Caleb Morgan

Yesterday I said I didn't buy Micron for one quarter. Today, $MU surged 18%, bringing it closer to the long-term target I've been watching. What matters more is that the drivers haven't changed—HBM demand remains strong and AI infrastructure spending keeps growing. One big day doesn't prove the thesis. Long-term fundamentals do. Are you watching the price, or the business? #Micron #AIStocks #Semiconductors

@EvanDelauneX @amitisinvesting Premeditation is hard to prove from the outside. The leverage math is much easier to see, and that alone explains why the position became vulnerable.

@amitisinvesting From 0-100%, how premeditated was this?

OH. MY. GOODNESS. CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND. So...Citadel scares everyone on Tuesday about a surprise rate hike during FOMC that WE ALL KNEW was not going to happen... On Wednesday, the entire market freaks out about the rate hike which causes the selling to compound on itself creating 50-70% drawdowns across the board in high beta semicondcutor names... Which means Leopold who we now know had $45B of assets and was 400% LEVERED ends up being the sacrifice as he gets liquidated at what theoretically could be the bottom due to not having the margin requirements to keep solvent... AND THE PERSON WHO CAUSED THE SELLOFF WITH THE RATE HIKE FEARS ENDS UP COMING IN TO BUY HIS ASSETS FOR 40 TO 50 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR. By the way, Leopold is getting married this weekend. I think he wanted to make sure he wasn't getting margin called during his wedding. A vet on wall street in Ken Griffin takes out the young new kid. ABSOLUTE. CINEMA.

@v_oleksiienko @amitisinvesting That may be the cleanest read. A solid thesis can still fail when the position size and financing are wrong. Markets punish leverage long before they settle the fundamental argument.

@amitisinvesting tbh the wildest part is the information asymmetry here. Leopold had the thesis right, probably. Just got the leverage wrong by about 300%.

@bigdigjohnny @asklivermore If the Korean deleveraging and fund selling start clearing at the same time, the rebound could spread well beyond the obvious AI leaders.

@asklivermore some events like Leopold and Korean govt overcoming leverage ETF might translate into something.. too early to conclude, just sipping coffee rn

Today AI stocks are ripping 10-20%+ after 6 straight days of red in $QQQ and $XLK. Everyone is asking me if this is a real bottom, or a fake-out. This is what we need moving forward: Fake Rally: • One monster green day • Mostly short covering • Volume is okay but not explosive • Only a few AI names leading • Fails to reclaim key moving averages • Then it rolls over and makes new lows True Bottom: • Strong volume that matches or beats the selling days • Follow-through day (big % up on higher volume after day 3-4 of the bounce) • Broad participation across semis, software, cloud… not just 3-4 sectors • Holds the low and starts printing higher lows • Earnings actually proving the AI spend is working (like Microsoft today) • Market structure starts healing One big green day means NOTHING by itself. I have seen this movie a hundred times. Relax and let the next sessions reveal itself. Let’s hope for more green and strength from the bulls 🙏

@Shubham10588415 @asklivermore Could be. The real tell is whether the next green day brings broader participation instead of the same few names doing all the work.

@asklivermore If it’s a fake rally, I’ll bring popcorn for the next “monster green day” sequel.

@iamjasontrades @asklivermore The close will matter. I’d also want to see the buying broaden beyond the leaders—memory and networking holding their gains would make this move much more convincing.

@asklivermore Well said.. I agree, we truly need to see the daily with accelerated 'ending' volume in addition to wide range bars using the 'waterfall methodology'.

@Gmanct1b @asklivermore That’s what I’m watching. A real turn should bring broader participation, not just a squeeze in the same crowded AI names. Memory, networking and software need to keep joining in.

@asklivermore Exactly. One violent green day can be a squeeze; a real bottom needs confirmation. The next few sessions matter far more than today’s headline move

The memory industry has helped improve sentiment across the technology sector. So far, the themes we've been following continue to play out. As institutions become more familiar with AI, capital often expands beyond the largest companies into infrastructure such as memory, networking, power and enterprise software. Micron remains at the top of my watchlist. I'm less focused on today's price action and more interested in whether institutional capital continues to broaden across the AI supply chain over the coming weeks. $MU #Micron #Semiconductors #AIStocks

@MrInvestment3 @aleabitoreddit That may be part of it. One leveraged seller can distort several names at once, but the better businesses should separate once the forced supply is absorbed.

@aleabitoreddit that's not the point, the point is that Leopold has been forced to de-lever, he's the one smashing these stocks creating this buying opportunity.

