Knowledgenstuff

@EliTheNinja They'll play how they practiced, so I doubt it.

Call me crazy but I could see BEPS making grand finals this weekend 🤔

@TheDunkCentral @FirstTake c'mon man. their resume's aren't even comparable. Embiid would give a limb to have accomplished what luka's accomplished in the postseason

"Luka is starting to get in that territory of Joel Embiid. When you need him the most, and it comes postseason time, he's not available." - Kendrick Perkins (Via @FirstTake )

@BrightInsight6 @TheProjectUnity his hubris after being on rogan has been rough to watch

@TheProjectUnity You had the opportunity to ask him literally anything, to call him out on his lies and deception LIVE in front of a massive international audience, and chose not to? And you’re instead posting gloating about sitting out? That’s no W 🤷🏼‍♂️

Recently I was invited to debate Zahi Hawass on Piers Morgan. I declined the offer, I honestly don't know why we bother to give him airtime, especially after his abysmal performance on Joe Rogan. Seems pointless to me, I literally have better things to do.

@TheProjectUnity your hubris is getting a bit out of hand. sadly going to unfollow

@greg16676935420 Popsicles

I’m trying to settle a debate with a friend What are these called?

@gnoble79 Tight ranges? Suppressed volatility? What markets are you trading

"I see so many ghosts. They're already dead. They don't even know it." A 45-year Wall Street veteran just said that about the current generation of finance professionals to me. George Robertson started at Salomon Brothers in 1981 when bond yields were 14%. He's survived every blow-up from Long-Term Capital to 2008 to COVID. And he's convinced a massive reset is coming that will produce RUIN for people who don't see it. I just interviewed him, and let me walk you through the one thing most people in this space fail to understand: The stock market has effectively become a single instrument. Every major quant fund is staffed by the same MIT graduates running the same models through the same filters arriving at the same conclusions. There are maybe 4 or 5 ideas being expressed across the entire systematic trading universe at any given time. The diversity that makes markets function as a price discovery mechanism is GONE. Jane Street just reported $16.1 billion in trading revenue in a SINGLE QUARTER. One firm. 3,500 employees. More trading revenue than JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs. Full year 2025 was $39.6 billion. Lever that capital 10 to 1 across all the major quant players and you're looking at trillions in gross exposure approaching the monthly GDP of the United States. Until something overwhelms that kind of firepower, these firms effectively dictate market behavior. The rest of us are passengers. And that's why markets look so deceptively calm right now. Tight ranges, suppressed volatility, weeks and months where nothing seems to move. But the calm IS the danger. All the mispricing that should be correcting incrementally through normal price discovery is instead building up like pressure in a sealed system. And when it finally releases, it won't be a normal correction where you have weeks to adjust your positioning... It will be years of stored mispricing detonating in DAYS. We've seen the same thing before: In the 1990s, Long-Term Capital Management was so dominant in fixed income that it killed price discovery across the entire asset class. Danish mortgages, basis trades, risk arbitrage, nothing functioned properly while LTCM existed. Normal pricing only returned after they literally collapsed. Now apply that dynamic to the ENTIRE equity market. And the agencies that were supposed to protect investors from exactly this kind of concentration have been gutted. Sherman Act enforcement is effectively dead. The AI industry operates as an informal trust, 3 or 4 companies integrated vertically and horizontally in ways we haven't seen since Carnegie and Rockefeller. Trevor Milton rolled a truck down a hill, called it technology, and got pardoned. Crime pays. So who stops the next guy? Meanwhile capital markets have grown to roughly 4x GDP. When I started in this business they were roughly the SAME size. So when the repricing comes, the damage to the real economy will be multiples of anything we've experienced. Nobody has a clean answer for what to do about this. Not me. Not Robertson. Not anyone being honest with you. But after 45 years doing this myself I know this much: The correction WILL come. Price discovery WILL return. The only question is whether you survive it or whether you're one of the ghosts who never saw it coming.

@CostaKapo You're recreating the toilet paper rush from covid. You directly benefit from people getting oil changes. Irresponsible

The most bizarre thing to come from the tweet going parabolic is the people accusing me of having some insane agenda as if not having the one thing I need for my business to function could benefit me in any way. I have a small following of mostly NASCAR and SMB folks. I was merely repeating something I was told at a lunch I had, which was then repeated by a completely different contact independently and unprovoked in the same day, and I thought that was strange so I put it out to the world.

