dem1

@JeffMacke +23% comps in growing category and stabilizing flagship brand is not warranted for a 30% sell off

I guess the Great Denim and Panty rebirth has come to an end. In flight with just enough bandwidth for hockey and quotes. Little afraid to get the real news… $AEO $VSCO $ANF

It’s such a great setup. Honestly the only thing relatively concerning is the credit strength of Byborg (Hungary) and new china licensee remaining solvent / I think they will over short term but it is a risk. Also $plby may still be able to collect some of their court $$ in china they won the other month. Also expect a relatively large domestic license in this calendar year as well. When you are focused on strictly licensing some major wins can still be had . Honey needs to be sold though.

And I'd be remiss to not mention the free call option on r/wallstreebets meme-ing this to infinity.

$PLBY more people doing the math today. My numbers, welcome pushback if I am getting any of this wrong. Fully diluted now ~$275m. Net debt end of Sept was ~$130m. For simplicity assuming $45m purchase price proceeds received today + $5m FCF, pro forma net debt is $78m. So call it $350m EV. What do you get? 1. China licensing business. Worth thinking about the implied mark on the 50% sale. Annualizing last Q, China revenues are ~$12m. UTG is paying $122m (front loaded) over 8 years for half of this...which is eye-popping when you consider the min guarantee is $8.3m + another $3.3m the first three years - i.e. UTG is paying PLBY almost all of the existing business' revenue as a guarantee...which tells you they have extreme confidence in being able to meaningfully grow this revenue stream. (unsurprising given PLBY's China licensing used to be $40m) PLBY participates in any upside presumably once UTG's 50% distribution equals the min guarantee - i.e. after $16.m of cash flow. PLBY trading some upside for less risk and a partner that can better navigate China, but they presumably see some upside to their distribution. Say they earn $11m in revenue from this annually. 2. Ex-China licensing $20m guaranteed annually from Byborg, with 25% of the upside beyond that. Like UTG, clear Byborg expects upside to that guarantee (hence their big equity stake in PLBY). Call it $22m annually to PLBY. Other licensing. Already running at >$15m. Significant upside to that over time from endless monetization angles: playmate paid search, night club, etc. So call it $35m annually for core licensing. Adding China back --> ~$45m of extremely high-margin licensing revenue (90% gross margin today), with most of that guaranteed. Last Q, ex Honey Birdette opex was ~$9m, but ~$2.8 was one-off legal and severance costs. So closer to $6m or $24m annualized. Room for that to come down. $20m EBITDA? High margin, largely guaranteed royalty revenue attached to incredibly durable IP, with optionality for long growth runway... 20x EBITDA? = $400m EV. 3. Honey Birdette This biz is whatever, but it's growing and has decent gross margin ~60%. Expect this will get sold, I think $50m of proceeds is reasonable. That would yank most of the cost/capital out of PLBY and ROICs will explode. Putting it together... Net debt post HB sale, $45m UTG proceeds, and $10m of FCF --> net debt drops to all the way down to $20m. $400m EV --> $380m market cap = $3.30/share vs. $2.40 today. Fair value can compound for a long a time, given capital-light model with limited terminal value risk.

@guyfosel Market needs to clear out of these …. Take the 100% losses and move on. The slow process just delaying the inevitable

Apollo Global Management took a roughly $170 million hit after an asset-backed financing for Amazon brand aggregator Perch was wiped out. Some might remember that Perch was acquired by Razor Group in 2024. These assets are toxic ☠️

@John_Hempton When you try to own someone maybe understand what you are talking about . Or you just being your usual obtuse self?

Hilton Hotels is asserting their Third Amendment rights... No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law Do you have a problem with the constitution?

@NUCLRGOLF Small little draw to right side of green . Safe and make putt

How would you play this shot? 🌲🏌🏻‍♂️🌲

@dave_stickland Yes for sure

@demrick Makes total sense to me. Would you want brands who were on Amazon to let you know you could subscribe there?

Just had my advisor tell me that subscription revenue on my consumables is irrelevant and unworthy chasing in 2026 as we roll them out. Feels incredibly counter intuitive to the CPG narrative. He's on the board of a few brands in store. Says their dtc sub rate is low

@1CoastalJournal @GregCrennan Umm for any growing company inventory should grow faster than revs - obviously dangerous but you do need stock to sell

If $NVDA Earnings reported strictly cash earnings AR/Inventory grew 90%+ vs. Rev 62.5%. Real EPS (OCF-based) is $0.97 not $1.30 ⚠️ 25% of profit is Non-cash IOUs. It’s why the company books sales without 💵 cause if they waited for the 💵 they would miss quarterly numbers.

@guyfosel Likely foreign ecom companies setting up “us based” companies at least in name and address - best guess. Or something technical changed in another field that is now considered “retail”

New monthly LLC formations in the Retail Trade sector have 6x'd since last year. What's driving this?

@Uzocapital Crazy how undervalued this is . License deal alone w byborg should be worth entire enterprise value

$PLBY. Results were a beat but more importantly confirmed new licensing deals that will underpin licensing revenue growth with much more in the pipeline. Thesis firmly on track.

@SMB_Attorney Boomers were 35-45 when rates were double where they are now

Millennials got left holding the bag by our parents. Shocking.

@CigarLogs For sure . If are in LA let me know . I come go china usually guangzhou or guangdong once or twice a year as well

@demrick Appreciate it, bro! 🔥 Let’s light one up together someday — good cigars deserve good company. 💨🤝

Midnight rituals. Just me, the silence, and a table full of Cuban treasures. 💨🌙 Some collect memories. I collect moments you can light.🔥 #Cigars #CubanCigars #Cohiba

@mattyglesias They are being banned?

@joceyreyes209 It’s a parody account

Mother of the year finalist?

@iscoe @NewYorker Not sure if AI is now the editor but it’s “vendors” not “venders”

@NewYorker read more: newyorker.com/magazine/2025/…

for this week's @newyorker, i conducted an investigation into the bizarre case of "fake brides"

@NUCLRGOLF @Top100Rick Kush!!!!

WHO WOULD YOU WANT AS YOUR QB FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS: ❤️ for CJ STROUD 🔁 retweet for JALEN HURTS

@Molson_Hart Got same alert for a benign product today as well. Algo’s running wild again

good morning

@petereharrell For China is section 301 now 25% + 10%? Or just 10% now?

Just finished reading all the EOs. Maximalist tariffs tonight. For example: 25% duty on Canada covers all goods, except energy at 10%. Maple syrup, lumber, auto parts... 10% China tariffs cover all products, including stuff Trump didn't tariff in Term 1, e.g., laptops, TVs. 25% Mexico tariffs cover everything. Auto parts, oil, avocados, tequila, all of it. No more de minimus exemptions. Tariffs on small packages, including gifts from relatives. Waiting to hear retaliatory measures later tonight.