Delta Weatherman (Hemachander R)

DWM SPECIAL UPDATE ABOUT EL-NINO WATCH DATED 5TH MARCH, 2026 #Topic : Seasonal outlook continues to bringing El-Nino conditions by September 2026. ==> The recent seasonal outlook from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) indicates a developing El Nino phase, potentially strengthening as we move through fag end of 2026. This is combined with signs of a weak to emerging positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) pattern. ==> This suggests an evolving El Niño during the Southwest Monsoon season (June–September 2026), which is generally not favorable for rainfall over India. Such conditions could lead to subdued or deficient monsoon performance for many weeks, and they may also disrupt Tamil Nadu's typical conventional thunderstorm season. ==> As we discussed before, currently sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific particularly near Peru and Ecuador are rising rapidly, with anomalies in key areas recently reaching up to +1.5°C above average. These eastern Pacific waters are now slightly warmer than at the comparable stage during the 2023 El Niño buildup. ==> Simultaneously, the western Indian Ocean continues to show warming, while the eastern Indian Ocean experiences cooling, establishing a weak but classic positive IOD pattern across the basin. #Note: As of early March 2026, the current ENSO status remains a fading weak La Niña transitioning toward neutral conditions during upcoming weeks with increasing chances of El Nino emerging from mid-2026 onward (e.g., probabilities rising to ~40–60% in some models by May–July and beyond). The ECMWF Nino plumes and multi-model ensembles support this potential shift, though exact strength and timing carry some uncertainty at this lead time. The positive IOD signals are also emerging in forecasts but remain weak/early-stage. Close monitoring of updates from ECMWF, IRI, NOAA, and other sources will be key in the coming months. Thanks & Regards R.Hemachander B.Tech., Msc Private weather blogger #ELNINO #ElNino #ENSO #Seasurfacetemperature #SST

@Jisha70440135 Yes, absolutely safe to travel...thunderstorm rain chances during evening & night hours

@Deltarains is it safe to travel to Kanyakumari by car on 8th

DWM WEATHER UPDATE DATED 5TH MAY, 2026 #Topic: A fresh low pressure area brewing off Srilanka coasts. ==> A cyclonic circulation has developed over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, off Sri Lanka. Under its influence, a fresh Low Pressure Area is likely to form over the same region during the next 36–48 hours. ==> This system is expected to increase thunderstorm rainfall activity across southern Peninsular India, including #TamilNadu, #Kerala, #South Interior #Karnataka, and parts of #AndhraPradesh. ==> In Tamil Nadu, widespread thunderstorm activity with moderate to heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds is likely over both coastal and interior districts, particularly on 8th May and 11th May 2026. Stay tuned for further updates as the system develops. Farmers and residents in rain-prone areas are advised to take necessary precautions. 🌦 Stay tuned and connected with @deltarains on X for real-time updates as the weather system evolves! 🌨️🌧️ Thanks & Regards R.Hemachander B.Tech., M.E Climate Activist, Independent Weather Blogger. Email: deltaweatherman@gmail.com #Disclaimer: This update represents my personal analysis and interpretation. #Summer #Hotweather #Temperature #summerrains #lowpressure #summercyclone

@Mumbai9628jenny Below normal monsoon rains expected this year

@Deltarains Gujarat monsoon season 2026???

