Dhanasekar TS

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Dhanasekar TS

Dhanasekar TS

@dhanasekar_ts

In market since 2019, Working in IT, discretionaryTRΛDΞR | Discipline & Consistency are the key|Patience Pays|Nifty|Sensex

United Kingdom Katılım Kasım 2019
190 Takip Edilen709 Takipçiler
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
Good month came to an end. It would have been a best month if I didn't have that one big loss (7.8L). It is all because of high VIX. Hope it works out next month also.
Dhanasekar TS tweet media
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@moneyworks4u_fa Yes Sandeep I had the same dream . For that ruppee should stop falling.I even tried to fact check with chatgpt. It's very hard to reach this despite so much initiative to reduce oil import , horizontal integration in manufacturing, improve manufacturing export and move to EV.
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Sandeep Kulkarni
Sandeep Kulkarni@moneyworks4u_fa·
"A realistic exchange rate by 2047 would instead fall in the ₹45-75 range, with a midpoint near ₹60" This is vastly different than simple extrapolation of 3-4% currency depreciation.
Harsh Gupta Madhusudan@harshmadhusudan

If people who are not supposed to be experts say something like this, that is fine. It is not their core area. But for people who are supposedly professional investors, this is an astonishing level of ignorance. I do not mean to pick on this gentleman as there are many more such folks. Point is to teach and to learn. India's PPP conversion rate is 20, quibbles aside. The multiplier to get to 96 is 4.8. Theoretically, if India and US had same incomes the multiplier would be around 1. The reduction of the multiplier as a country grows is called the Balassa Samuelson effect. Some call it the Penn effect. I would also like to acknowledge Jagdish Bhagwati's work in this context. Now, PPP conversion rate drifts upwards by relative inflation difference and some adjustments. While India is likely to bring down its 4% target inflation before 2047, let us say it remains 4% and US at 2% (though they have been exceeding it.) That takes 2047 PPP rate to 30 from 20. Now a 240 USDINR then would mean a 8x PPP/MER. Such a number is flat out impossible for an economy-pair like US-India, even less so that by 2047 India will have 35-40% of US incomes adjusted for cost of living and population (like say a Chile today) at only 5% faster growth (RLCU.) Currently India has 13-14% of US incomes. Now what is an ideal multiple for 35-40% of US income. It depends on global cycle, country scale, deficits etc. But broadly it should be in the 1.5-2.5x region. Which means the rupee should be in the 45-75 region as per this analysis. The midpoint is 60, which is 4 times stronger than the quoted analysis has suggested. So unless one believes that India will have double digit inflation, US low inflation, India low growth, US high growth and all four together - the quoted number is almost impossible to materialise. I understand this is boring, step-by-step analysis but this is the only way to understand this phenomenon. Hope it helps.

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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@aravind You are an utter liar. If USD lose global purchase power compared to the INR, why does $1 USD buy 36% MORE Euros today than it did in 2008 (€0.86 vs €0.63), while ₹100 INR buys 40% FEWER Euros today than it did back then? The data literally shows the USD grew, Inr weak
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Aravind
Aravind@aravind·
This is not a "real story". This is just a story. Indians earn, save, and spend in INR. This sort of misrepresentation, coming from a professor, seems purposefully creating fear, uncertainty, and doubt. The USD itself has lost ~32% of its purchasing power in the last 15 years. This is because of inflation. Controlled inflation (under 5-6%) is considered normal and even healthy for a growing economy. A fast growing economy like India tends to have higher inflation naturally. In fact, central bankers and finance ministers get worried if inflation drops too low. Focusing only on the nominal USD rate without this context is purposefully misleading. So while INR has lost its purchasing power, it is natural just like the USD has lost its purchasing power. Someone's savings in India, to be used in India, suddenly doesn't become 50% less due to USD/INR rate increase. One day in the coming time, INR will suddenly start appreciating against the USD quickly. Then what will they say? They will change the attack to "inflation" then. These are the same people talking about de-dollarization and USD "crashing soon" as well. So assuming they are right, if suddenly we wake up to 1 USD = 50 INR, did every Indian become twice as rich in the night? Because its GDP and GDP per capita is suddenly 2x now in USD terms? No. The real story is, for those who can understand these things and see the pattern, there's an orchestrated attempt from a large network of anti-establishment types to fear monger and incite Indians to try cause political and economic instability in India.
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Kiran Rajput
Kiran Rajput@_KiranRajput·
@RamPatil158796 Sure. Sona, Kalyani - 0 qtys. waiting for correction & capital Tembo, Radiant - started accumulating now. May move in from watchlist & out of portfolio few..
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Kiran Rajput
Kiran Rajput@_KiranRajput·
In my last 8-10 yrs of journey in stock-market, whatever the expensive lessons learnt (eg. YB), last 2 yrs was the time to execute it perfectly. Thanks to investor friends & network like Chander Bhatia, Sandeep Singh & few others who helped me build/ modify the right portfolio. Hold 11 stocks, add 2 more, as & when I get them at right valuations & capital to invest.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kirubaakaran Are you still doing only expiry? I saw a few days ago you posted a P&L screenshot which has trades almost everyday. Just curious to know whether AI helped to figure out the edge for other days.
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran@kirubaakaran·
Been trading only on expiry day for the last three years now. My routine has stayed pretty much the same throughout. I never watch the markets during the day. Only login to the server if there’s some execution issue with my algos. That’s it. Rest of the time, I am doing things I actually enjoy. I watch a lot of podcasts. Joe Rogan, Naval, Nikhil Kamath, Mel Robbins are on regular rotation. Read books that have nothing to do with trading or investing. Mostly history and human behaviour stuff. That’s where the real edge comes from honestly. Shoot YouTube videos or write articles if I find any interesting topic. Spend hours on SSRN reading research journals and then test interesting hypothesis using AI. Build random tools for problems that don’t even exist, just because I enjoy playing around with AI all day. Hit the gym with my spouse. Swim with my kid once a week. Go on trips with family, with friends, and solo too. ME time is something I take very seriously. I plan it and make sure I get that time alone with myself. One thing I have realised over the years is this. The time we spend staring at the markets doesn’t necessarily translate into more returns. What matters at the end of the day is did you make money by year end. Doesn’t matter if it came from trading every single day, or just on expiry, or only once a month. We are all here to make money. If this also gives you the freedom to pursue what you love, that’s a massive bonus.
Vaibhav Anand ੴ@the_avid_trader

