DataGaffer

We’ve officially launched our new NEC Index. ✅ No paywall (FREE) ✅ 327 teams ranked ✅ Updated every matchday Named after 🇳🇱 NEC Nijmegen — one of the most enjoyable, attack-driven teams in Europe — this rating measures a team’s true offensive identity and scoring environment. NEC blends: • Shot volume • Goal production • High-total match tendencies • Real betting performance (Over & team total history) Find teams for FREE —-> datagaffer.com

📊 International slate Win Outlook (10,000 simulations each) Big favorites: • Italy 70.8% • Czech Republic 61.9% • Poland 58.3% • Slovakia 57.4% • Türkiye 55.6% Toss-ups: • Brazil vs France → 38.5% / 38.3% • Colombia vs Croatia → 36.0% / 39.4% Model → datagaffer.com

📊 Raw Ratings (pure team stats — no schedule or boosts) These are baseline profiles of how teams performed in the WC Qualifiers. Key takeaway 👇 🇨🇿 Czech Rep vs Ireland 🇮🇹 Italy vs Northern Ireland 🇸🇰 Slovakia vs Kosovo → Clear gaps in home vs away strength This is exactly why context adjustments matter — raw ratings highlight the true statistical gap before matchup modifiers. 📌 ORtg = Offensive Rating 📌 DRtg = Defensive Rating 📌 DGR = Overall Team Rating Model —> datagaffer.com

🚨 DataGaffer Nation Ratings — Top 10 Our model ranks the strongest national teams in world football right now 👇 1.Spain 🇪🇸 (100) 2.Portugal 🇵🇹 (98.5) 3.France 🇫🇷 (97.0) 4.Argentina 🇦🇷 (95.5) 5.England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿(94.0) Thoughts?

📊 Carabao Cup Final Simulation (10,000 runs) Arsenal vs Man City — dead even on paper 👀 ⚖️ xG: 1.43 – 1.37 📊 Total Goals: 2.80 🤝 BTTS: 1.65 (favored) 📈 Best value spots: • Over 2.5 goals • BTTS Yes • Man City o1.5 goals 🎯 Player edge: • Haaland 41% to score • Saka 25% assists leader This sets up as a tight, high-level final

Heerenveen have a 75th+ percentile pace rating… NEC Nijmegen have played 17 matches vs teams with 75+ pace … BTTS hit in all 17 (100%) 🔥

@DawsonrWallace Lean towards New England but nothing stands out.

@datagaffer What do you think about today’s New England revolution game

Teams that will win tomorrow: 🇮🇹 Como 🇫🇷 Rennes 🇪🇸 Barcelona 🇵🇹 Sporting 🇺🇸 San Diego Who’s stopping us here from going 100% again ?

@Emeks_P So then who’s playing Orlando right now

@datagaffer Nashville plays on the 5th of April

5 down 1 more to go! ✅✅✅ Will Nashville get it done ? Leave a Comment and follow to get tomorrow’s winners 👇

@AntunezGustavo San Diego offensive efficiency: 99th percentile Salt Lake offensive efficiency: 13th percentile + under 50 for defense.

@datagaffer San Diego. Dont mix Europe with America

@migas_fcp Tbh there my least confident here.

@datagaffer hopefully sporting ahaha

@IngeTore1 @beyinbeystat The best value bet is right above it in the full outlook

@datagaffer @beyinbeystat Cool! It'd be neat to color them based on value

📊 Everton vs Chelsea — Quick Outlook Most likely score: 1-1 (11.7%) But after that it leans Chelsea: • 1-2 (9.8%) • 0-2 (8.8%) • 0-1 (8.4%) Chelsea still project as the stronger side — even with recent form. Model —> datagaffer.com Layout Idea by @beyinbeystat

@jpThuku Our raw ratings show clear advantages. We shall see

@datagaffer Vikings Nashville Shaky AF

Teams that will win tomorrow ⬇️ 🇩🇪 Bayern Munich 🇺🇸 Nashville SC 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Rangers 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Hearts 🇵🇹 Benfica 🇳🇴 Viking Thoughts ?

H2H Goal Trends Today 📊 2 matchups are 100% across the board (O2.5 / BTTS): • Sheffield Utd vs Wrexham • PEC Zwolle vs NAC Breda While QPR vs Portsmouth have hit BTTS in all 3 of there h2h matchups The small sample size is something to consider but you can’t ignore 100%.

@MrMaosa Yes

@datagaffer Viking is doing badly of late.

@Mark_K14 We will see. The data says they score against high pace teams 🤷‍♂️

@datagaffer berlin not scoring

Some BTTS insights for tomorrow 🔎 🇩🇪 Union Berlin vs Bayern Union vs high-tempo teams (75th+ pace rating): 8/8 BTTS (100%) 🇪🇸 Elche vs Mallorca Elche vs teams with 60%+ O2.5 rates: 9/9 BTTS (100%) 🇳🇱 Sittard vs Twente Sittard vs high-press teams (75th+ PPDA): 6/6 BTTS (100%)