zeroedge

@tleilax___ Nice cta rep

Selling begets selling, now the asymetry is to the downside. Positions entered above $5k are underwater by 10%, so susceptible to trimming.

dr.dk/nyheder/indlan… Epic

@CompoundinGirl Cooked

Look at those $BABA growth rates

@BrianTycangco Disaster

Alibaba $BABA 3QFY26 Results: ➡️Revenue +2% to $40.7B ❌ ➡️Non-GAAP EPS $1.01 ❌ Highlights: ➡️Excluding disposed biz, revenue +9% YoY ➡️China E-Commerce rev grew 6% to $22.8b✅ ➡️AI + Cloud rev grew 36% to $6.2b✅ ➡️AIDC rev grew 4% to $5.6b❌ ➡️Qwen surpassed 1bn downloads as of 1/21/26 ➡️Qwen app 300m MAUs as of February ➡️Adjusted EBITDA fell 57% to $3.3B primarly due to key investments ➡️Free cash flow fell 71% to $1.6 billion for the same reasons Outlook: ➡️AI + Cloud growth were above expectations. With recent price hikes (5% to 34%) for AI computing and storage, this will be the main focus for the rest of the year. ➡️Intense competition in China's e-commerce market will keep segment EBITDA margins weak. Need to see stabilization of margins to sustain a healthy FCF level in light of investments. ➡️International e-commerce EBITDA margins improved drastically. But weak revenue growth is a concern. Impact of global events may weigh on consumption in Alibaba's key overseas markets.

@Merridew__ Things take time and sequencing is important

@tallnfat @simon_ree @tallnfat are you just the dumbest permabull fuck on X?

@simon_ree Waking up sounds bearish. Go back to sleep and be bullish…better yet buy stocks!!

Some random thoughts: The market is finally doing what it should have been doing for weeks. Waking up 🧵

Saudi Ministry of Defense now confirming that 1) ballistic missiles we’re launched at the port of Yanbu (intercepted) 2) a drone has “fallen” on an oil refinery in Yanbu Knew the lack of denial was weird. Really not great that Iran is turning its attention to the Red Sea.

I can’t really see the scenario where stocks don’t go lower in the near term. Maybe that’s s bull case? Market has been so desperate for a taco people have been making their own and forgot that in an actual war both sides have to agree to end it (or one has to surrender). They’re going to figure that out eventually. The Fed’s cutting cycle is on its way to being completely priced out. 2 weeks ago, SOFR Z7 was 75bps lower than March 2026. Now it’s down to 25bps and IOR is comfortably above 2yr (meaning reserve managers are not buying the dip on the expectation the cutting cycle continues). If NFP is strong, it’ll wreck rates (at a time when financing has become increasingly important for the largest companies in the world) while if it’s weak I don’t think equities respond positively either. And this all is coming at a time when AI is maybe not good enough to convince companies to replace workers with machines while business goes along as usual, but certainly is good enough to have companies attempt to use it for roles they had to cut because of economic pressure and potentially find out they don’t need to hire that role back. It’s one thing to see some bearish scenarios and brush them off as priced in, that’s been a good strategy (most years have drawdowns of 10-15% routinely). But SPX is ~5% off all time highs…

@Edark94 It was such a bad take from someone who thinks too highly of himself

This is my quant Unfortunately he blocked me for posting lmfao under his tweet within 1 minute, so he is clearly having a good day

In 2022, it was the sharp repricing of policy and forward interest rates, combined with the deceleration in earnings (particularly pandemic beneficiaries) that caused the decline in stocks Yesterday Powell took cuts off the table Next step could be hikes - not good for stocks

@Seniorstrategen Bullish of what exactly?

Why have i turned bullish here after 4 months of caution and bearish posts. Because the things i look at tells me that market makers and big institutions have been accumulating big time and absorbing sellers at levels inconsistant with bear market action and panic. I don’t turn bullish because I think I know something I follow the wisdom of the big operators.

this is what an “air pocket” in cash flows looks like say goodbye to buy backs for a couple yrs campbellramble.ai/p/the-air-pock…

@JoumannaTV As a share of total LNG imports, Pakistan, India, Singapore, Taiwan and China most exposed!!!