@Uzonna7 *that is not real

@Uzonna7 you can't debunk something that is not true

Fire in the Sky is more than a movie; it’s a warning. The fact that Travis Walton’s story hasn’t been debunked after 50 years makes the film 100x more terrifying. 🎬🎥 Fire In The Sky ❤️🔥

@mucha_carlos this is called social media marketing folks, he's going to make a lot of money of his post.

Always interesting when a random poster turns out to granular expertise. It turns out the the guy saying good luck getting another oil change while the Strait is closed buys more motor oil every day than anyone you’ve ever met.

@lifewithoutm @BrokenMachine why do people that bitch about a game they don't play...and if you play, then stop bitching

@BrokenMachine Are people really happy getting old content? This is why they don’t make any real effort in games anymore. People are happy with constantly rehashed content

#Battlefield 6 Cairo Bazaar Gameplay. Full Vid on the YouTubes. 👊

@arielhelwani you say he can't do it...but he did

I feel quite strongly about this: You cannot do what Strickland did and say the insane and vile things he said in the buildup to that fight, then tell us seconds after the fight is over, “I was just trying to sell the fight.” If you’re going to take us on that ride, you have to take us on that ride until the very end. That was the biggest bunch of bullshit I’ve ever heard. That is fraudulent. You cannot just walk back all the crazy things you said. I have nothing against Sean. I like Sean. But that was extremely disappointing.

@RnaudBertrand Your premise is wrong because he's writing the article to stoke the fires for a full on invasion. He doesn't actually believe we lost. He just wants to push trumps buttons to get him to go all the way

