Ilan Goldenberg

It’s now been 4 years since I gave my dad a kidney and we are still doing great. If you have a loved one in need, take the time to learn the facts about kidney donation. If you need a transplant, don’t be afraid to ask. I hope this article helps. vox.com/future-perfect…

“AIPAC really is not an organization that I think today I would want any part of.”

7% of Americans support ground operations in Iran. Let me repeat that. 7%. You can’t do anything with 7% support, let alone taking the very serious step of putting American troops in harms way.

Pro-Israel movement deciding to go all-in to stop this guy is real 2010s thinking. They're going to need to carve out space for liberal pro-Israel/anti-war voices to have any hope of containing further left. At this rate, they'll wish they had more Dan Biss types soon.

QatarEnergy CEO says the Iranian attack overnight damaged ~17% of its LNG production capacity, and it would take 3-5 years to repair the damage. reuters.com/business/energ…

In this article I breakdown some of the things I’ve learned gaming out war scenarios between the US and Iran over the past 15 years. One thing I did not game out though was a highly unpredictable and erratic US President. It increases the likelihood of escalation and will make it harder to end a war that is harming everyone’s interests at this point. open.substack.com/pub/zeteo/p/i-…

Yesterday's J Street Substack with @JStreetdotorg's @JeremyBenAmi and @ilangoldenberg - Speaking with @DanielBiss including re @AIPAC "and our political team breaks down AIPAC’s reckless strategy" jstreetdotorg.substack.com/p/icymi-daniel…

This is probably the most important article of the month: an op-ed by Oman's Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between the U.S. and Iran, in which he writes that the U.S. "has lost control of its foreign policy" to Israel. He repeats that a deal was possible as an outcome of the talks (something confirmed by the UK's National Security Advisor, who also attended: x.com/i/status/20341…) and that the military strike by the U.S. and Israel was "a shock." Interestingly, given he is one of Iran's neighbors and given that Oman has been struck multiple times by Iran since the war began (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran…), he writes that "Iran’s retaliation against what it claims are American targets on the territory of its neighbours was an inevitable result" of the U.S.-Israeli attack. He describes it as "probably the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership." He says the war "endangers" the region's entire "economic model in which global sport, tourism, aviation and technology were to play an important role." He adds that "if this had not been anticipated by the architects of this war, that was surely a grave miscalculation." But, he adds, the "greatest miscalculation" of all for the U.S. "was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place." In his view this was the doing of "Israel’s leadership" who "persuaded America that Iran had been so weakened by sanctions, internal divisions and the American-Israeli bombings of its nuclear sites last June, that an unconditional surrender would swiftly follow the initial assault and the assassination of the supreme leader." Obviously, this proved completely wrong, and the U.S. is now in a quagmire. He says that, given this, "America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth," which is that "there are two parties to this war who have nothing to gain from it," namely "Iran and America." He says that all of the U.S. interests in the region (end to nuclear proliferation, secure energy supply chains, investment opportunities) are "best achieved with Iran at peace." As he writes, "this is an uncomfortable truth to tell, because it involves indicating the extent to which America has lost control of its own foreign policy. But it must be told." He then proposes a couple of paths to get back to the negotiating table, although he recognizes how difficult it would be for Iran "to return to dialogue with an administration that twice switched abruptly from talks to bombing and assassination." That's perhaps the most profound damage Trump did during this entire episode: the complete discrediting of diplomacy. If Iran was taught anything, it is: don't negotiate with the U.S., it's a trap that will literally kill you. The great irony of the man who sold himself as a dealmaker is that he taught the world one thing: don't make deals with my country. Link to the article: economist.com/by-invitation/…

Trump’s first supplemental for Iran looks set to be more than all the supplementals for Ukraine in the Biden administration.

“Escalating to deescalate” is something you hear a lot in strategic and military circles. Has a nice ring to it. It also almost never works. Escalation tend to lead to….escalation.

WATCH: Daniel Biss delivers his victory speech to cheers in the room, making an unapologetic statement for his commitment to the dignity and equality of Palestinians and Israelis. THIS is why we’re so proud to support @DanielBiss 👇

QatarEnergy Statement on Missile Attacks on Ras Laffan Industrial City QatarEnergy confirms that Ras Laffan Industrial City this evening has been the subject of missile attacks. Emergency response teams were deployed immediately to contain the resulting fires, as extensive damage has been caused. All personnel have been accounted for and no casualties have been reported at this time. QatarEnergy will continue to communicate the latest available information. #Qatar

“I Wargamed Iran for Obama. This Is the Worst-Case Scenario” Absolute must-read on the 5 lessons from wargaming that former US official ⁦@ilangoldenberg⁩ learned that Trump hasn’t. zeteo.com/p/i-wargamed-i…

Join @DanielBiss today at 4 pm EDT on Word on the Street LIVE. @ilangoldenberg and I will talk about his win in the Illinois 9 Democratic primary, AIPAC, Israel/Palestine and more - and of course the politics of all these issues in 2026. open.substack.com/live-stream/13…

National Security and Foreign Policy expert AND Sr. VP at J Street, @IlanGoldenberg has a theory as to why Trump decided to start his war of choice. And why he didn't have to. More on the Pod. Now on YouTube with captions. bit.ly/Click-2-Listen YouTu.be/hSqU8dKUQgw

We're now getting into the tail-end scenarios that usually only merit a sentence at the end of a paper, they're so unlikely and disastrous.

Iran said US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure, per state TV reported. Oil and petrochemical facilities in nearby Asaluyeh also came under attack, it added. An attack, if confirmed, would mark the first time Iran’s upstream oil and gas facilities have been targeted in this war. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Cope.

AIPAC annoyed Dems again after the races were called; it took credit for the super PACs (which it wouldn’t during campaign) and said the races proved that being pro-Israel was good politics (not a single super PAC ad mentioned Israel, which is now a loser in Dem campaigns).

Thank you to everyone who has been a part of this amazing journey. This is a district of fighters, a district of believers, a district of progressive Democrats who know that we can never back down from Donald Trump and his MAGA cronies.

Congratulations to Daniel Biss on his IL-09 win! 🎉 A strong voice for diplomacy, democracy and the equal rights of Israelis and Palestinians – proving these values resonate with voters. We are proud to support leaders like him.