Diana foltz
39 posts









$ARDX 12 month target raised to $19 from $16 Laura Chico @ Wedbush Remain Outperform rated on ARDX, new $19 target. Following release of FY26 Ibsrela guidance, we are raising our estimates with FY29 Ibsrela revenue increasing to $878M (consensus $847M) which raises our target to $19 (from $16). We also met last week with ARDX President/CEO Mike Raab, CFO Sue Hohenleitner, Chief Commercial Officer Eric Foster and Chief Patient Officer Laura Williams and come away incrementally positive on Ibsrela's ramp. Based on prior pivotal data we think the Phase 3 chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) program appears de-risked and a cost-effective way to expand Ibsrela's footprint. While media reports suggest potential interest from Zydus Lifesciences (not covered) in acquiring or investing in a majority stake in ARDX, this is not central to our ARDX thesis. ARDX shares trade at a discount vs. peers (3X FY26 sales vs. 5X peers) and with Ibsrela's growth trajectory, we like the setup on ARDX shares into 2026. Pipeline- Beyond the guidance targets, ARDX unveiled a new Phase 3 chronic idiopathic constipation (CIC) study examining three Ibsrela doses versus placebo over 26 weeks. Prior T3MPO post hoc data analyses at weeks 12 and 26 suggested durable effects on pain and constipation. We look for ARDX's Phase 3 CIC study to complete enrollment in late-2026 We increased our FY26 Ibsrela estimate to $422M (prior $389M) which is ahead of consensus $393M. Recall, management guided to FY26 Ibsrela revenue $410M-$430M. ARDX also anticipates FY29 Ibsrela revenue reaching $1B. Our revised FY29 estimate increases to $878M (prior $653M, consensus $847M) and our ARDX target increases to $19 (from $16)








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