DWM ELNINO WATCH SPECIAL UPDATE DATED 5TH MAY, 2026 #Topic: Heading Toward the Strongest Super El Nino in the Modern Era? ==> Latest seasonal forecasts from major models indicate a strong chance of a powerful El Nino developing in 2026, potentially one of the strongest on record. ==> The ECMWF SEAS5 shows many ensemble members projecting Nino 3.4 anomalies exceeding +2°C, with some reaching +3°C or higher by late 2026 firmly in super El Nino territory. ==> Early outlooks targeted the strongest event in roughly 150 years, rivaling the 1876–1878 mega El Nino. Current projections now suggest it could surpass modern benchmarks, especially with background global warming. ==> A super El Nino would bring widespread ripple effects: severe droughts and wildfires in #Australia, #Indonesia, #Amazon, and southern #Africa, heavy flooding and storms along the Peru Ecuador coast and U.S. Southwest weaker monsoons in #India and Southeast Asia, and shifts in tropical cyclone activity. ==> Ecosystems from coral reefs to forests and agriculture would face extreme stress from these weather swings. Stay tuned and connected with @deltarains on X for real-time updates as the weather system evolves! 🌨️🌧️ Thanks & Regards R.Hemachander B.Tech., M.E Climate Activist, Independent Weather Blogger. Email: deltaweatherman@gmail.com #Disclaimer: This update represents my personal analysis and interpretation. #SuperElNino #ElNino #elnino #SST #drought #floodseason #floods

@Rishiii2005 Above normal to excess rains recorded in previous El-Nino & Super El-Nino years...

@Deltarains What about the reaction of north east monsoon in super El-nino and elnino years?.

@JoshuaJona70103 Good rains possible

@Deltarains Anna North East monsoon eppadi irrukum

@Ravi8974 Yes, super excess possible at NEM season.

@Deltarains Will it give excess rains for chennai in NEM season?

@Muhilan20047884 Our monthly average of May is around 7 cms..It usual to experience low latitude systems during may month.

@Deltarains So climate change in line with political change?

DWM DAILY WEATHER UPDATE DATED 4TH MAY, 2026 #Topic: A fresh low pressure area brewing over Southwest Bay of Bengal. ==> Under the influence of planetary waves, a fresh Low Pressure Area is likely to form over the Southwest Bay of Bengal, close to the Sri Lankan coast, within the next 48 hours. ==> This low pressure system is expected to bring widespread rainfall across Tamil Nadu from May 8th to 11th, 2026. ==> Thunderstorm activity with rainfall will continue over many interior districts and isolated coastal areas during evening and night hours for the next few days. Good news: As anticipated, this year’s Kathiri Veyil (peak summer heat) is forecast to remain below normal and well under control due to the enhanced moisture and rainfall activity. Stay tuned for further updates as the system develops. Farmers and residents in rain-prone areas are advised to take necessary precautions. 🌦 Stay tuned and connected with @deltarains on X for real-time updates as the weather system evolves! 🌨️🌧️ Thanks & Regards R.Hemachander B.Tech., M.E Climate Activist, Independent Weather Blogger. Email: deltaweatherman@gmail.com #Disclaimer: This update represents my personal analysis and interpretation. #Summer #Hotweather #Temperature #summerrains #lowpressure #summercyclone

@stalin_steeve Yes, Chennai & adjoining districts have high chances for rains

@Deltarains Bro,KTCC also will get some decent moderate rains??

@Stalin__SP Enna bro open a adikiringa...

Hereafter I can tweet whatever I think. PEN can’t intimidate me by taking screenshots and sending them to my office. Apdiye anupunalum *செல்லாது செல்லாது*

பெரும்பான்மையை நெருங்கும் தவெக - தளபதி விஜய்க்கு உள்ளம் நிறைந்த வாழ்த்துகள்! 🔥 ஒரு தனி ஆளாக, எந்தக் கூட்டணியும் இன்றி, பணப்பலத்தை முறியடித்து, மக்கள் அன்பை மட்டும் ஆயுதமாக்கி தமிழக வெற்றிக் கழகம் பெரும்பான்மைக்கு அருகில் வந்திருக்கிறது! இது வெறும் தேர்தல் வெற்றி அல்ல... தமிழக அரசியலில் புதிய அலை, தூய்மையான எதிர்காலத்தின் தொடக்கம்! 1.5 கோடிக்கும் மேல் வாக்குகளால் அசத்திய தவெக வீரர்கள் அனைவருக்கும் பாராட்டுகள். தமிழ்நாடு இனி உங்களுக்குரியது! மக்களின் நம்பிக்கைக்கு தகுதியான தூய்மையான ஆட்சியைத் தர தளபதி விஜய் அவர்களுக்கு மனமார்ந்த வாழ்த்துகள்! 🙏❤️ #TVKVijay‌HQ #TVKVijay‌ #TVK‌ #CMVijay #Josephvijay #cmvijay #tnelections

