molson 🧠⚙️

149.6K posts

molson 🧠⚙️ banner
molson 🧠⚙️

molson 🧠⚙️

@Molson_Hart

Founder and CEO of Viahart, a consumer products company. Founder and former CEO of Edison, a legal tech company. Doer of many things.

Katılım Temmuz 2015
2.6K Takip Edilen81.9K Takipçiler
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
A couple of years ago Amazon required all sellers to carry insurance. I thought this would have a negative effect on overseas sellers because, generally, they were much more likely to sell product with product liability issues. Didn’t happen. It turns out they were able to get insurance overseas and they pay less. I don’t know the trucking industry but I could see there being some LLC 3 card monte with this and nothing actually changes.
English
0
0
0
374
Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️
Yikes. Assuming that insurance carriers price brokerage insurance like assets we could see 10x increase in insurance rates for brokers. Not sustainable.
English
5
4
37
11.4K
Glenn
Glenn@GlennLuk·
Thailand has a relatively inexpensive source of immigrants by being part of ASEAN and attracting migrants from less-developed neighbors like Laos and Myanmar. If it develops itself as a regional manufacturing hub within ASEAN, it will be able to source requisite blue-collar labor.
English
1
0
2
140
Steven Lubka ☀️
Steven Lubka ☀️@DzambhalaHODL·
@Molson_Hart But they're limited in what they have control over, they can't, for example vote to give themselves more money at the expense of other shareholders. And even to do so would collapse the share price materially.
English
1
0
0
29
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
Good example of how negative news is more viral. The Korean stock market is up nearly 3x in the last year. You can barely see the so called "crash". I'm done with stock markets. I understand their theoretical utility (help the best companies get capital) and their practical necessity (protection vs. inflation), but I'm just over them. They're fake. I'd rather spend my time and energy on other things.
molson 🧠⚙️ tweet media
Bull Theory@BullTheoryio

🚨 BLOODBATH IN SOUTH KOREA. KOSPI hit a new ATH of 8,000 today and then crashed 8.4% in the same session, wiping ₩509 Trillion ($370 billion) in 6 hours. Samsung, which makes up 42% of the entire index, crashed 8.61%

English
15
6
79
22.2K
Steven Lubka ☀️
Steven Lubka ☀️@DzambhalaHODL·
@Molson_Hart Because everyone is incentivized the same way, the company operators make most of their money from the stock going up and if that doesn't happen they don't make it. It's a system that's designed around giving everyone the same incentives. Where's everyone = shareholders
English
1
0
0
34
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
@DzambhalaHODL Is quality is getting worse but earnings are getting better why would you trust the earnings or the companies making things worse to do good to their shareholders Feels like doing a good deal with bad people
English
1
0
0
49
Steven Lubka ☀️
Steven Lubka ☀️@DzambhalaHODL·
@Molson_Hart Yeah, I don't disbelieve that for the most part. I think what I would say is the stock market doesn't measure quality, etc it measures earnings. And the two can be in direct tension. It's also all boosted by currency debasement which explains part of the always going up
English
1
0
0
59
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
@DzambhalaHODL Every public company I interact with is getting worse in terms of the quality of their goods and services. Maybe their earnings are going bonkers. I don’t know. I just don’t know. It’s just an intuitive feeling shared by most people I think.
English
1
0
1
32
Steven Lubka ☀️
Steven Lubka ☀️@DzambhalaHODL·
But what about it makes it look and feel fake - I'm just wondering which qualities cause you to say that? Is it just that it has gone up so much during a time of global economic uncertainty? My answer would be the markets have been following earnings growth which has been some of the fastest we have ever seen (even while many firms get crushed from higher oil prices). AI driven revenue growth is over powering Hormuz driven slowdown.
English
1
0
0
37
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
@GlennLuk It kind of is with BYD etc but its demographics are messed up. Dunno if they’re solving with immigrants
English
3
0
2
356
Glenn
Glenn@GlennLuk·
@Molson_Hart Originally I thought you were saying that Thailand is finally industrializing (which I would agree with). Thailand is now (with the help of Chinese FDI) manufacturing more EVs domestically than Japan (~300k vs. ~200k per year) x.com/Molson_Hart/st…
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart

@alokbishoyi97 It’s mostly a comment on Japan’s economy shifting towards tourism and prostitution as Thailand’s economy shifts to a lost decade (longer?) amidst low TFR after an asset price boom.