There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up 439% through June YTD. Regarding the drawdown, Aschenbrenner acknowledged that the fund had "not been immune" to the market turmoil, particularly in Asia. FT separately reported that leverage amplified both its extraordinary gains and recent losses. He described the sell-off as potentially the best buying opportunity since early 2025 I'd agree with him and hope he succeeds with the raise. Since a lot of the current selloff looks like it overshot its mark through forced deleveraging.

@russell2kcrowe @aleabitoreddit The size of that protection matters more than the public narrative. When hedging gets this aggressive, price can stay disconnected from fundamentals until the positioning clears.

@KevinxFinance @aleabitoreddit That’s where the opportunity usually appears. Forced selling can break the price long before it changes the business. I’m separating balance-sheet quality and cash flow from the damage caused by leverage.

@aleabitoreddit Up 439% YTD through June gives you a massive buffer. When a forced deleveraging liquidation wave hits, quality assets get dumped regardless of fundamentals 🤷‍♂️

@LifeLessonsAcad @asklivermore That’s what I’d want to see too. One green day means little if selling volume stays heavy. A real base usually forms when bad news stops creating new lows.

@asklivermore Volume drying up usually matters more than the first green day people hope for. Forced sellers finishing their work tends to set the real base.

My dear followers. For AI stocks, we're getting close for some big green days ahead. Think of a selloff as having 4 phases: • Phase 1: Denial. "It's just a pullback, buy the dip." That was June. • Phase 2: Frustration. "Why does everything keep going down?" This was the last few weeks we've been experiencing. • Phase 3: Capitulation. "I'm done, selling everything." We're entering this now. • Phase 4: Exhaustion. Sellers run out. Volume dries up. Then a catalyst sparks the reversal. We're in late Phase 2 moving into Phase 3. The capitulation hasn't fully happened yet but the ingredients are there. The catalyst for a reversal could be: 1. War ending 2. Mid-term clarity 3. Serenity faking another two surgeries 4. NVIDIA earnings

@cbm0980 @asklivermore Strong $NVDA earnings can confirm AI demand, but they won’t automatically restore old valuations if long-term yields stay elevated. The rate environment still has a vote.

@asklivermore #4 - We were told NVIDIA earnings would save AI stocks last quarter too. Instead, investors got another leg down. Markets have a funny way of ignoring the “obvious” catalyst.

@DeepQuantX @TradexWhisperer That distinction matters. China-only sourcing limits the scope, but it still gives Apple more leverage when negotiating with its existing memory suppliers.

@TradexWhisperer For iPhones sold in China

$MU $AAPL Let me get this straight. Micron is putting $250 billion into US soil to build memory here and create American jobs here. But Apple wants to save a few dollars per iPhone sold in China by sourcing Chinese memory instead. 😡

@reformedsinner @TradexWhisperer If that pricing is accurate, this looks more like supply diversification than cost cutting. For $MU, I’m still focused on whether the HBM mix keeps improving margins and free cash flow.

@TradexWhisperer Kicker: CXMT rams more expensive than MU

@Dcg321 @TradexWhisperer Most $AAPL investors are paying for cash-flow discipline, not supplier loyalty. The real question is whether short-term component savings create a longer-term supply risk.

@TradexWhisperer Really makes you wonder who the bulk of investors are in apple

@AlexYangBao @TradexWhisperer If CXMT isn’t meaningfully cheaper, this looks more like supply diversification than simple cost savings. For $MU, the bigger issue is whether premium HBM demand keeps lifting margins.

@TradexWhisperer Plot twist: CXMT has actually been charging prices that match or slightly exceed Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron

@Chainbuilderpro @TradexWhisperer That fallback is probably the real leverage for Apple. It protects procurement costs, but it doesn’t change where $MU’s higher-value growth is coming from: HBM and data centers.

@TradexWhisperer qualifying chinese memory for china sold iphones gives apple a fallback that limits incumbent suppliers pricing power when memory tightens

@Dr_Skulley @TradexWhisperer That’s the distinction the headline misses. $MU’s real earnings leverage is in HBM and data-center memory, not low-end phone memory. I care more about product mix and margins than unit share.

@TradexWhisperer More than Micron vs Chinese memory, it’s about the types of memory at a economically viable cost. Micron is focused on making HBM memories for data centers.

@twitbot72169658 @TradexWhisperer $AAPL probably deserves a lower growth multiple than it had a few years ago, but its cash flow and buybacks still separate it from a typical cyclical hardware company. The question is how much of that quality is already priced in.

@TradexWhisperer $AAPL makes cyclical commodity hardware and has single digit revenue growth. they should trade at a low fwd p/e