AndrewJDavies

@DavidMAndrews It's hard to go wrong when you mix a Greek classic with banjos.

@defence_wonk At least we'll always have "O Brother, Where Art Thou?"

This first trailer for The Odyssey seems...kinda sauce-less? The story is so grand and colourful and dramatic, but this seems fairly dull and forced. youtu.be/f_bKjZeJBBI?si…

@BuchananLiz Explain to them our population size and distances between major centres. That should make it clear - the same way it does whenever anyone decides to properly cost such a venture and then gives up on it.

friends overseas are always amazed to find 🇦🇺 doesn’t have high-speed rail let alone networked, resilient, modern logistics infrastructure. abc.net.au/news/2026-05-0…

@DavidMAndrews I'm not surprised, though it's a great pity. Making an awful Batman movie is bad enough, but the Odyssey absolutely deserves better.

@defence_wonk I wasn't expecting *heaps* when it came to interpreting the material, but this just seems...bad.

@Dr_M_Davis @AlexLuck9 @ASPI_org Oh, sure, it's the delivered effect that matters, not the platform. We're in violent agreement about that.

That's always a possibility. I'd like to think we're creative enough to be able to consider other options besides subs in that scenario, at least for anti-surface warfare, (and no, I'm not talking B-21 - see my earlier post on evolving Ghost Bat) - a mix of capabilities. My concern is that we are betting all on one type of platform, rather than investing in a suite of capabilities. But even in that scenario - where we have a serious submarine gap - we'd have to work something out to get that capability back. We can't simply throw our hands up and give up. As Alex says, we've faffed around a great deal and now the pressure is on. We have to make AUKUS work - but be prepared to be creative to mitigate risk.

Great new report out by @ASPI_org 's Richard Gray on the option for a leased 'interim sub' capability from #Japan to mitigate risk of any delays in the #AUKUS Pillar 1 Optimal Pathway - likely with the Japanese Taigei class SSKs. Given the risk of delays to acquisition of Virginia class SSNs from the US, and production of the AUKUS class SSNs by the 2040s, having an option to mitigate risk, particularly that which exists with Collins class LOTE process, makes sense. Hedging our bets: A potential Japanese option for managing risk in the AUKUS Optimal Pathway aspi.org.au/?p=52925

@AlexLuck9 @Dr_M_Davis @ASPI_org Fair enough, it's not like we have no agency and are just along for the ride. But I think we could do all sorts of things right and still end up with no subs if the externalities trend in the wrong direction.

@Dr_M_Davis @defence_wonk @ASPI_org Mal, I dont think it can be boiled down just to "we are screwed", ie nothing we do now matters. But because we traded too much time for trying and failing to get things right, our choices now are all very stark. The bridging proposal "feels good", but is a denial of reality.

@Dr_M_Davis @ASPI_org @AlexLuck9 Nonetheless, here we are.

@defence_wonk @ASPI_org @AlexLuck9 Andrew, I don't think government can accept 'we're screwed' as an option. After all, we'd be talking probably no submarine capability for decades in that scenario. There has to be a better choice. I think that's where Richard Gray's paper has merit.

@Dr_M_Davis @ASPI_org @AlexLuck9 No, I don't think that's feasible now. We passed that point almost a decade ago. It's AUKUS or screwed at this point.

Yes, re advanced SSKs as an interim 'gap' capability, I tend to agree - but my personal preference would be to keep the Japanese (or South Korean) SSKs and operate them alongside the SSNs (and UUVs) - the latter well forward, and the former close in to Australia's maritime approaches and near maritime choke points. However that option also increases workforce, sustainment and cost challenges. I'd be less inclined to try to keep Collins SSKs going. Having said that, I think there does need to be some sort of contingency planning - which is what this report is calling for, in case of unexpected disruption to the Optimal Pathway - for example, if Collins LOTE fails to deliver. That is only prudent.

@Dr_M_Davis @ASPI_org We already operated Hornets, and the weapons fit carried over as well. And it wasn't cheap. In fact, it wasn't so much a bridging capability as a capability. And that's what it has to be to be of real value. See @AlexLuck9's exceelent thread on the subject.

@Dr_M_Davis @ASPI_org It's all or nothing with AUKUS. "Bridging capabilities" come with their own fixed costs and substantial manpower overheads just to get up to speed. The only example I can think of that worked is the F-111 to Super Hornet prior to the F-35. And that was a very special case. 1/2

@AlexLuck9 Yeah, what Alex said.

Pursuing a different solution would require walking away from the Optimal Pathway. There is no other way to allocate time, resources (both human and cash) and work out operational implications for RAN. Leasing a foreign platform, even if it were available, is no shortcut. /end

Another paper proposing a "bridging solution" for AUKUS Pillar 1, IMO suffering from a lack of awareness that the "Optimal Pathway" already includes a de facto "bridging" of capability through Virginia towards AUKUS SSN, & that RAN resources are finite. 🧵 aspistrategist.org.au/hedging-our-be…

@AlexLuck9 Give a man a fish...

Perhaps if the British hadnt been minehunting in the Gulf for 40 years, the Gulf states, several of which regularly make the top 10 arms importers, would have bothered to invest in credible MCM forces.

@Dr_M_Davis @forallmankind_ The interplay the characters in the first season, especially Margot and Von Braun is really good. I've enjoyed the rest of the series, but season 1 was the dramatic high point for me.

Just started watching season 5 of @forallmankind_ this afternoon and my fiancé asks ‘what’s this?’ And so naturally, I take it back to Season 1 Episode 1. She really likes it! I’ll get back to Season 5 eventually!

@AlexLuck9 Yes, until it isn't!

@defence_wonk Which raises an interesting point, historically speaking. Depictions like above frame the issue in abstract & sudden choices. But procurement is a decade long process, as we know. The only drastic changes are imposed by operational experience. Which seems patchy & inconclusive.

If I had a penny for every time the aircraft carrier is pronounced dead, I could quite possibly afford to buy an aircraft carrier.

@MichaelS_SAA @VolodyaTretyak Temu Versailles

@VolodyaTretyak Gilded Tat.

What is the name of such interior style? 🤔

Today I learned that there are many people who have no idea what the Secretary of the Defence department actually does but nonetheless have very strong views about the required characteristics of the holder of that office.

@Airfix I'm old enough too think the "classic" artwork also looks modern! They are both very good but, on balance, I prefer the painted style over digital art.

Similar kits, but from different eras of box art! Which style do you prefer? Are you more of a classic or do you prefer a modern twist? Let us know your favourite in the comments 👇 Shop the Lightning now: ow.ly/hxMU50YR0q5 👈 #Airfix #ScaleModelling #ScaleModels

@VKAbramowicz @PrezGHz Would also have accepted "civil"

The degree in mechanical should have given it away.

@AlexLuck9 @DavidMAndrews Warning: Pavlovian response follows Numbers matter. Needing growth reserves = greater size and complexity = higher price = lower numbers. I think continuing to tweak the Virginia and taking advantage of economies of scale and learning curves makes a lot of sense.

@DavidMAndrews Well, for Arleigh Burke this of course happened with Flt III, and with Virginia this is now scheduled to happen via Blk VII (previously SSNX was to follow Blk VI). That said, neither design has any growth reserves & USN starts to feel the heat from global adversaries (ie China).

Two more Blk IV boats to go, before the first Virginia Blk V will get commissioned in 2028.