English
2
3
28
1.6K
Glenn
Glenn@GlennLuk·
I liked both posts and would just emphasize "just don't lie or exaggerate" Whether you undersell yourself I have found is often a function of one's individual perspective on what they consider underselling. I have friends who think they are overselling themselves when I can observe as a third party that they aren't. What I've found to be helpful is to ask close people who you know will give you an honest answer whether they think you are under- or over-selling yourself. Of course mom's aren't neutral but I think it's perfectly fine — great even — for mom's to talk about their kids like this. That's the Forrest Gump Mom Rule.
English
1
0
4
519
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
@calvinfroedge US politics is a complex system. One cannot predict its direction anymore than we can predict tomorrow’s market price.
English
2
0
6
666
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
@alokbishoyi97 It’s mostly a comment on Japan’s economy shifting towards tourism and prostitution as Thailand’s economy shifts to a lost decade (longer?) amidst low TFR after an asset price boom.
English
0
0
4
1.8K
Petri Kuittinen
Petri Kuittinen@KuittinenPetri·
English is not a problem here. I know many who have lived many years, even over 10 years, never learning the local language and do absolutely fine with English as almost everyone (except the elderly) speak English. Finland is a cold country, but the South isn't as cold as the colder parts of USA. Summer is way too short here, but it can get as hot as +35 C (+95 F). I know that's little compared to Texas and we have so hot only few days and not every summer.
English
1
0
2
31
deadalnix
deadalnix@deadalnix·
@Molson_Hart Problems are: 1. It's not clear what the next reserve currency will be. 2. We probably aren't looking at a fast collapse like in Germany, but at an empire fading, which takes decades. We can't wait for decades.
English
1
0
1
36
Cody Boyte
Cody Boyte@codyboyte·
@Molson_Hart A week ago I played basketball with a guy who played in the G League. LeBron is probably 10x better than him. He was playing like 10% against me and could do anything he wanted at any time. It was like me playing against a 12 year old. There are levels and the gaps are wide.
English
1
0
4
194
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
We cannot conceive how much better top 10 experts are. Height is normally distributed, which means that the taller you are relative to the average, the likelihood that someone else is taller than you, shrinks not only increasingly, but almost exponentially. Said another way, you've probably met someone who is 1 foot taller than you are, but you've never met someone who is twice your height. 3 times? Get out of here. Because we walk around on this earth and meet many people, some taller, some shorter, it's pretty easy for us to conceptualize how someone could be significantly taller than us, perhaps 1.2x as tall of 1.3x as tall etc. But it is not possible for us to conceptualize how much better an NBA player is than we are at basketball. Why? They could be 1000x as good. How is that possible? They're just 1.5x as tall. It's because their basketball skill is the product of multiple normally distributed traits. Each trait, by itself concentrates around an average, but basketball skill isn't just about how tall you are. It's about: - speed - strength - work ethic - experience - visual pattern recognition - spatial awareness - dexterity The chance that someone is twice as tall as you could be 0.00001% But if basketball skill is the multiplicative product of 8 traits, then all they need to be is 9% better than you are to be twice as good at basketball because 1.09^8 = 2 And the chance that someone is 9% better than you are at 8 things is way more likely than someone is twice as tall as you are, but in basketball world, their effective skill output is the same. (and remember that these traits can be positively correlated making this even more likely!) Individual traits are normally distributed by skills which are the product of many are not, they have fat tails, meaning that the chance that someone is 10x or 100x better than you are is not acceleratingly exponentially small. It can happen. Elon Musk probably has 1,000,000x as much money as you do. Lebron James might legitimately be 1,000,000x as good as you are at basketball. We can't wrap our minds around it, but it very well might be true.
English
13
2
81
10.4K
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
@deadalnix Iirc Weimar showed that they protect you more than hyper inflated currency but worse than the new reserve currency
English
1
0
1
195
deadalnix
deadalnix@deadalnix·
@Molson_Hart They are fake because they are measured in money that's fake. Unfortunate, but you shouldn't ignore them, because they absorb all the money printing like a sponge. It doesn't create much real life value, but if you don't play, you lose to inflation by default.
English
1
0
1
277
@levelsio
@levelsio@levelsio·
Good reminder to everyone who is always like "what does it matter if everyone gets a mind virus just ignore it" Okay but then you ignore it and suddenly you're allergic to meat because they spread genetically engineered tics because "meat is bad" It's always a slippery slope!
TFTC@TFTC21

A peer-reviewed paper published last year in the journal Bioethics by two professors at Western Michigan University School of Medicine argues that it is "morally obligatory" to genetically engineer ticks to spread alpha-gal syndrome, a permanent condition that makes you violently allergic to red meat. The paper is called "Beneficial Bloodsucking." Their argument: if eating meat is morally wrong, then preventing the spread of a disease that forces people to stop eating meat is also morally wrong. Scientists should gene-edit lone star ticks to enhance their ability to carry alpha-gal syndrome and expand their range into urban environments to infect more people. They call this a "moral bioenhancer." They frame releasing genetically modified disease-carrying ticks as a "vaccination" that only "infringes" on your bodily autonomy rather than "violating" it. The distinction, apparently, is that a tick bit you instead of a government official holding you down. Alpha-gal syndrome is not mild. The CDC estimates up to 450,000 Americans are already affected. Cases have surged 100-fold in the last decade. Symptoms include anaphylaxis. There is no cure. Alpha-gal cases are exploding across the United States. The lone star tick's range is expanding far beyond its historical territory. And two academics at a medical school published a paper arguing this is a good thing that should be accelerated. At what point do we stop treating papers like this as fringe academic exercises and start asking whether anyone is already acting on them?

English
37
92
1.6K
135.2K
molson 🧠⚙️
molson 🧠⚙️@Molson_Hart·
@KuittinenPetri Cold weather and language? Dunno what % of Finn’s speak English. Finland doesn’t have a strong brand either.
English
1
0
0
79
Petri Kuittinen
Petri Kuittinen@KuittinenPetri·
I have no idea what are the real estate prices in Texas, but I would assume they have been going up massively in past ~50 years, as so many millions have moved in. Plus the demographic shift must be visible. Foreign-born residents rose from 2.8% in 1970 to roughly 18.4% by 2024, with immigration (both legal and unauthorized) significantly driving population growth. Here in Finland we have experienced also massive increase of foreigners, but we are still behind the curve compared to Texas and many European countries. Luckily Finland is among the affordable housing countries in Europe. You can get a large house + own yard within 1 h of driving distance from Helsinki (the capital), next to schools, shops - for ~110k euros. Assuming you are okay with an old house. I can imagine similar location + size would cost ~$500k in USA, maybe a bit fancier inside, but also less insulation against bitter cold winter.
English
2
0
1
91