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BREAKING: Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF to go live tomorrow — Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas 🚀

Happy Easter, New York! Today, millions of New Yorkers celebrate the resurrection of Jesus Christ and the victory of hope over despair and faith over fear.  As the air warms and cherry blossoms begin to bloom, this holy day is a sacred time to pause and reflect on a season of rebirth. Whether you spend this day singing in pews, parading on Fifth Avenue, joining a processional guided by the bamboo trumpets of Haitian Rara music, or hunting for painted eggs amidst the spring grass, I wish every New Yorker celebrating a joyous day. Let us all embrace this holiday's spirit of hope and renewal as we build the City — and the world — that we deserve.

Bitcoin has won. Global consensus is that $BTC is digital capital. The four-year cycle is dead. Price is now driven by capital flows. Bank and digital credit will determine Bitcoin’s growth trajectory. The biggest risk is bad ideas driving iatrogenic protocol changes.

SCHWAB: ONLY 5% OWN CRYPTO -- BUT ACCESS IS ABOUT TO OPEN Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster says just ~5% of Schwab’s 38M accounts have crypto exposure -- and many are holding it outside Schwab today. That’s the setup. Schwab plans to launch spot crypto trading in the next few months, giving clients a reason to bring those assets back onto its platform. This isn’t new demand, it’s trapped demand getting unlocked. When access gets easier at this scale, flows follow.

It’s a Good Friday to buy Bitcoin.

🔥BITCOIN JUST FLASHED A SIGNAL WITH A 100% HIT RATE ACROSS 15 YEARS OF DATA🔥 The power law z-score just dropped to −0.93σ. I backtested every single time BTC reached this level of oversold. Here's what happened next: → Median 12-month forward return: +631% → WORST-case 12-month return: +82% → Win rate: 100% (7 out of 7 episodes) → Best case: +2,500% Read that again. The absolute floor... the worst outcome in history from buying this level... was still almost a DOUBLE. For context: • Mar 2020 COVID crash hit this zone → +1,020% in 12 months • Nov 2022 FTX collapse hit this zone → +151% in 12 months • Sep 2023 hit this zone → +128% in 12 months BTC at $66K is trading 47% below its power-law fair value of $125K. The model (R² = 0.96) has held across 4 halving cycles, 3 bear markets, and every black swan you can name. The math doesn't negotiate. It just compounds. Not financial advice. Just a model and 5,700 days of data.

BREAKING: SpaceX has confidentially filed for an IPO, putting the company on track for a June 2026 listing, per Bloomberg.

It just feels like something is different with STRC. The price is so steady that one would have to believe that there's a market maker being compensated to make a tight market. And there was something interesting about how Phong Le commented on the steadiness of that price. Perhaps they've worked out a deal with a large bank to market STRC exclusively and guarantee that perpetuity can be sold at par every 12 months or something like that. In exchange of course they would probably require two points of spread between the price at they buy it from strategy on origination and the price at which they sell to their clients as a stable coin or effectively a one year CD which puts it in the category of a money market instrument. The bank is carrying so much US Treasury product that they could easily pledge it as collateral for the yearly redemption option. This is something this strategy can't do and it's something that would keep the price at par because pull to par would take effect. With the pledging of US Treasury debt, STRC would get a credit rating equivalent to the United States government. This is just crazy stuff coming out of my head FYI I know nothing. It's just what I call a Walter Mitty dream But it would be pretty cool and it would change the game completely. Imagine a bank offering wrapped STRC digital credit with one year liquidity yielding 10% after tax. I say after tax because of the IRS treatment of return of capital. Gosh I haven't owned any MSTR exposure for such a long time. It's been such a tough ride for them but I hear there will be growth in the spring.

This made me laugh.