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Not a tinfoil hat thing, @herrmanndigital! Very simple, but alsooo get comfortable, strap yourselves in:
Meta was counting all conversions after any clicks on an ad as conversions until ~March 16th. (Clicks to pause a video, clicks to read comments, clicks to like a post, etc)
Meta is optimized to take credit for as many conversions as it can.
Meta's optimization doesn't care if those conversions were caused by those ads or if they just took credit for them by getting them after "clicks".
Meta's machine learning algorithm is extraordinary at targeting in-market users.
Meta knows what users are in-market and most likely to buy.
Meta knows this from actions users take on your website annnnd on other websites.
Meta's system knows which cheap clicky ads are easiest to deliver to those warm users. (If you let it!)
Meta delivers cheap clicky ads to high-intent users so it can easily steal credit for tons of "conversions" (that were actually driven by other sources).
Meta doesn't care whether or not it caused the conversions (and whether they're incremental) or not.
Meta only cares that it can take credit for it.
Many of those clicks were not valuable or high-intent clicks, but they look like it in reporting.
Check your link clicks vs clicks (all) and CPC vs CPC (all)
Many advertisers have formed their opinions about "what works" with creative but in reality all they learned is what clicky highly-branded ads work at getting non-incremental "conversions" from warm users and existing customers instead of actually driving value/impact.
Nooooow, Meta is only counting conversions after link clicks since ~March 16th.
Sooooo, in order for it to take credit for many of those same "conversions" Meta had to shift delivery to ads that weren't just getting clicks, but getting actual link clicks.
Getting link clicks is typically harder and more expensive than getting cheaper in-platform clicks.
Before: it favored ads with cheap in-platform clicks.
After: it has to favor ads with cheap link clicks.
This has caused a few problems for advertisers:
1. Meta had to focus more on link clicks instead of all clicks, so that means traffic increasing (including clickbait and mis-clicks), CPC's dropping, and CVR plummeting for some advertisers.
2. If it's harder for Meta to get conversions (or "conversions") for you now, your costs increase (that's just how their relevance/auction system works).
Accounts that were advertising with the most real incremental impact were hurt the least.
Accounts with the least incremental impact were hurt the most.
Factors that relate to the most pain in the past month, but not exclusively:
1. Bigger brands
2. Brands with more traffic from sources other than Meta, like other ad platforms, high-intent search ads/organic, etc
3. Accounts using minimal or zero customer/visitor/engager exclusions, especially for brands with high repurchase rates
Things to consider changing/improving if this has been happening to you:
1. Exclude all customers and/or RECENT visitors/engagers (but less necessary if you do #2...)
2. Use Incremental Attribution optimization and reporting: Meta uses its powers to get you more actual incremental conversions rather than just click-attributed "conversions"
3. Revisit and re-study your creatives, some old "losers" might actually be hidden winners.
4. Conversion lift studies for free in Meta's Experiments tab and/or incremental lift tests from 3rd party platforms
5. Book a call with me and I can help you better understand all of this
I don't think Meta understood (or cared) how much this would impact some advertisers.
Meta's system is probably still adapting, and it may not improve for advertisers who don't adapt with it.
I hope you found this valuable, I'd love to hear your thoughts, experiences, and opinions.
David Herrmann@herrmanndigital
My tinfoil hat is Meta underestimated what removing the "engaged click" from click attribution would do to the modeling and it's essentially broken. The brands that didn't have a ton of "engaged clicks" are not seeing the same impacts as the brands that did. In my portfolio if we saw a brand that pre-March 16th have higher than 10-15% of all attributed conversions tied to that engaged click these accounts are seeing the biggest CVR drops from Meta and overall most impacted. If it was way under that 10-15% those brands are cruising and overall having decent months.
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