dancser

2022 was the longest year of my life with so many ups, downs and life-changing events that I feel like a completely different person than just a year ago. Ending on a high but there were many things to cope with this year…

@Moneytaur_ @readwise save

📖 Biases you need to avoid if you want to succeed in the investing game, and how to mitigate them 🔹 Confirmation Bias: Tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms one's preexisting beliefs. In investing, this can lead to focusing only on information that supports your investment decisions and ignoring information that contradicts them. Especially in cryptos, this will likely REKT your portfolio. 🔹 Herd Mentality: This bias is the tendency to follow and copy what other investors are doing. If they're bearish, you turn bearish. If they're bullish, you turn bullish. Or at least, you will be extremely confused, enter analysis-paralysis, and rarely come up with the best investment decision. 🔹 Anchoring Bias: This bias occurs when investors base their decisions on irrelevant figures and data. For example, an investor might hold onto a losing coin because they're anchored to the price they originally paid for it. Set realistic targets, and account for your decision to potentially be a failed investment. If it is, cut your loss before it reaches -90%. Fail and learn, fail better, and you'll eventually start achieving better results. 🔹 Loss Aversion: This bias refers to the tendency to strongly prefer avoiding losses over acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are twice as powerful, psychologically, as gains. This can lead to poor investment decisions, such as holding onto losing investments for too long in the hope they will rebound, and with how speculative cryptos are...that's usually the worst decision one can make. Here is where fundamentals matter, and coins that have been in the market for several years aren't to be ignored. If herd consensus is that X coin is "dead", it might be something just temporary (not permanent) Avoiding these biases can help an investor make more rational decisions, thus ending up with better results. However, completely eliminating these biases is nearly impossible because they are deeply ingrained in our psychological makeup. We can mitigate these biases. 🔹 Confirmation bias: Seek information that contradicts your beliefs. This helps to challenge and test your assumptions. 🔹 Herd Mentality: Stick to your investment plan. Don't get swayed by market hysteria and irrational behavior of others. CT is mostly a brainless space. 🔹 Anchoring Bias: Focus on the intrinsic value of investments, not just the price you paid for them. If you bought at a quite higher price, it means you've accepted to play the game, so you should DCA and reach the best average price possible on your investment. Notice how much harder it is to buy when the market is down Vs when is up? That's why most people buy at very high prices, and panic sell, or at least not buy more at much lower prices. Keep in mind that 95% of all cryptos are useless and sooner or later they will lose -99.99% of their value. Play the mid-term swings and convert the profits in established stocks & cryptos. 🔹 Loss Aversion: Understand that losses are a part of investing. Make sure to assess investments objectively, even if they've lost value. There's millions of people out there playing the game all wrong. They are paying their money into the pockets of the few thousand people who play it right. This will not change.

@cryptowriter Here. Yes, you were right and I was wrong, gg. Also, only one of us called the other f-ing clowns and whined about in multiple tweets, while being on high horse about “the state of CT”.

Where are the fucking crowns who were trashing me for being cautious and not super bullish?

@cryptowriter So after capitulating at the exact bottom, you reckon to buy back over 94k? 😅 Solid advice

@ARafayGadit @zignaly @Crypto_Ed_NL the maestro of my bag 💰

It’s been an year since I took over the Master of Coin role for $ZIG at @zignaly Tag the person who introduced you to $ZIG and you think has supported the most! 🤝 The most (legit) recommended one will get a 1,000,000 $ZIG gift personally from me ❤️

@cryptowriter But if you’d want out, can’t you just hedge short your token amount while it unstakes?

If you're in $woo remember that unstaking takes 7 days. You can pay 5% fee to unstake instantly but you will lose your yearly rewards this way. Keep that in mind. Not the time to be staking anything that cannot be pulled out instantly.

New Give Away! Just like the previous one: no complicated rules, paid out of my own pocket. 1 lucky, randomly selected winner, will receive $200 in $WOO tokens. If you are smart and signed up to @_WOO_X with my ref link, I'll double the reward! 1) like and retweet this post 2) follow me here on X. Winner will be selected Friday 25th October. My give away, my rules.

@Sina_21st @crossbordercap @Readwiseio save tweet

Key points from the interview with Michael Howell from @crossbordercap. 1- Global liquidity (GL) is the main force driving asset prices 2- GL is increasing by 8-10% 3- Different asset classes respond differently to GL 4- For every $ in GL Gold gains $1.5 in value 5- MOST AMAZINGLY for every $ in GL #Bitcoin gains $4.5 in value. Three times more sensitivity to GL than gold. The giant elephant in the room is liquidity. And the fastest liquidity horse is Bitcoin

Cigarette sales and lung cancer deaths are the same curve, shifted 25 years.