"Back on April 25 I posted this and got trolled heavily. Today election results Just reflecting what I saw on the ground".. TVK surging, ADMK steady at 2nd, DMK slipping to 3rd. Today’s early counting trends match exactly. Ground reality > Media narrative & survey reports & polls.. #TamilNaduElections #TVKVijay‌HQ #TVKVijay‌ #Vijay‌

#தலைப்பு: சென்னையில் வெயிலின் தாக்கம் இன்று குறையும். ==> கத்திரி வெயில் இன்று (மே 4) துவங்கும் நிலையில், தீவிர மழை மேகங்கள் சென்னை கடலோர பகுதிகளில் காணப்படுவதால் இன்று சென்னை, திருவள்ளூர், காஞ்சிபுரம், செங்கல்பட்டில் வெயிலின் தாக்கம் குறைந்தே காணப்படும். ==> இன்று மாலை/இரவு வட கடலோர மாவட்டங்கள், உள் மாவட்டங்கள் மற்றும் மேற்கு மாவட்டங்கள் உள்பட தமிழகத்தில் பரவலாக இடி,மின்னலுடன் கூடிய கனமழைக்கு வாய்ப்பு. ==> பகலில் மழைக்கான வாய்ப்பு இல்லை, மழைக்கு முன்னதாக தரைக்காற்று சற்று பலமாக வீசக்கூடும். என்றும் இயற்கையுடன் டெல்டாவெதர்மேன் ஹேமச்சந்தர்

@Funnybones2K Great to hear...much needed one

@Deltarains Heavy rain and wind around Tiruttani region now.

தமிழகத்தின் உள் மாவட்டங்களில் இடிமழை தீவிரமடைந்துள்ள நிலையில், கடலோர மாவட்டங்களில் மழை எப்போது? கத்திரி வெயிலில் காத்திருக்கும் கனமழை... மே மாத வானிலை குறித்த வரைகலை விளக்கம்.. #Mayrains #summerrains #thunderstorms

நாளை தொடங்குகிறது கத்தரி வெயில் #AgniNatchathiram | #Summer | #TNRain

@kums933 Yes, completely agree and this year expected some heat wave conditions during June & July..

@Deltarains June and July months are the worst nightmare for tamilnadu rather than may and April.

DWM DAILY WEATHER UPDATE DATED 3RD MAY, 2026 #Topic: Kathiri Veyil expected to be under control. ==> Widespread thunderstorm activity and rainfall continued over the interior districts today. Notable rainfall recorded includes: Vadipatti (Madurai District) 10 cm, Thirupuvanam (Sivakasi): 8 cm, Cholavanthan (Madurai): 7 cm. ==> This pattern is expected to persist in the upcoming days as well, with hot conditions during the daytime followed by thunderstorm rains during the evening and night hours. ==> Kathiri Veyil (peak summer period) is likely to begin from tomorrow, 04.05.2026, and is expected to last until 28.05.2026. ==> However, the good news is that this year’s Kathiri Veyil is forecast to remain under control and below normal. ==> Favourable planetary wave positions, frequent thunderstorm activity, and the early arrival of the Southwest Monsoon are likely to keep temperatures in check. ==> Additionally, coastal Tamil Nadu is expected to receive good thunderstorm rains from the second week of May onwards. Stay tuned for further updates! Stay tuned and connected with @deltarains on X for real-time updates as the weather system evolves! 🌨️🌧️ Thanks & Regards R.Hemachander B.Tech., M.E Climate Activist, Independent Weather Blogger. Email: deltaweatherman@gmail.com #Disclaimer: This update represents my personal analysis and interpretation. #Summer #Hotweather #Temperature #summerrains