To all full time traders who trade only on expiry day What do you guys do on rest of days ?

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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@rohaninvestor I am holding saatvik. Same business available at forward PE of 7. Same kind of ROE and ROCE. PE is way lesser than this. Forward PE is 7.
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Rohan Das
Rohan Das@rohaninvestor·
Company is available at a ridiculous PEG ratio of 0.13 in one of the fastest growing sectors - renewable energy. ROCE above 28%. ROE at 105%. Forward PE (1Y) 15.6 3-year sales growth 61%. Profit growth 234%. Read that again. 234% profit growth. Order book EXPLODING from 6 to 9.3 GW! ₹10,000 crore revenue coming in 12–18 monthS VS current revenue stands at 2,336 crores. PS: Not a recommendation. Consult your Investment advisor. Join Telegram channel now with the link below or search 'rohaninvestor' on Telegram: 👇 t.me/rohaninvestor
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@saketh1998 Check the performance of all the markets from 2019 to now. India is second to the US. US is taken over only because of AI. All other markets performed lower than India. We ran a lot till 2024. Valuations are so high still . That's the reason. There is no problem with the macros.
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Saketh R
Saketh R@saketh1998·
Why is it that when the war is between Iran, the US and Israel, our markets seem to react even more sharply than theirs? Since the start of the conflict: US markets are down about 3.5% Israel is down around 6% European indices like CAC, DAX and FTSE are down roughly 5% But India is down close to 9%. And this is happening despite the fact that most global markets delivered double digit returns over the last year, while India has been almost flat, even slightly negative in comparison. It gets more interesting. Our currency has been one of the weakest performers against the USD over the past year. At the same time: India is still projected to be the fastest-growing major economy We have reported the lowest inflation. Yet the markets are not reflecting that narrative. Another data point: FIIs have sold nearly ₹10 lakh crore worth of Indian equities in the last three years one of the largest sustained selloffs ever seen in our markets. So the real question becomes: If the macro story is strong, and the growth narrative is intact, why are markets, currency, and foreign flows telling a completely different story? Is the ground reality different from the narrative we are constantly told?
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@Ashish1Nanda @kotakneosupport I have raised a request for RM change 2 weeks back. After so many calls and many email follow up, still that's not happening. What kind of support is this?
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@moneyworks4u_fa Don't cut them off in your life. They are the real motivators. Everyone in this industry faces this problem. They will come to you later after realising they need you more than you need them. Just hold on.
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Sandeep Kulkarni
Sandeep Kulkarni@moneyworks4u_fa·
When I quit the job some people in my close circle(friends-family) kept avoiding me worried that paisa mang lega, policy bech dega. It's been over 11 years since I started Moneyworks4u but I still get this snide remarks and sarcastic comments. "Business kaise chal raha hai?"(as if they want to hear me tell it's bad), "Tumhare line mein sub zero hone ko time nahi lagta" "Inke jaise risk-hai-toh-ishq-hai wale recession mein ghar-dar bhi bech dete hai." One my 'friend' went on to the extent of telling other friends that my kids(age 8 & 13) play with their kids to 'network' so that when they grow up they will get their business. 😂 I have stopped paying attention to all this and stopped responding to their comments but it hurts when it comes from people that you think are close to your hearts. PS: It's not all bad and there are many evangelist in my close circle who have been strong advocate/brand ambassador for me. But this post is because that video stuck some raw nerve in me.
Aditya Kondawar@aditya_kondawar

This is such an amazing video (in Marathi) The lesson is that if someone you know starts a business, support them and pull them up. Don't pull them down :) My Dad has always taught me that support is not always money - It can be even encouraging words, and getting people connected, especially if they have a new business!

