dodonpa

Day 536: Instead of betting on World Cup outcomes where you'll probably lose money... Focus on finding boosted odds. Sportsbooks regularly offer them to attract users, and sometimes the value is so good that you can hedge the bet elsewhere for a guaranteed profit. For example, my local sportsbook is currently offering 2.00x odds on France to score a goal. The true odds are closer to 1.13x (max €50 stake). Instead of gambling, you can: >Bet €50 on France to score at the sportsbook >Buy €6.68 of "France Under 0.5 Goals" on Polymarket Option a) If France scores, you profit €43.32. Option b) If France doesn't score, you break even. This is the type of stuff I spend my time looking for during the World Cup.

Back in 2016, I was working as an engineer earning $4-5k per month. At that time, it felt like a lot, honestly, but what I didn't like was that the only way to up the salary was to either work more hours or switch jobs frequently to bump up the salary. Eventually, I started investing in stocks, and I kept on doing this until the end of 2020. But still, I felt it was a slow route to freedom and really making it. But what really changed my mindset was when I met a guy from Twitter IRL. He had like 500 BTC at that time, which was equivalent to about $5m. It felt like a huge number, and I was blown away because he was both younger than me and more risk-seeking. My NW was like 1/10 of his, and I asked him how I could get to his level. He basically told me to stop being so afraid of going all in when I had conviction in something. In the summer of 21', I bought ETH for everything I had, at around $1900-2100, my NW doubled 3 months later as ETH hit $4k, and since then I've been full-time crypto. After that, I went deep into the ecosystems of Terra, Fantom, and Avalanche. Definitely a harder game now than back then, but opportunities still exist. Eg, the biggest airdrop of 24' was Hyperliquid, and for 25' it was Lighter. There's always another cook. You have to think big. F*ck the people who are doubting you. "Why would I aim for so little when there are people making what I'd make in 10 years in less than 24 hours with the press of a few buttons?"

Do you want to be in crypto full-time but don't have enough money to retire and risk everything? Join a crypto team. DeFi protocols, CEXes, funds, etc., are all hiring. Just a general piece of advice, if you are tired of your 9-5 and want to spend your time full-time in crypto while earning a salary. You get both the upside of having a little safety from a fixed monthly income + you learn a lot about crypto and get a big network, which will benefit you later.

If you hold USDC, this post is for you. Here are the best risk-adjusted yields you can get on USDC in DeFi 👇

The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the cycle bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here. Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027. It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation. A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not. So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in. The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position.

Think its undeniable at this point that @tradexyz was the most successful product launch in crypto in years.

In January + February it was gold and silver. In March + April it was oil. In May it was semiconductor equities. In June it’s $SPCX. In the months ahead I’m sure it will be something else… Are you getting it now? You will trade everything on Hyperliquid and be happy. Long $HYPE and the financialization of everything.

Day 524: New month, new portfolio update. 📈 Performance (since last month): -0.99% 📉 Benchmark (Total Crypto MCAP): -2.42% Small drawdown this month, which is completely normal. I'm currently testing a new strategy where all profits I make get directly converted into metals and held indefinitely. Still working hard every day and trying to take advantage of every opportunity that comes my way. Will probably reduce my activity a bit during the summer and spend more time enjoying life.

MENONTON MAS CRUSH NAIK PODIUM, EAAAAAAA

Digoreng mulu gw asu

ADA DUA KIMI DI MONAKO 😅 Kimi Raikkonen nampak hadir menonton GP Monako, di mana peraih pole position edisi kali ini adalah Kimi Antonelli. The real Iceman 🥶

Kalah sama kopling Xenia.

What just happened? The S&P 500 just erased nearly -$2 TRILLION of market cap just hours after 3rd strongest US jobs report in 18 months. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is officially down over -50% from its record high in October 2025. What's happening? Let us explain. (a thread)

Feels like I haven’t posted about Hyperliquid that much. Time to bullpost more to climb the ranking🐂

Wrote a longer piece this week on the “in-between” phase I’m in atm. I try to unpack what life and work look like after the intense “all-in” crypto years. I touch on motivation, what number is enough money, health, taxes/location, and a possible lean family office + venture setup. In this piece I think out loud about the next game and new goals. It’s mostly me thinking things through in public. One of my longest posts yet. You can read it here: theblackswans.substack.com/p/when-enough-…

Every important asset eventually gets financialised. 1960s: Home mortgages 1980s: Auto loans and equipment leases 1997: David Bowie’s royalties @0xZergs from @usdai_official talks to us about how compute is one of the scarcest assets right now and why GPU finance is inevitable.

RoboStrategy Portfolio

we are seeing the same pattern we had on ct back in 23/24 with threads « how i went from $1k to $1m in 6 months trading crypto ». today, it’s the same trend, applied to ai. « how my agents generated $500k on instagram with ai influencers. steal my pipeline. mds included.

Not $BASE, it's just @base launching its new AI MCP. AI agents can now analyze, trade/swap/deposit, and interact with Base crypto apps. If you're in the crypto markets, here's how to set up Base MCP with examples 🧵

Hard truth: Capital doesn’t care about narratives anymore. It flows where there’s revenue + growth. right now? that’s AI. Crypto only wins this cycle if it plugs into that flow. There’s one play setting up that most people are still sleeping on. thread 👇 — zoom out for a second: • liquidity slowly creeping back in
• BTC stabilizing, not exploding
• equities (especially AI) outperforming everything
• crypto still discounted vs traditional markets last cycle was hype-driven. this one is efficiency-driven. markets are rewarding things that actually make money. — look at what’s working: projects with real revenue → outperforming
projects tied to AI → attracting attention
projects with both → moving the hardest that’s not coincidence. that’s capital rotating into working systems. — my current filter is simple: 1real product (not a pitch deck) 2actual users 3revenue already flowing 4clear value capture 5distribution advantage most projects fail at 3+ of these. one doesn’t. — $DROPEE. not just another “AI + crypto” label. they’re building an AI mini-app ecosystem directly inside Telegram. key difference: they already have the users. — quick breakdown: • 13M+ total users
• 4M monthly active
• ~250k daily users
• $2.5M+ revenue generated
• multiple apps already live this isn’t pre-product. this is already running. — the next layer is where it gets interesting: Dropee Create → no-code AI app builder you describe an idea → it becomes a mini-app → you monetize it. if even a small % of users build? you’re looking at thousands of apps per year. that’s a compounding content + revenue machine. — now the mechanism that matters: a significant share of ecosystem revenue is used for $DROPEE buybacks. not vibes. not promises. a system where growth → demand. if the platform scales, token pressure scales with it. — where’s the edge? • native to Telegram (distribution is instant)
• AI tooling + monetization combined
• existing user base, not “coming soon”
• TGE is happening now timing + fundamentals rarely align this clean. — no guarantees here. fresh launches are volatile. but structurally? AI + revenue + distribution is where the asymmetric bets are forming. $DROPEE sits right in that pocket. May 27. Today. Market’s about to decide what it’s worth!