Daniel Bayley

I’ve spent a decade telling people to do what I do: "Buy and Hold." Now I've decided to list my entire real estate portfolio for sale and walk away. It started slow. The bills, the maintenance, the tax increases... but the final straw was when I tried to develop an ADU to do exactly what the city of LA claims it wants investors like me to do: Create more housing. You'd think they'd make it easier, but after two delayed inspections, a sewer pipe replacement that needed 75 days advance notice, and a city-owned tree that became my responsibility, I'd had enough. The identity of being a real-estate guy is very hard to walk away from, trust me. For a long time, I stayed just because real estate was my "thing." It’s how I started. It’s what I’m known for. It led to every good thing in my life. But that blinded me to the fact that just because something served me in the past, it doesn't mean things haven't changed in the present. The reality of 2026 finally stripped the emotion away. My LA rentals are netting about 4-5% after the constant background noise of taxes, insurance spikes, and repairs. Meanwhile, a risk-free Treasury pays 5%. The trade-off just doesn't make sense any more. I’m reallocating to a liquid portfolio that actually lets me focus on the work I love. I published a deep dive on my Substack about the ADU nightmare that broke my patience, the exact numbers behind the exit, and where I’m moving the money next to buy back my sanity. I'll drop the link here in a bit.

🚨RESEARCHERS JUST MATHEMATICALLY PROVED THAT AI LAYOFFS WILL DESTROY THE ECONOMY.. AND EVERY CEO ALREADY KNOWS IT.. BUT NONE OF THEM CAN STOP.. Two researchers from UPenn and Boston University just published a paper called "The AI Layoff Trap".. They proved something terrifying.. Every company replacing workers with AI is also firing its own customers.. Every laid-off employee is someone who used to spend money.. When enough people lose their jobs.. Nobody can afford to buy anything.. And the companies that fired everyone go bankrupt selling products to an economy with no purchasing power.. Every CEO can see this coming.. The math is obvious.. Fire workers.. Lose customers.. Lose revenue.. Collapse.. But here's the trap.. No company can afford to stop.. If you don't automate.. Your competitor will.. They cut costs.. Undercut your prices.. Steal your market share.. And you die anyway.. So every company automates.. Knowing it's collectively suicidal.. Because the alternative is dying alone while everyone else survives.. It's a Prisoner's Dilemma.. And the researchers proved it mathematically.. The numbers are already stacking up.. Block cut nearly half its 10,000 employees this year.. CEO Jack Dorsey said AI made those roles unnecessary and that "within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion".. Salesforce replaced 4,000 customer support agents with AI.. Goldman Sachs deployed an AI coder that lets one senior engineer do the work of a five-person team.. Over 100,000 tech workers were laid off in 2025 alone.. AI was cited as the primary driver in more than half the cases.. 80% of US workers hold jobs with tasks susceptible to AI automation.. And here's what should scare policymakers.. The researchers tested every proposed solution.. Universal Basic Income.. Doesn't fix it.. It raises living standards but doesn't change a single company's incentive to automate.. Capital income taxes.. Don't fix it.. They change profit levels but not the per-task decision to replace a human.. Worker equity and profit sharing.. Narrows the gap but can't close it.. Collective bargaining.. Can't fix it.. Because automating is a dominant strategy.. No voluntary agreement between companies is self-enforcing.. Only one thing works.. A Pigouvian automation tax.. A per-task charge that forces every company to pay for the demand it destroys when it fires a worker.. The researchers call it a "Red Queen effect".. Better AI doesn't solve the problem.. It makes it worse.. Because every company sees a bigger market share gain from automating faster than rivals.. But at the end.. Everyone automates equally.. The gains cancel out.. And the only thing left is more destroyed demand.. The paper's conclusion is devastating.. This isn't a transfer from workers to company owners.. Both sides lose.. Workers lose their income.. Companies lose their customers.. It's a deadweight loss that harms everyone.. And no market force can break the cycle.. The AI layoff trap isn't a prediction.. It's already happening.. And the math says it won't stop on its own.