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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
Because of government PLI schemes , manufacturing especially solar, EPC and semicon related has higher growth and profit percentage. Due to tax reduction and PLI schemes , it generated huge cash despite the huge capex. For nyext 5 years these industries will shine in India.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
x.com/i/grok/share/9… My take on the private banking industry due to IT mass layoffs. Might not be a big hit. But eventually it will have to face the unsecured lending slippages. Don't even go near IT and real estate any time sooner. Manufacturing has the high win chances.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotaksecsupport Pls connect with me only if you have doubt. Just give me solutions,if not please. Don't bombard me with calls. It's a waste of time and resources for both of us.
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Kotak Neo Support
Kotak Neo Support@kotakneosupport·
@dhanasekar_ts Dhanasekar, we understand your concern and we value your feedback. Nevertheless, our team will connect with you shortly and assist.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotaksecsupport @Ashish1Nanda Why does kotak have a much higher hair cut than zerodha? Below is the difference. Large caps -3-4% Mid caps - 5-6% Small cap - more than 10% Even gold bees have a 1% higher hair cut than zerodha.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotaksecsupport Did we come to any conclusion? These are very basic things. If you say something, I can evaluate my decision.
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Kotak Neo Support
Kotak Neo Support@kotakneosupport·
@dhanasekar_ts Hello Dhanasekar, we have noted your feedback and we will certainly evaluate the same.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotakneo @Ashish1Nanda Neither I could pledge nor I could unpledge these shares even after T+2, Kotak is not up to date I guess. I hope we have next day settlement. One more issue, I want to buy liquid mutual fund , can I do RTGS as my account is joint account.
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Dhanasekar TS retweetledi
Fundamental Investor ™ 🇮🇳
Fundamental Investor ™ 🇮🇳@FI_InvestIndia·
Dear @narendramodi ji Renu Chaudhary is a BJP councillor from Ward No. 197 (Patparganj) in East Delhi, under the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD). Please ask her to raise voice against Air Pollution, Water Poisoning & Street Food Adulteration. She should ideally raise her voice against the Government. Hindi is important but it can wait. I request you and the Delhi CM @gupta_rekha ji to please focus on bigger issues in the country. On behalf of Delhi Citizens who want to breathe, #FI
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotaksecsupport @kotaksecsupport @Ashish1Nanda Can you give me the timeline for this issue. It has been more than 15 days. Neither I could sell that SGB nor I could pledge. If you can't give me a timeline, Give me 13 L margin interest free until you solve this. It's so irritating to follow up.
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Kotak Neo Support
Kotak Neo Support@kotakneosupport·
@dhanasekar_ts Dhanasekar, we are here to help you. We will get this checked on priority and keep you posted with an update.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotakneo How come one broker site down for the whole day. I am trying to pledge securities from morning, still unable to do it. Never faced these kinds of issues with zerodha. Moving from zerodha is definitely a mistake. It's worth every penny I give them.
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Nithin Kamath
Nithin Kamath@Nithin0dha·
Someone on our team recently asked, "Why do we only offer Loan Against Securities on @zerodhacapital?" Why not personal loans or credit cards with their higher interest rates? The simple answer is we can't do anything different there. And our cost of funds doesn't work. We're at ~8.5%, while banks raise money at ~3.5%, and large NBFCs around ~7%. Can't compete on rates, and usually the best borrowers go where the rates are the lowest. Without a rate advantage, we'd only attract borrowers rejected elsewhere, typically those with lower credit scores. Additionally, unsecured lending means recovery agents, constant collection calls, and the entire process of chasing repayments. That's exactly the kind of incentive cycle we don't want to participate in. Also not good for the brand we have built. LAS is fundamentally different. RBI mandates a 50% haircut on securities, making it structurally safer. Borrowers have assets worth at least 2x the loan amount, so we know they can afford it. Lower risk means we can offer lower rates (10-11%). More importantly, it aligns with our philosophy: credit should be used only when genuinely needed and within your means, not just because it's easily available. Our real advantage is that customers already hold securities with @zerodha. LAS is a natural add-on to core broking, not an aggressive lending play. In most markets, brokers don't even need an NBFC license for this. It's essentially a broking function.
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
Zerodha for a trader is a sweet candy to a 5 year old boy. So addictive, I can't really stay away from it. I have tried many brokers. Nothing comes in that sort. Hats off to @nikhilkamathcio @Nithin0dha
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotaksecsupport Still this issue is not sorted. Neither I could pledge this SGB nor I could sell this. Then why did you allow me to buy this. I need you to provide capital for this amount interest free until you solve this
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Dhanasekar TS
Dhanasekar TS@dhanasekar_ts·
@kotaksecsupport Still the issue is not sorted. I could not see any pledged/ unpledged securities in my account
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