monthly timeframes, i.e., powerful timeframes. Once that has taken place, I simply want to see a monthly close of both April and May below the Feb wick high. That completes the setup for alt season. How that sweep occurs and what direction $BTC takes on at the time, I am not sure yet. But ideally, it would be a $BTC led move as $BTC.D makes its final push, which continues the typical 2017 playbook we have been exploiting all of 2023 and 2024 so far. Targets remain time based (month 48-50), but with the length of the wait, likely a sweep of the entire range. So hopes for sub 40% are realistic, although a good conservative target is 45%. Plan So most importantly, how to play this? Firstly, I personally play spot only on alts and only after a confirmed trend (typically, $BTC led with a final $BTC.D squeeze, as mentioned), put in sizeable longs, the most logical approach. It already takes a lot of research and energy to both find the right type of coins let alone analyze all charts in detail. So spot is the most key to play right because if spot fails there is no 'bonus' to playing leverage IMO. To plan for spot, it makes sense to look how altcoins this cycle are doing, before expecting what they will continue to do, especially true for top 100 coins over 3 or 4 years old (not talking about altcoin trenches here, that would take a long post to write and I don't spam PnD's). Use that move of October/November last year, and extend the trend down from the expected sweep and that gives some projections to which alts to choose. If the alts you like have put in 50% move at that time (of $BTC.D going from 61.5% to 55%), that means they likely put in another 50% move from where they are now once $BTC.D reaches the 1-to-1 extension (currently at 58.27%), and a 100% move at 51.66% If an alt you have your eye on did a 100% move in October, then that would mean another 100% move from current price and a 200% move respectively when $BTC.D reaches 51.66%. With this type of targeting, you know what to expect when placing your bets. Which helps to project what risk you tolerate. Because smaller coins often put in bigger moves, bigger coins, smaller moves. But smaller coins carry the risk of bleeding more until the top on $BTC.D is in, which is the risk and reward in catching alt season. So combined with some basic fundamentals (does the team have an active github, is the fanbase and project established and is there a narrative to push price harder?), using this risk/reward as a baseline to see which coins will skewed away from the risk side and more towards the reward side and compare it to October/November, is to me an effective way to select the right bags, even if the timing isn't perfect. Aside from that tactic, based on your own risk parameters, it also makes sense to select either bigger coins or smaller. Typically (but not always), with more capital, it makes sense to avoid risk (look at the coins who bled the least during this bear market), and lower capital, typically means looking at the reward side more than the risk side (bleeding bags hurt less in absolute terms over big capital), thus typically position in smaller coins (top 100-300). Summary So with this post, I have not only given a reason why it's worth to position for alt season, but also roughly told you when, and how to position (NFA), which is more important than just some lines on a chart to maximize reward and minimize risk, as both are very prominent for altcoins. Enjoy.

$BTC longs 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐨𝐩𝐞𝐧 𝐡𝐢𝐭 ✅ 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞✅, 𝐛𝐢𝐠 𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞 Price trading higher after longing the exact bottom in live time, in the midst of a timeline of max bear celebration once again. 'The celebration of just a sweep lower' Because indeed all they had to celebrate for ended up just a fake-out below the March low before instantly reversing. Funny to see because they get no chance to flip or enter as the bounce is high before even giving a retest. Good for us, we longed at a time when the candle going down not even moved up a single hair, a complete knife catch. Yet the trade so far results into nearly zero drawdown and a 5% move back up in hours, probably one of the cleanest longs we had in a long time. Thank you $BTC, second TP here (Another 25%), right at weekly open which was one of our targets. That also completes the reclaim, and yet again puts that initial schock to everyone waiting for 70, 65 or even 60k that it likely does not happen as per our htf thesis, price suddenly reversing right before it each and every time, great for long entries and a good pay. It's a kind of magic.