There’s no overstating how extraordinary this Atlantic article is, given the author and the outlet. As a reminder Bob Kagan is: - The co-founder of Project for the New American Century, probably the single most imperialist Think Tank in Washington (which is quite a feat) - A man who spent his entire life advocating for American military interventions, especially in the Middle East, and a vocal advocate of the Iraq war. He started advocating for intervention in Iraq before 9/11, which speaks for itself... - The husband of Victoria Nuland, an extremely hawkish former senior U.S. official (a key architect of U.S. policy in Ukraine, with the consequences we all witness today) - The brother of Frederick Kagan, one of the key architects of the Iraq surge In other words, we ain’t exactly looking at some sort of anti-imperialist peacenik. This is quite literally the guy Dick Cheney called when he needed a pep talk. And the man is writing in The Atlantic, the most reliably pro-war mainstream media outlet in the U.S. (also quite a feat). So when HE writes that the U.S. “suffered a total defeat” in Iran that has no precedent in U.S. history and can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” it’s the functional equivalent of Ronald McDonald telling you the burgers aren’t great: it means the burgers really, really aren't great. Extraordinarily (and somewhat worryingly, for me), his arguments for why this is such a defeat are virtually the same as those I laid out in my article “The First Multipolar War” last month (open.substack.com/pub/arnaudbert…). Here they are 👇 1) Vietnam/Afghanistan were survivable, this isn't He agrees that this war - and the U.S. defeat - is fundamentally different in nature from previous U.S. interventions. Where I wrote that the wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan didn’t change the equation much in terms of power dynamics (“in the grand scheme of things, the giant walked away with little more than a bruised ego”), Kagan writes that “the defeats in Vietnam and Afghanistan were costly but did not do lasting damage to America's overall position in the world.” And when I wrote that “it’s painfully obvious that the Iran war is of a qualitatively different nature” from these, he writes that “defeat in the present confrontation with Iran will be of an entirely different character.” Same point. 2) Iran will never relinquish Hormuz and uses it as selective leverage When I wrote that Iran has turned “freedom of navigation” on its head by establishing “a permission-based regime” through the Strait of Hormuz, Kagan arrives at the same conclusion: “Iran will be able not only to demand tolls for passage, but to limit transit to those nations with which it has good relations.” He also agrees that “Iran has no interest in returning to the status quo ante,” when I myself cited Iran’s parliament speaker Ghalibaf in my article, saying: “The Strait of Hormuz situation won’t return to its pre-war status.” Same point and virtually the same words. 3) Gulf states will have to accommodate Iran He agrees that most Gulf states will have no choice but to accommodate Iran, effectively making Iran into a, if not THE, dominant regional power. Kagan writes “the United States will have proved itself a paper tiger, forcing the Gulf and other Arab states to accommodate Iran.” On my end, I wrote that “the Gulf monarchies will eventually have to choose between two security propositions. One where they stay aligned with a distant superpower that [can’t protect them]. The other proposition being: make peace with the regional power that just proved it can hit [them] whenever it wants.” Which is not much of a choice… 4) Military impossibility to reopen Hormuz Kagan writes that “if the United States with its mighty Navy can't or won't open the strait, no coalition of forces with just a fraction of the Americans' capability will be able to, either.” On my end, in my article I cited Germany’s defense minister Boris Pistorius: “What does Trump expect a handful of European frigates to do that the powerful US Navy cannot?” The exact same argument. 5) Global chain reaction Kagan agrees that this is a global strategic failure that fundamentally changes the U.S.’s position in the world. As he puts it: “America's once-dominant position in the Gulf is just the first of many casualties… America's allies in East Asia and Europe must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.” You’ll have guessed it, I wrote essentially the same thing: “Think about what it says if you’re Saudi Arabia, quietly watching your American-built defenses fail to protect your own refineries. Or any European country now facing the worst energy shock since 1973, caused not by your enemy but by your ally, and realizing that said ‘ally,’ supposedly in charge of ‘protecting’ you, couldn’t even protect Israel’s most strategic sites - when it’s the country with which it’s joined at the hip. I’m not even speaking about China or Russia who are seeing their worldview being validated on almost every axis simultaneously.” 6) Weapons stocks depleted, credibility shattered Kagan: “just a few weeks of war with a second-rank power have reduced American weapons stocks to perilously low levels, with no quick remedy in sight.” Me: “America’s most advanced weapons systems are much more vulnerable than previously thought - not theoretically, but in actual combat.” Kagan: “America's allies… must wonder about American staying power in the event of future conflicts.” Me: “The U.S. security guarantee has been empirically falsified in real time.” ----------- So, yup, Bob Kagan and I agree on nearly everything. I need a shower 🤢 Reassuringly though, we still differ on a few fundamental aspects. First of all, arguably the most important one, the moral aspect. In typical neocon fashion, his article contains not a word about the human cost of this war - not the 165 schoolgirls, not the devastation inflicted on Iranians during 37 days of bombing, not the toll this war is taking on the entire world through its devastating economic consequences (the economic devastation on ordinary people worldwide is referenced only as a political problem for Trump). For him, this is purely a strategic chess problem, morality and people don’t figure in his mental map. For me, the moral bankruptcy of this war isn't separate from the strategic failure - it is the strategic failure. Much like Gaza can only be a failure because of its sheer abjectness. Secondly, there is not an instant of reflection in the article on how we got there. Which is unsurprising because he personally, alongside his wife, his brother, and every co-signatory of every PNAC letter, spent a generation pushing for exactly this kind of confrontation. The man spend 30 years advocating for military dominance in the Middle East and hostility towards Iran, thereby forging them as an adversary and facilitating this very war that he now says has “checkmated” America. I know introspection has never been the neocon forte but at some point you have to stop setting houses on fire and then writing op-eds about how surprising the smoke is. Last but not least, we differ on what should be done. This is the funniest part of Kagan’s article - showing that the man is decidedly beyond salvation. On one hand he calls this a “checkmate” by Iran, and a U.S. defeat that can “neither be repaired nor ignored,” yet an the other hand his solution for it is… surprise, surprise… a bigger war still! He writes that what’s to be done is “engage in a full-scale ground and naval war to remove the current Iranian regime, and then to occupy Iran until a new government can take hold.” The arsonist's solution to the fire is a bigger fire ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ For my end, this was the conclusion of my previous article: "There is almost a Greek tragedy quality to U.S. actions lately where every move taken to escape one’s fate becomes the mechanism that delivers it. The U.S. went to war to reassert dominance - and proved it could no longer dominate. It demanded allies send warships - and revealed it had no real allies. It waged forty years of maximum pressure to break Iran before this moment came - and instead forged the very adversary now capable of meeting it. It started the war in part to have additional leverage over China - and handed the world the spectacle of begging China for help. The prophecy was multipolarity. Every American action to prevent it reveals it instead." I wouldn’t change a word. The only thing that's changed since I wrote it is that even the arsonists now smell the smoke. Src for the Atlantic article: theatlantic.com/international/…

@clifton_roberts @Dylanmadden Do you have kids?

