The Weasel

@planefag Was the nuclear program “completely obliterated” last June or was Trump lying? If he wasn’t lying than the uranium doesn’t exist, if he was lying it does. Was he lying then or is he lying now?

The 60% enriched stockpile as confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency isn't "confirmed?" iaea.org/sites/default/… The 60% enriched uranium far far FAR in excess of the 3-5% needed for nuclear power plants? The stockpile who's only purpose was for weapons? Fuck you, you little bastard. Posting and then blocking? Eat shit and die. x.com/Jasephu/status…

@leadfarminokie @cabsav456 So despicable himself admits that the whole thing was bunk, issues an apology to the people accused, pays a settlement, the producer pulls it back. But you believe it?

I agree with Fetterman here. A lot of people in the comments point out that mail-in ballots don't require photo ID. But that misses how the system already works. In most states, you provide a driver's license number or last 4 of your SSN when registering. Under HAVA, first-time voters who register by mail must verify identity (ID or docs like a utility bill), whether they vote in person or by mail. The idea that mail-in voting is a widespread fraud vector just isn't supported by evidence. As a personal example... In Virginia, my dad requested an absentee ballot but later went to vote in person instead. He was immediately flagged, had to bring the ballot back, and election officials verified & destroyed it before allowing him to vote. That's what the system looks like in practice. This simply isn't the crisis it's made out to be

@PrasVector @unusual_whales Genius, take Iran from being the only country in the region that can’t sell oil on the open market, to Iran being the only country that can sell oil on the market. At a premium price too. Genius!!!!!!

@unusual_whales Smart move by Bessent unsanctioning 140M barrels of Iranian oil already at sea to flood the market for 10–14 days and crush prices short-term. Turning Iran's own exports against them while the campaign rolls on. Classic leverage play.

Bessent: In the coming days, we may unsanction the Iranian oil that's on the water. It's about 140 million barrels, so depending how you count it, that's 10 days to 2 weeks of supply, that the Iranians had been pushing out, that would have all gone to China. In essence, we'd be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days, as we continue this campaign. So, we have lots of levers.

@vkmanoj @unusual_whales So you are suggesting we steal Chinese oil? Is the shit show in the gulf not big enough for you?

@unusual_whales I fail to understand this. Is it sitting there just for anyone to grab? If it was bound to China, can we just 'take' it?

@unusual_whales So let me see if I have this right. 3 weeks ago gulf nations were selling their oil on the market, but Irans oil was sanctions. Now Iran is selling it oil on the market but the gulf nations can’t. Is that right?

@glennbeck Because the reason couldn’t possibly be he miscalculated. It has to be that he is playing 12D chess.

After I saw President Trump call out Israel for striking the South Pars gas field, something clicked for me. He didn't join Israel's war with Iran because he was duped. He stepped in to control the OUTCOME of the war.

@johnkonrad Is the strait open yet? Iran has no hope of beating the us military. But they can totally fuck up the world economy

If we lost the war it would undermine him. Which is why the media is hell bent on saying Iran has a fighting chance left and the American military is losing. Unbelievable considering we sunk their entire Navy and our ships don’t have a single battle scar.

@johnkonrad Who else remembers when Trump was gonna be the peace president?

Who else remembers half of Europe laughing at Trump when he said America needs to own Greenland because we can’t trust Denmark to fully cooperate in a war?

@MackerelDon @HarmlessYardDog Yes the oil companies are going to get rich. Do you one personally, otherwise your price at the pump is gonna put a crimp in the ole family budget.

@HarmlessYardDog US is the worlds largest oil producer. We can get rich off this.

It’s a good thing plastics and fertilizer are made at the plastics and fertilizer factory and don’t need raw components from the Middle East. We’re so very fortunate, aren’t we?

@LouisWoodhill @JohnHowardRoar1 @radigancarter They could start seizing ships leaving Taiwan. For one.

@JohnHowardRoar1 @radigancarter There would be nothing that they could do about it. But we would warn everyone not to pay Iran until the oil was delivered.