BAM BAM BAM Molecular Contagion - This thing going intercontinental, - This is just Physics - This is physical supply chain - You can’t print molecules - Paper market disconnected from Physical

@tylermacro10 Might just take time

Doesn’t affect me, but genuinely baffling how high the market is AI I suppose

@aleabitoreddit Why are you so afraid to show the path?

Year to Date return from Jan to March: +564.36%. I’m speed running last year’s 600%+ returns by finding undiscovered AI bottlenecks. And picking the winners. - 500%+ unrealized gains on $AXTI. - $AAOI 3x’d in 3M or $IQE 2x in 1M. - $LITE close to 100%+. And I expect large capital rotation into silicon photonics + CPO names: Like $SOI, $AEHR, or $SIVE this year. (They’re up close to ~70-100%, but have a long way to go) Then, this is compounded by misc longs, such as $CRCL that increased 148% in 1 month. $NBIS that close to doubled from $70 back to $120. $EWY IV trade is up 50-70% and names like $XLU are up 50%+. My biggest loser YTD is $RDDT since my cost average was $148. Some of the misc picks like $INFQ, $VPG, $AVAV, $LPTH are not doing as well. But as I’ve mentioned aside from Reddit (which I had high concentration in), a lot of my other picks I’m not as familiar with, I have less concentration in: But all my higher conviction picks like $TSEM have been strongly compounded recently. And what matters is I get more things right than wrong, especially in my higher concentration names. Majority of my YTD returns are actually unrealized since I don’t exit my longs, unless there’s material changes: But I did realize a lot of gains at the beginning of the year post Venezuela conflict, as I identified some winners like Gold Reserve that doubled in a day. Sadly I did sell some Asian names like Nittobo or Macronix that both went up 100-200%+ to rotate capital around the time of the Iran conflict… those ended up going a lot higher afterwards. I swing trade a lot of misc names like in fintech or write CSP on the side. Hence why I’m able to compound to 500%+. While individual names are only up 100-200% (just keep doubling + rotating). But if you want to ride the next trend: Most obvious one is Photonics Supercycle if you just look at $AAOI earnings call or $LITE Nvidia GTC call for next few years. And the current one is the Memory Supercycle if you just look at $SNDK returns. And as you’ve seen after my original $AXTI thesis or now Soitec: These names keep going in a vertical line up, as everyone suddenly now realizes its importance to the next paradigm shift for AI. My strategy is identifying structural bottlenecks in the AI supply chains before the market discovers them.

Indonesia faces fuel fears as half its population travels for Eid ft.trib.al/4sv4DyL

@TheFlowHorse That's what makes a market

The oil craziness over the last week made something that was already obvious even more egregious. Fintwit and CT are something else. Countless grown adults who have traded and invested successfully for their entire careers, being told daily by anonymous accounts that they have no idea what they are doing. Pros criticized by people who have been trading for eighteen months. That is not a typo. Imagine Derek Jeter getting lectured on hitting by a kid who just made JV.

Powell reiterates that the Fed "worries a lot" about inflation expectations becoming unanchored due to the multiple shocks over the last 5 years.

@orrdavid @ferderser Why are you looking at the wrong contracts

@ferderser A supposed major escalation, in some ways a real one, hardly up. If the damage was severe, this would have gone up a lot.

The big energy risk was Iran causing extreme damage to neighboring country's infrastructure. This damage would be long term rather than a temporary (and likely over soon) blockade. Iran tried the attack but it pretty much failed to cause that serious of damage. The number of missiles launched was low, and the damage they caused is a lot less than I would have guessed a month ago. Unless there is follow through soon, I'm going to call it. That this conflict is over. That Iran is out of steam. Also, that Iran did this further alienates them from their neighbors.