Daniel Piedrahita

Mark Bertolini, CEO de $OSCAR, compró $11.92M de su bolsillo. Única compra insider en 12 meses. En entrevista pública dio el modelo: $19B revenue al 5% de margen en 2027. Eso equivale entre 45$ y 55$. Hoy cotiza a 21$. Tesis completa en mi newsletter. danipiedrahita.substack.com

@TrendSpider Stocks ignoring a 5% bond

Describe the 2026 stock market in 5 words or less:

@TheLongInvest AMD hit $76 in April 2025, dumped with the sector. Near $504 now. The boring trade was buying it when nobody wanted chips

$AMD +135% YTD +356% over 12 months. Long term investing does not need to be boring.

@himshouse The ‘first buy in years’ matters more than the amount. Still, a director putting in $1.2M is the soft end of it The strongest signal is when someone running the company bets his own money on targets he’s promised publicly. This is a step, not that

🚨 $HIMS INSIDER BUY Director David B. Wells bought 48.4k shares ($1.2 million) today at $24.235 average Wells was previously CFO at Netflix He now owns 224k shares after the purchase THE FIRST OPEN-MARKET INSIDER BUY IN YEARS!!!

@TheLongInvest Agree and you can put numbers on hot. 30-year at 5.2% top 10 at 40% of the S&P CPI back to 3.8%. Records on the screen, the opposite on the curve

None of what is happening right now in the market is standard It’s getting very hot

@BullTheoryio The dot-com comp cuts both ways. Top 10 was ~27% in 2000, we're at 40% now. Worse on paper. But those names had no earnings. Today's top 10% throws off 60% of the index's profits. Doesn't make it safe. Just means what breaks it is a bad earnings season, not a profitless collapse.

EVERY MAJOR STOCK INDEX FUND IS ACTUALLY JUST A HYPER-CONCENTRATED BET ON AI. Nvidia alone commands 8% of the S&P 500. The top 10 holdings represent over 40% of the entire index. The Information Technology sector accounts for 34.6% of the S&P 500, the highest concentration in history. This is not just a US problem. TSMC is 42% of Taiwan's entire stock market. Samsung and SK Hynix together are 42.2% of South Korea's KOSPI, an all-time high. That concentration has nearly doubled from 22.6% just 18 months ago. ASML is capped at 15% of the Netherlands simply because it became too dominant. Every major economy that touches semiconductors has become a single stock bet dressed up as a national index. If you think you are diversified because you own an S&P 500 ETF, you are not. You own a concentrated AI trade with 500 company labels on it. When this trade turns, there is nowhere to hide inside any of these indexes. Every country, every fund, every retirement account is exposed to the same single theme.

@Kalshi Reads as a crypto bet, it's a macro one. BTC down 11% this year, six days of ETF outflows, 30-year at 5.2%. The stuff with no cash flow gets hit first. That 60% is about the curve, not $BTC

JUST IN: 60% chance Bitcoin falls below $60,000

@marcvidal De acuerdo, y un matiz que te da más razón: el paper de la Fed es preliminar, pero ahí mismo llaman a Kalshi mercado regulado por la CFTC. Regulado allí, juego de azar aquí

Kalshi no es una casa de apuestas. Es un mercado regulado por la CFTC desde 2020, con 52.000 millones en contratos cerrados y una valoración de 22.000 millones de dólares. La Reserva Federal lo utiliza para medir expectativas macroeconómicas de alta frecuencia. CNN tiene una colaboración oficial con ellos. Y no es lo mismo que Polymarket, que tiene una estructura muy distinta. En EEUU, la Reserva Federal publica un informe académico validando Kalshi como indicador macroeconómico en tiempo real para los policy makers. En España, el ministerio de consumo le abre expediente sancionador y bloquea su web y lo metemos en el mismo cajón que el bingo online y le cortamos el acceso. _ El problema no es que operen sin licencia española, eso tiene solución administrativa. El problema es que los que deciden qué es juego y qué es información de mercado no comprenden la diferencia entre las dos cosas.

@unusual_whales Cisco wasn’t fraud. Real gear, real customers, demand that never came. Down 78% from peak. Burry’s bet is the buyers, not Nvidia

Michael Burry has said: "I stand by my analysis. I am not claiming Nvidia is Enron. It is clearly Cisco."

@RoundtableSpace That’s not a valuation, it’s a leveraged bet on a crypto exchange. Nobody’s buying SpaceX there. The IPO target is $1.75T. These traders are paying 40% over what Musk himself is asking.