Tesla's robotaxi rollout is going to be faster than anyone expects. Here's why: Every other company building autonomous vehicles has a chicken-and-egg problem. They need cars on the road to collect data. But they need data to make the cars safe enough to put on the road. Tesla skipped that problem years ago. There are already over 7 million Teslas driving around with Full Self-Driving hardware. Every mile driven feeds the training loop. The model improves across the entire fleet simultaneously. In real time. Cybercabs start production this month (from what we're told?) But Tesla doesn't have to wait for a factory to ramp up. Owner-operated Teslas are already sitting in driveways. Owners could eventually opt into the network too. Tesla flips a switch and a city has a robotaxi fleet. The rollout looks like this: - City gets Cybercabs as Tesla scales manufacturing - Owner-operated FSD vehicles fill the gaps in the meantime - Network density compounds faster than any competitor can match Waymo took 15 years and billions of dollars to reach 3 cities. Tesla could be operational in dozens before Waymo hits 10. The distribution network was already built by the customers who bought the car. Unsure when this starts, but it very well could be this quarter. This is one of the things im most bullish on right now I'm also a Tesla owner so really hope this happens soon so I can send my idle car to work for me while I write this thread!

IRAN'S FULL "OPEN LETTER" TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE: "To the people of the United States of America, and to all those who, amid a flood of distortions and manufactured narratives, continue to seek the truth and aspire to a better life: Iran—by this very name, character, and identity—is one of the oldest continuous civilizations in human history. Despite its historical and geographical advantages at various times, Iran has never, in its modern history, chosen the path of aggression, expansion, colonialism, or domination. Even after enduring occupation, invasion, and sustained pressure from global powers—and despite possessing military superiority over many of its neighbors—Iran has never initiated a war. Yet it has resolutely and bravely repelled those who have attacked it. The Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries. Even in the face of repeated foreign interventions and pressures throughout their proud history, Iranians have consistently drawn a clear distinction between governments and the peoples they govern. This is a deeply rooted principle in Iranian culture and collective consciousness—not a temporary political stance. For this reason, portraying Iran as a threat is neither consistent with historical reality nor with present-day observable facts. Such a perception is the product of political and economic whims of the powerful— the need to manufacture an enemy in order to justify pressure, maintain military dominance, sustain the arms industry, and control strategic markets. In such an environment, if a threat does not exist, it is invented. Within this same framework, the United States has concentrated the largest number of its forces, bases, and military capabilities around Iran—a country that, at least since the founding of the United States, has never initiated a war. Recent American aggressions launched from these very bases have demonstrated how threatening such a military presence truly is. Naturally, no country confronted with such conditions would forgo strengthening its defensive capabilities. What Iran has done—and continues to do—is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense, and by no means an initiation of war or aggression. Relations between Iran and the United States were not originally hostile, and early interactions between the Iranian and American people were not marred with hostility or tension. The turning point, however, was the 1953 coup d’état—an illegal American intervention aimed at preventing the nationalization of Iran’s own resources. That coup disrupted Iran’s democratic process, reinstated dictatorship, and sowed deep distrust among Iranians toward U.S. policies. This distrust deepened further with America’s support for the Shah’s regime, its backing of Saddam Hussein during the imposed war of the 1980s, the imposition of the longest and most comprehensive sanctions in modern history, and ultimately, unprovoked military aggression—twice, in the midst of negotiations—against Iran. Yet all these pressures have failed to weaken Iran. On the contrary, the country has grown stronger in many areas: literacy rates have tripled—from roughly 30% before the Islamic Revolution to over 90% today; higher education has expanded dramatically; significant advances have been achieved in modern technology; healthcare services have improved; and infrastructure has developed at a pace and scale incomparable to the past. These are measurable, observable realities that stand independent of fabricated narratives. At the same time, the destructive and inhumane impact of sanctions, war, and aggression on the lives of the resilient Iranian people must not be underestimated. The continuation of military aggression and recent bombings profoundly affect people’s lives, attitudes, and perspectives. This reflects a fundamental human truth: when war inflicts irreparable harm on lives, homes, cities, and futures, people will not remain indifferent toward those responsible. This raises a fundamental question: Exactly which of the American people’s interests are truly being served by this war? Was there any objective threat from Iran to justify such behavior? Does the massacre of innocent children, the destruction of cancer-treatment pharmaceutical facilities, or boasting about bombing a country “back to the stone ages” serve any purpose other than further damaging the United States’ global standing? Iran pursued negotiations, reached an agreement, and fulfilled all its commitments. The decision to withdraw from that agreement, escalate toward confrontation, and launch two acts of aggression in the midst of negotiations were destructive choices made by the U.S. government—choices that served the delusions of a foreign aggressor. Attacking Iran’s vital infrastructure—including energy and industrial facilities—directly targets the Iranian people. Beyond constituting a war crime, such actions carry consequences that extend far beyond Iran’s borders. They generate instability, increase human and economic costs, and perpetuate cycles of tension, planting seeds of resentment that will endure for years. This is not a demonstration of strength; it is a sign of strategic bewilderment and an inability to achieve a sustainable solution. Is it not also the case that America has entered this aggression as a proxy for Israel, influenced and manipulated by that regime? Is it not true that Israel, by manufacturing an Iranian threat, seeks to divert global attention away from its crimes toward the Palestinians? Is it not evident that Israel now aims to fight Iran to the last American soldier and the last American taxpayer dollar—shifting the burden of its delusions onto Iran, the region, and the United States itself in pursuit of illegitimate interests? Is “America First” truly among the priorities of the U.S. government today? I invite you to look beyond the machinery of misinformation—an integral part of this aggression—and instead speak with those who have visited Iran. Observe the many accomplished Iranian immigrants—educated in Iran—who now teach and conduct research at the world’s most prestigious universities, or contribute to the most advanced technology firms in the West. Do these realities align with the distortions you are being told about Iran and its people? Today, the world stands at crossroads. Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before. The choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential; its outcome will shape the future for generations to come. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors. All that remains of them are tarnished names in history, while Iran endures—resilient, dignified, and proud."

