David Albrecht

An entire generation (Milennial / Z) has spent their working lives in a zero-rate world. Any surprise so many ended up in PE, banking, real estate, low/no-profit startups (Uber, WeWork)? We're "ZIRPers" -- products of our time. Higher rates = huge shift.

@jasonfried Moving? Arizona / CA / FL / ?

"Your subfloor is toast" - GC Under a sink in Homewood, IL

@cluesdotlife Get a Life House

@JackDan66096166 @shawngorham This is the right model. Nobody's suggesting a doctor / dentist is poor. The sale is just the cherry on top of year after year of great earnings.

@shawngorham You mean, in addition to the $1M earned for each year you owned it, right?

Imagine your life’s work is worth $1.5mm when it’s all said and done… Demolition Companies (in CA) are nearly worthless I know this business I know their clients and equipment It’s a great business and the numbers are accurate BUT Nobody wants to buy it I can tell you this company made more off the real estate their business sits on than the sale price of the business 2 thoughts: 1. Always buy the real estate your business operates out of 2. Demolition companies rarely sale Bonus: imaging working for 15+ years, 12 hour days and you get $1.5mm minus fees for your life’s work I love demolition - but if you want to build a business you can get an exit on… this is the wrong industry

You're selling an expensive thing. The proper baseline assumption: "it's like selling a house". - Long process (months/years) - Expensive (agents, diligence) - May never close - Fraud risk NYSE/Nasdaq: billions transacted daily with ~0 of above issues. A modern miracle.

@jackmurphylive @fortworthchris @TakeWeightOffMD Great and needed perspective. I do believe buildings change more slowly than politics, though. I live in SF, and as much as I want to "escape" the excesses of progressives and their ideas, the built environments of Tempe, Houston, etc can't be the last word.

@fortworthchris @TakeWeightOffMD I’m still scarred from growing up in Washington DC where former class A space on K St sat boarded up and vacant for decades. Or maybe I just have proper perspective. My guess is blue urban real estate becomes totally undesirable and rots empty until politics change.

Transformers (GPT, etc) are best thought of as a new computing architecture -- a new "type" of computer. Two impt points. (1) They are not procedural machines that can run spreadsheets, or add. and (2) They're going to require entirely new chips to run.

@moseskagan Think the concept of "normal" in finance is problematic. Every day is a new adventure: debt ceiling crises, sovereign defaults, QT, wars/invasions, idiots crashing planes into buildings, high inflation, etc. A never-ending human story of turning the knobs, and seeing what happens

Do not create a business model which depends for its success on the debt market functioning normally at any specific moment in time.

@torysheffer @shawngorham Trends that can't continue forever make me nervous. Perhaps irrationally so, because time scales can be long (50-100+ years). At some point, people just say hell with this (CA), and move. When do we hit that point? Does it exist?

@torysheffer @shawngorham Serious q (live in CA, grew up in IL): "the So Cal home appreciates at a faster pace than anything he buys here". Does this have a limit? Or is the theory that rich will keep getting richer (a good bet) and always prefer CA real estate, driving prices to infinity?

Hive Mind: My friend took a job in Michigan Hes from So Cal (yes hes going to freeze) He owns a beautiful home in So Cal Its worth $1.3 Loan is $650k @ 2.625% All in its $3800 a mo with property taxes Rent is over $5000 Not much savings I think he should rent the house out Problem: He needs money from his house to buy a house in Michigan Obviously with rates at 8% he wants to put a huge downpayment I told him to rent his house here and rent in Michigan What would you do? *** when you leave so cal and sell your house... its really expensive to come back - and hes not getting 2.625% any time soon ***

The worst thing about Tesla is how they make every other car feel desperately lacking in forward momentum. Who knew 1,020hp would one day not only feel reasonable for a 5-seater sedan, but also be accessible for under $100k. Three cheers to techno optimism 🥂

Academia = scarcity. Never enough jobs, funding, equipment. Good: ultra-competitive, 50 people work *really* hard to get the 1 available job. Competition -> great work. Bad: burnout, conservatism, "publish or perish" = never do *anything* that might not work/produce results

@moseskagan Pure (vs applied) math. You can do that at a rigorous school, I'm hiring you in 3 seconds.

Ambitious youngsters: You can ~always go from finance into other fields. Very difficult to go from other fields into finance without detouring through business school.

Think of this next time some midwit drones on about "the importance of incentives". Habits are way, way more powerful than incentives.

Another fun people lesson from real estate: the stickiness of habits. Late payers pay late even when there are fees. On-time payers don't ever pay the fees because they pay on time. The fees are necessary to establish the right incentives, and yet, empirically, change behavior ~0

Put differently: the best resume won't get you anywhere if the company isn't hiring. Even bad people get hired when businesses need to hire a lot of people to do something, fast.

Resumes don't hurt, but the real secret to being hired: know how to do something the business needs done RIGHT NOW and is really suffering, because they can't do it. Sales, building the product, fixing critical bugs, hiring a ton of people, whatever.

WWII taught veterans something very important: leadership. Probably one of the biggest mass education events in US history. There is nothing comparable to this today and I think it really shows.

Guy on twitter. Half of what he says is trash and the other half is gold. Is there a solution to this?

@StealthQE4 Amazing tweet. I'm glad guys like this (video) aren't running monetary policy. The dual mandate is (a) price stability and (b) full employment. Not "making real estate folks rich".

Realtors are starting to lose their minds with high rates This has to be one of the worse takes ever. He’s right about what rates are doing to purchasing power. His solution of lower rates is completely wrong You had it way too easy bro for 10 years. Hope you saved some money