SpaceX $SPCX is trading at a $2.45T valuation on hyperliquid.

@NoLimitGains Biggest IPO ever, landing with the market at record highs and the 30-year bond over 5%. Companies go public when valuations are good for the seller, not the buyer.

Holy shit. This is absolutely insane.

Hoy la bolsa US está cerrada. Memorial Day. NYSE y Nasdaq no abren, el mercado de bonos tampoco. Todo vuelve mañana martes. Pero el viernes pasó algo que conviene mirar antes de que arranque la semana. El S&P cerró en 7.473. Máximo histórico. Octava semana verde seguida. Y al mismo tiempo, el bono a 30 años cerró por encima del 5%, después de tocar el 5,2% la semana pasada, máximo desde 2007. Esa es la foto: acciones en récord, coste de financiar al Tesoro a 30 años en niveles que no se veían desde antes de la crisis financiera. Las dos cosas no suelen convivir mucho tiempo. Una de las dos se está equivocando. Lo que trae la semana: Martes reabre el mercado con tres días de noticias acumuladas. Volumen bajo tras festivo suele exagerar los movimientos, ojo a la primera hora. Jueves: segunda revisión del GDP del primer trimestre y paro semanal. Viernes es el día. Sale el PCE de abril, la medida de inflación que de verdad mira la Fed. Con el CPI ya en el 3,8% y el petróleo todavía alto pese a la caída de hoy por las noticias de acuerdo con Irán, cualquier sorpresa al alza en el PCE le complica todavía más la vida a Warsh, que acaba de entrar y al que el mercado da por hecho que va a recortar. La curva larga no se lo cree. El viernes es uno de los datos que puede empezar a resolver quién tiene razón. Atento también a que es fin de mes: suele haber reajuste de carteras de fondos, lo que añade ruido a las últimas sesiones. Semana corta, pero con el dato que más le importa a la Fed al final. No es para tomar posiciones a ciegas. Es para saber qué estás mirando cuando llegue.

@unusual_whales They didn’t cut it for being bad. They cut it because devs preferred it over their own Copilot. That’s not a win for $MSFT

Microsoft, $MSFT, has started canceling Claude Code licenses, per the Verge

@theRealKiyosaki The part worth tracking is the pace. Yuan’s been stuck near 2% of reserves for years despite deals like this. The real question isn’t if, it’s how fast.

@theRealKiyosaki Petrodollar’s been dying in headlines since 2000. Dollar’s still 57% of reserves. Funeral keeps getting postponed.

WORSE THAN WAR in IRAN Death of the US Dollar? Iran began accepting payment for oil in Chinese Yuan. What does that mean to you and your future and the future of the US dollar? I strongly encourage you to invest about and hour in your financial education. I strongly suggest you tune into Ray Dalio’s podcast “Iran just killed the petro dollar.” This is the biggest news in world financial history and no one is explaing it save for Ray Dalio. Ray keeps it simple and offers concrete actions almost anyone can take to not become a victim of this massive change and crisis in money. Please do not hesitate to tune into the wisdom Ray Dalio offers, wisdom very few will tune into. Remember your best investment is your investment into your financial education….education our schools will never cover. Take care.

El inversor medio no pierde dinero en las caídas. Lo pierde esperando a que pase el miedo para volver a entrar. Los mejores días del mercado y los peores viven pegados. Si te sales en uno, te pierdes el otro. Estar fuera "hasta que se aclare" sale más caro que aguantar la caída.

@BullTheoryio Those three crashes had three different causes: valuation, mortgage credit, Fed hike speed. CPI at 3.8% didn’t cause any of them. Picking the level they happened to share isn’t a pattern.

The last 3 major market crashes all coincided with CPI crossing above 3.8%. Dot-com: −49%. Financial crisis: −57%. 2022 rate hike selloff: −25%. CPI is approaching that level again and S&P is sitting near all time highs.

@RobinhoodApp My screen time report is 80% one app and it’s not Instagram.

Tell me you invest without telling me you invest.

@saylor @Strategy “Bought bonds, not bitcoin” three weeks after saying on the Q1 call you’d probably sell some to fund the dividend. Same playbook. Harder to run with BTC sitting right at your cost basis.

This week we bought bonds, not bitcoin. The ₿itVac is charging.

@WatcherGuru Markets stopped trading the headline weeks ago. This stays shut until it doesn’t, everyone knows it. The move now isn’t in the strait, it’s in whatever breaks first because of it. Energy, the Fed, or shipping.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz blockade will remain in full force until an agreement with Iran is signed.