Got the wife evacuated, so have time to drink a tea and think about the Strait of Hormuz. I've sailed through the it a few times years ago and done antipiracy operations in the Strait of Malacca. Maps can be deceiving. The best way to think about the Strait of Hormuz is a four lane highway, with two lanes per direction for the largest ships like crude carriers, cargo vessels, and warships in the center of the channel where it is deepest and free of obstacles. Then on the outside of those lanes, you have medium sized ships, going Jebel Ali to other regional ports like Sohar, since a lot of international cargo goes direct to Jebel Ali then is cross loaded across the region. On the outside of those lanes, along both coasts, are dhow fishing boats and all manner of local, smaller craft. Maritime trade crisscrossing this region goes back hundreds of years. The Portugese wrote how disappointing it was to find a tight network of trade already established in the region when they arrived in the 15th century. It is hard to describe how crowded these waters are. You sometimes wonder if you could walk to Iran across the decks of ships and not get your feet wet. The amount of traffic makes distinguishing between normal traffic and a threat incredibly difficult. Is that dhow fishing, transiting between coasts, laying mines, gathering intelligence, or a tender for surface drones? Hard to discern while sailing ducks in a row escorting a lumbering tanker or cargo ship. Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea proved to be a Houthi victory when a land power with no navy to speak of fought the most powerful navy on earth to an agreement. The Hormuz problem is harder now the Iranians have proved they have the will to fight, no matter how much pain is leveled at them from afar. The shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz go around the Musandam penninsula. This turn exposes ships to 270 degree of fire control in layered systems from Qeshm, the surrounding high ground, to further inland, with surface drones now added to the mix. Iran doesn't need to mine the entire strait. Iran just needs to turn that main shipping lanes around Musandam into a kill box and divert approved ships past Qeshm, out of the main shipping lanes like a watery weigh station. It has started doing this. The U.S. has created a hard problem for itself. NATO understandably wants nothing to do with this. If the most powerful navy in the world can't solve this, what difference does European navies make. With the watery weigh station past Qeshm, Iran isn't closing the strait to global commerce. It is simply doing what the U.S. does with the dollar, exerting power over the chokepoint it controls. Understandably the U.S. doesn't like this, so why can't the U.S. just send warships to escort ships through? Well, when you escort a ship through a strait, you tend to stay ducks in a row. So if warships are sent to escort tankers, they are now just another target in the strait. Even if the warships could maneuver through local traffic to screen ships, lets go back to the 270 degree turn around the penninsula. The warships would be receiving layered waves of fire likely worse than they faced off with in the Red Sea against the Houthis from essentially three directions while having the longer route to run to protect the tankers around the peninsula. As the Hormuz Crisis drags on, anything less than breaking Iran's control of the strait will be seen as a loss for the U.S., much like the Battle of the Red Sea was against the Houthis.

@Bilhash @shanaka86 Sure they can insure the ship and the cargo. The question is does the ship owner risk losing the income he could expect to make for next three years while a replacement is built?

@shanaka86 There is another clock which overrides all the other clocks which is called the sovereign clock. US and Gulf States may provide an overarching sovereign guarantees for all ships passing through Hormuz for their safety. That to force insurance providers to reduce premiums.

There are two clocks running in the Hormuz crisis. One belongs to the insurance industry. The other belongs to biology. They cannot be reconciled. And that irreconcilability is the single most important fact in the global food system right now. The insurance clock: P&I clubs cancelled Gulf war-risk cover on March 5. Premiums surged from 0.25 percent to 5 percent of hull value. For commercial shipping to resume at scale, insurers require a sustained period of incident-free stability before reinstating cover. Industry precedent from the Red Sea Houthi crisis shows what that timeline looks like. Houthi attacks began in November 2023. It is now March 2026. Twenty-six months later, Red Sea war-risk premiums remain elevated. Lloyd’s and the International Group of P&I Clubs do not respond to military press releases. They respond to actuarial loss ratios measured over quarters, not days. Even in the most optimistic scenario, if a full ceasefire were announced tomorrow morning and every Iranian provincial command stood down simultaneously, maritime insurers would require a minimum of 30 to 60 days of zero incidents before beginning to normalise premiums. Underwriters would then need to reassess hull values, renegotiate reinsurance treaties, and reprocess hundreds of individual vessel policies. The fastest realistic timeline for commercial shipping to resume normal Hormuz transit after a verified ceasefire is 60 to 90 days. More realistically, based on the Red Sea precedent, partial normalisation takes six months or longer. The planting clock: Corn Belt nitrogen application must occur by mid-April. India’s Kharif preparation runs through May. Bangladesh’s Boro season is underway now. Australia’s winter crop urea window opens in June. These are not political deadlines that can be extended by negotiation. They are biochemical windows defined by soil temperature, moisture content, and crop physiology. Nitrogen applied outside these windows either volatilises into the atmosphere or fails to metabolise in time to support yield formation. The two clocks do not overlap. The insurance clock says: even under perfect conditions, commercial shipping cannot resume normal fertiliser transit through Hormuz before late May at the earliest. The planting clock says: nitrogen must reach American soil by mid-April, Indian soil by May, and Bangladeshi soil now. The insurance recovery timeline structurally exceeds the biological deadline by weeks to months. This means that even a ceasefire tomorrow does not save the 2026 spring planting season. The military victory has been achieved. The enrichment programme is destroyed. The anti-ship missile sites are penetrated. But the insurance architecture that governs whether a commercial vessel can legally carry urea through the strait operates on a timeline that no military operation can compress. NOLA urea at $683 per ton reflects this. The market is not pricing a shortage that might happen. It is pricing a shortage that is already locked in by the structural mismatch between two clocks that no ceasefire, no escort convoy, and no deep-penetrator strike can synchronise. A bomb can destroy a bunker in seconds. An insurer takes months to forget it happened. And a corn plant needs nitrogen in four weeks regardless of what either of them decides. The planting clock does not wait for the insurance clock. The insurance clock does not accelerate for the planting clock. And somewhere between the two, the yield losses that will feed into food prices, import bills, and hunger statistics for the rest of 2026 are being determined right now by a mismatch that has no solution inside the current architecture. Full deep dive analysis here - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@crawfishremoul @Brad_Setser @JohnRoss43 They already are. The release from the SOR is sold on the world market.