i used to buy into the idea that kids are expensive. then i sat with a friend who said he needed $2 million in liquidity before he could have kids. didn't think much of it at the time. a few months later i was sitting with a man who made 60% less than me. big family. happy kids. no stress about it. started paying attention after that. met business owners with families. met guys working regular jobs with families. all making it work. kids aren't expensive. your choice of woman is. if she needs the kids in designer clothes and the latest everything, yeah it's going to cost you. if she's a down to earth woman who actually wants to be a mother. who comes from a family that doesn't chase trends. who sees the joy in raising kids and not in showing them off. it's not expensive. loads of people with far less money than you are raising great kids right now. if you actually want to improve the world, the move isn't posting another youtube video. it's having children and raising them well.

@FluentInFinance No, your products are poison and no one wants to buy them. Good try though

"Consumers are literally running out of money" -Kraft Heinz CEO Nobody needed budgeting apps, roommates, and side hustles 20 years ago. One job. One income. It was enough. None of this is sustainable.

@typesfast Your tweet is a sign of how far we've come. We have the federal government admitting and providing evidence of UAP, and it's still not good enough....50 years ago this would have been the biggest news in human history.

Did they capture a single UFO video with a high resolution camera that was in focus?

@TheProjectUnity I think you're projecting a bit. You won't be shocked by disclosure, but there are a lot of people in this world that will genuinely not be able to handle the ontological shock. It could cause genuine mental illness. Hence the slow cook of dripping things out.

I refuse to be gaslit for almost 10 years by the U.S Government on UFOs. "Disclosure" was promised in 2017 when the New York Times put out its front page article on AATIP and the Pentagon/DoD/ONI etc started admitting UFOs exist in official statements, pilots came out on record, hearings were organised and testimonies were given. It has been almost A DECADE since this and we are no closer to the mythical "disclosure". We get redacted files, shit videos and second-hand testimony that never gets corroborated with actionable intelligence. This is theatre, that is what we are seeing, because the reality of disclosure involves disclosing the exotic Energy/Propulsion systems that have been developed since the 1940s. "We don't know what they are, but they do exist" is NOT a government disclosure, it's a coverup of the actual knowledge gained over multiple decades of obfuscation and secrecy. So anyone trying to tell you that this is soft disclosure, that this is a process, that they are baby-stepping the public into understanding such a shocking issue is FULL OF SHIT. The public is being exposed to livestreamed genocide and the knowledge that influential networks for the rich and powerful exist for them to systemically abuse children on a mass scale. The people are not going to be shocked by aliens. Aliens are the least of our problems.

@morganhousel It's glyphosate. There's a reason the companies that make it wanted legal immunity

I don't fully buy the idea that living in an age of uncertainty is what's driving the decline in fertility. The Baby Boom took place when your kids had to practice duck-and-cover drills at school to prepare for what was seen as the inevitable nuclear apocalypse.

@Kacper_PK_CH We've all been there

Stanley Druckenmiller: "So, I’ll never forget it. January of 2000 I go into Soros’s office and I say I’m selling all the tech stocks, selling everything. This is crazy…at 104 times earnings. This is nuts. Just kind of as I explained earlier, we’re going to step aside, wait for the next fat pitch. I didn’t fire the two gunslingers. They didn’t have enough money to really hurt the fund, but they started making 3 percent a day and I’m out. It is driving me nuts. I mean their little account is like up 50 percent on the year. I think Quantum was up seven. It’s just sitting there. So like around March I could feel it coming. I just, I had to play. I couldn’t help myself. And three times the same week I pick up a, don’t do it. Don’t do it. Anyway, I pick up the phone finally. I think I missed the top by an hour. I bought $6 billion worth of tech stocks, and in six weeks I had left Soros and I had lost $3 billion in that one play. You asked me what I learned. I didn’t learn anything. I already knew that I wasn’t supposed to do that. I was just an emotional basket case and couldn’t help myself. So, maybe I learned not to do it again, but I already knew that."

@RyanHoliday You're screaming into the void. Every admin does the same stuff. You're bias getting the best of you shows a lack of clear thinking...I hate this admin like anyone else, but simple google searches would help you see this isn't unique to trump

It doesn’t matter who you voted for or what your political beliefs are; putting kids in detention centers is wrong. When I look at my two boys, I don’t think about them getting taken. No parent should. And it shouldn’t be a privilege that we have because of what we look like. Everyone deserves that right. This has to stop.