@buccocapital @Readwiseio save thread

1. I’ve been lucky to work with some incredible people throughout my career I’ve randomly posted the great advice they’ve shared, but thought it was worth consolidating them all Maybe some folks will find these helpful. I certainly have…

@mastersinvest @Readwiseio save

Fourteen of my favorite quotes which I've tried to internalize from Daniel Kahneman: "Nothing is as important as we think it is while we are thinking about it." “Declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.” “If you choose to delude yourself by accepting extreme predictions, however, you will do well to remain aware of your self-indulgence." “The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined everyday by the ease with which the past is explained.” “We’re blind to our blindness. We have very little idea of how little we know. We’re not designed to know how little we know.”  “People who have information about an individual case rarely feel the need to know the statistics of the class to which the case belongs.” “For some of our most important beliefs we have no evidence at all, except that people we love and trust hold these beliefs. Considering how little we know, the confidence we have in our beliefs is preposterous - and it is also essential.” “The brains of humans and other animals contain a mechanism that is designed to give priority to bad news.” “A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.” “People who face very bad options take desperate gambles, accepting a high probability of making things worse in exchange for a small hope of avoiding a large loss. Risk taking of this kind often turns manageable failures into disasters.” “Organizations that take the word of overconfident experts can expect costly consequences … however, optimism is highly valued, socially and in the market; people and firms reward the providers of dangerously misleading information more than they reward truth tellers.” “A general limitation of the human mind is its imperfect ability to reconstruct past states of knowledge, or beliefs that have changed. Once you adopt a new view of the world (or of any part of it), you immediately lose much of your ability to recall what you used to believe before your mind changed.” “Loss aversion - When directly compared or weighted against each other, losses look larger than gains. This asymmetry between the power of positive and negative expectations or experiences has an evolutionary history. Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive and reproduce.” "Neither the quantity nor the quality of the evidence counts for much in subjective confidence. The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little. We often fail to allow for the possibility that evidence that should be critical to our judgment is missing—what we see is all there is." RIP Daniel Kahneman

GIVE AWAY In a couple of days, I'll be active in Crypto for 10 years. Quite a ride 😅 Doing something back: will give away 1,000USDT on 11-03-2024. The 1k will be divided into 4 lucky winners. All you have to do is follow me and retweet this.

@oldbooksguy @readwise save

10 concepts that explain the modern world 1. Parkinson’s Law: Companies become bigger and worse over time. Clerks manufacture work for each other as overall capacity dips. When British Navy ships went down from 68 to 20, officials increased by 78%. 2. Chesterton Fence: If you don’t know what an old custom does, don’t touch it. It may be holding back problems you’re completely unaware of. You’ve not seen the wolves yet because of the very fence you’re about to demolish. 3. The Medici Effect: Sculptors, painters, and architects converged in Florence as the Medicis were funding the artists. Their proximity led to a fertile dialogue which, in turn, led to the Renaissance. The internet will amplify this cross-pollination of ideas. 4. The Centipede's Dilemma: Ask a centipede which one of its hundred legs moves the fastest and it forgets how to move. Reflecting on what we normally do without thought ironically worsens performance. A culture of endless self-reflection, therapy, and navel gazing is eroding important life skills. 5. Tyranny of small decisions: Individuals make small decisions to maximize convenience but this leads to massive social failure. We nod along to contagious ideas like “gender is fluid” because resisting them is too much work - till kids start getting transgender surgery. The slippery slope is not a fallacy but a fundamental reality. 6. The Zebra Effect explains why people don’t want to stand out. Zebras are hard to individually study as it's nearly impossible to track one of them for long (lost in the striped chaos). So scientists once put a big red dot on one zebra so he could be tracked & studied. Lions zeroed in on him and hunted him with ease. Getting lost among others is a survival mechanism. Hence the human desire to conform. 7. Why the ruler can’t rule: The executive head can’t implement his ideas on ground because the bureaucrats are closer to it, and have an agenda of their own. The Tzar of Russia had to deal with the Deep State too. Nicholas II: “I never ruled Russia. 10,000 clerks ruled Russia.” 8. Gall's law: A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. Only fools and modern technocrats try to create complex systems from scratch. 9. Minimal Self Hypothesis: Narcissism is a “strategic retreat” into the safety of one’s own self. When the future looks random, inexplicable, and informationally overwhelming, people enter survival mode. The self becomes “minimal” to reduce its surface area to pain. People today are giving up on commitment of all sorts to conserve energy for vague and upcoming disasters. 10. Tetris Syndrome: The world will eventually start looking like Tetris blocks if you play the game too much. What we do most often becomes the metaphor through which we look at the world. Takeaway: Most people today are addicted to their 2D phones - and this will hurt the general aptitude for dealing with the 3D world.

@ThHappyHawaiian 2.76

If anyone wants a free TradingView premium, put your guess for the nat gas close this week

𝗔𝘁 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀, 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗲 𝗼𝗯𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗴𝗴𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗰𝗼𝗽𝗲, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗶𝗴𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁. Check in on those around you. #WorldMentalHealthDay | #YouAreNotAlone | @samaritans

@notyaraforyou nothing? 🤨🧐

nothing brings me joy and satisfaction like applying my skin care routine

@notyaraforyou Literally any European capital in rush hour 🤷‍♂️

name something worse than business bay during rush hour

Whoever thinks the first step towards clean energy is abandoning nuclear is a f***ing retard. I might be a man of strong opinions, but I’m so right on this. Have fun with your coal!

IMF in a nutshell…

As a European, I’ll never really get the second amendment anyways, but it’s nice to see these a**holes getting fed into a woodchopper lol

SA is the 7th richest African country (out of 54, based on GDP PPP)…puts 1st world problems into perspective 🧐