@Brad_Setser @JohnRoss43 You are retarded. Is America going to send its reserve abroad?

Well, China isn't going to dip into its strategic reserves to help supply the rest of the world ... 1/2

@NajamAli2020 And you assume, out of their sense of patriotism, US producers will sell their oil here for $70 when they could export it for $200? I guess the government could sieze the means of production to prevent it. In other words communism.

Destroying each other’s oil infrastructure is self-defeating. The United States will barely feel it. It has its own oil. Israel is not dependent on Gulf energy either. But the countries of the Middle East will live with the consequences long after this war ends. If there was ever a time to set aside divisions, it is now. Fragmentation weakens the region. Unity and restraint protect its future.

@melluv27 @mkolken @atrupar Yes legal residents can get drivers license.

@mkolken @atrupar They cant lawfully get a driver's license either. They fraudulently applied for drivers license so bonus your signed up to vote illegally! Deport them all.

Lieu: "Undocumented immigrants want nothing to do with the govt! To vote, you have to first register. How many undocumented immigrants are gonna go, 'Yes, I'm gonna give all my information to the govt that's maybe trying to deport me. No way!' This is a problem that doesn't exist."

@jtd_gameon12 Yes they could enforce the well known law that says “ it’s illegal for congress to vote in a way we don’t like”

If the “Save Act” fails to pass the Senate, I want FBI’s Forensic Audit Division begin investigations on EVERY sitting Senator to see how deep the corruption is in that institution. At the same time the Freedom Caucus urgently take the matter to SCOTUS on the grounds the Senate is willfully ignoring the Will of the People and failing to secure our elections, both serious violations of our Constitution. WHAT SAY YOU⁉️

@jtd_gameon12 I say you are without a doubt an idiot.

@johnkonrad What makes people think US oil producers are going to sell domestically for $70 when they can sell globally for $150? Is the government going to sieze production?

What if the United States doesn’t care about reopening the strait for Europe? My latest gCaptain Op-Ed 👇

@Real_RobN There are over 6 million registered voters in NJ. You somehow find slightly over 50% turnout a problem?

Here it is: The New Jersey gubernatorial election — November 4, 2025. For the last 50 years, the State of New Jersey has had about 2 million voters, and the winner usually received roughly 1.1 to 1.4 million votes. Somehow, on November 4, 2025, the State of New Jersey had over 3 million voters, and Democrat Mikie Sherrill received 1.7 million votes. In other words: they did the Joe Biden. The State government of New Jersey has been toppled. Pass the SAVE America Act.

@C_3C_3 Or the current president attempts a multitude more actions that violate the constitution.

Roberts cries about hostility towards judges… Nationwide Injunctions: 8 years of Reagan: 12 4 years of H Bush: 6 8 year of Clinton: 12 8 years of W Bush: 6 8 years of Obama: 12 4 years of Biden: 14 40 years of previous Presidents: 62 5 years of Trump: 96 Judicial Activism.

@dantypo The mob used to do the same thing. Charge people not to destroy their stuff.

If nations refuse to help secure the strait, fine. But when we do, we should add a 100% fee to the goods on any ship that we scurry it. They rely more directly on it than we do. Fuck ‘em.