$BTC Lows taken out ✅, took initial long here Alright, we are below the low now. I know I said I would wait for Monday's close. But weekly open above is stretching far and lows are taken out with a large burst of liquidations + all analysis given prior still valid. We also hit our -1 sdev target of our hash ribbon analysis, and Q4 2024 high coming up. Could end up being front run as we often see so happy to start the long here. This is an aggressive long in anticipation of the low being reclaimed. But I mentioned why I think it will reclaim and thus being in position makes it easier to manage the trade later on. Added bonus is that this probably freshens up the timeline for you as I don't see anyone calling trades here in a situation that might very well be the most interesting prices for a long time. This is also a half size bet of what I usually take, to be able to manage the way through. If this long turns a loss, that's also with big repercussions for the rest of the cycle. So it's a last long standing, one I have to take in my book.

$BTC And now, the chance $BTC has bottomed is 94.44% on a wick basis, and 100% on a candle closing basis Alright, here we are, another data analysis, confirming our bottom call at the very day of the exact bottom (11th of March, see quoted tweet). For the ones who just found out about me or just tuned back in to crypto, this is one of the (many) conformations of the bottom we called very early on at 79.8k before most of these signals even triggered. The call, then perceived as a 'knife catch', has now had major traders doubt their bearish bias, influencing hundreds of thousands of people, the wrong way, as there are many out there. And there still are many out there, along with the sentiment of the public, and in the midst of another classic signal which always seems to flash at the right time. One I value highly and have learnt to exploit correctly in confluence with other secrets over the years and make a lot of surplus gains on compared to the 'just holders', especially date Today. So here, another signal arrived, supporting my bullish bias, and why I will continue to look for longs only, a strategy we adopted since hitting 77k. Not to gain a one sided bias, but just to represent the data as is as there are no data sets even coming close in terms of significance to signifying a breakdown of this local range to the downside (the bear case) over a breakout to the upside (the bull case). But as always feel free to come up with them and counter my argument. The logic behind the hash ribbons, I have explained before (just search my name and hash ribbons on X). But in short: each time a cross up happens, a blue buy signal flashes. This comes from an increase of the hash rate after a steep drop i.e. a compromise of the networks hash rate, which means the weakest (Pareto's principle in Economics) mining businesses shutting down/getting liquidated in a corporate way, or lowering electric power. That corporate capitulation creates a low. And in a world of sharks, where weak companies exit, stronger ones (new or already existing) see opportunity, and take over the spot, rising the hash rate i.e. The confirmation of the low, a blue buy signal. Yes, I said the word 'miners'. Not sure why no one ever talks about miners anymore, or why the fundamentalists tracking them are mocked so often. They are still important whether you want it or not. As simple math explains: 6 blocks mined/hour (on average). Which means per month, 622,080 BTC are provided into the hands of the miners, which is more than Saylor's (our biggest holder) entire stack still to this day (about 500,000 BTC at the time of writing this post). That also explains why $BTC sometimes feels like it is in lockstep with the stock market (shares dropping, mining companies rotating assets), and other days, it 'decouples' (due to the miners drive). Not going in depth here, but the numbers above explain enough, as well as a simple check to what most of the cold storage does and where it comes from. The data So that's great logic, not many people know or like to share. But what does the data say ? Well, the bears won't like this one, as on a wick basis, 17 out of 18 signals worked, and price never returning, until a new ATH (or never) after a drawdown of 10.7% on average and a standard deviation of 11.1%, The only time it failed was due to the covid wick. On a closing basis, it worked every time so far (covid weekly candle closed up high, bought up by miners), with price never ever returning, until ATH (or never) after a drawdown of on average only 5.28%, sdev of 7.79%. So, that is powerful data, from a very significant (the most significant) capitalistic power source on the $BTC price. Summary And so that confirms the low we called on the very day of the low (March 11th), rather early and before anyone else did mainstream, once more. And many of those (certainly the majority) is still either calling for lower, or protecting themselves with 'only going long after a reclaim, be careful guys' with no live call ever, only wins to share after price goes up (the Houdini trader). I'm happy to share live data, along with live calls upon them, without a paywall, and with a premise to take you in the direction of making you money over a showboat mentality and promoting a bad private group (standards are higher, as necessary in my honest opinion). I have quite a lot more of these analyses ready. But this one is easy to interpret and understand. Enjoy.