BREAKING: Iran's President Pezeshkian has officially released an "open letter" to the American people. The letter states: 1. Iran harbors "no enmity" toward other nations, including the people of America, Europe, or neighboring countries 2. Recent US actions are "aggression" targeting civilians and infrastructure, setting up for long-term global instability 3. "What Iran has done, and continues to do, is a measured response grounded in legitimate self-defense" 4. The decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal was "made by the US government" 5. "Continuing along the path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before" Pezeshkian concludes by saying, "the choice between confrontation and engagement is both real and consequential. Throughout its millennia of proud history, Iran has outlasted many aggressors." We now await Trump's address to the US at 9 PM ET.

Today is a sad day for me. I’ve decided to part ways with a large portion of my $HOOD shares. Not because I’ve lost conviction in the company. I still believe in the business and in Vlad’s leadership. But I’m staying disciplined to my macro thesis. I believe the next few years could be severely impacted by economic headwinds. If consumers have less capital, they have less to invest. And if they have less to invest, platforms like Robinhood feel that pressure. AI is advancing at an incredible pace. I believe it will drive productivity, but I also believe it could accelerate unemployment faster than we’re prepared for. Less disposable income across America means less money flowing into stocks. It’s that simple. I could be wrong. I genuinely hope I am. But I’m positioning for what I believe is coming. I’m building my fortress. Before trimming, I held 2,500 shares. Now I hold 1,400 shares, still one of my largest positions at roughly 20% of my portfolio. What am I doing with the cash? For now, I’m staying patient. Holding tight. Adding to $GLD. Observing. If the environment unfolds the way I expect, I want to be in a strong position to act decisively. Godspeed, fam.