Richard Dominach
17.9K posts
Richard Dominach
@dominach
Son, husband, father. Technologist, musician, trader, programmer and profound jerk. Nothing posted is investment advice. Consult your financial advisor.
Katılım Mayıs 2009
88 Takip Edilen582 Takipçiler
The past 20 years that saw a 7-day win streak also saw the S&P 500 higher for that full year 95% of the time and up 18.8% on avg.
The only year this didn't work was 2000 and the tech bubble.
Stocks are currently flat YTD, which could mean better times are coming in 2026.
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@MarkRitchie_II So many technical bottom signs on daily chart. Looking good so far!
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Ok didn't technically get FTD on Nasdaq yesterday but accumulation the day before and NYSE had a accumulation day on avg daily volume yesterday. All in all a step in the right direction. I'm watching if longs can work and whether this rally gets sold into. Distribution (higher vol selling) usually kills the rally in short order if there's a lot of supply out there.
Mark Ritchie II@MarkRitchie_II
Nasdaq did have an accumulation day (I know not a FTD) yesterday but definitely a bit of a tip off that perhaps things weren't going to slide hard and that war escalation for the time being wasn't in the cards. Opens like this I don't do much and talking with co-pm this morning pre-open we just said 'no forced trades'. It can be annoying to watch stocks you want to own gap & go but I haven't found another way to manage risk then to be picky and when things don't meet your criteria you have to wait. There may be some folks who remember last year and thinking this could be a redux or 2.0 of the tariff situation where we had a big V bottom. Who knows, but I wouldn't swap discipline for gut feel or trading around news. The datacenter 'picks & shovels' names seem to be where the leadership is for now as a lot of those are trying to break into new highs. ($GLW, $GEV, $POWL, $ICHR, $MOD). Maybe we get some high handles or cap patterns but for now watching to see how we close today and if these names continue to be bought up.
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@AndreasSteno Think of it like a very cold day in spring. A winterish day doesn’t mean that summer isn’t coming.
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I am fully aware that oil-flows are not normalized tomorrow or next week
It is not the point. The market will look through that if the sequential outlook improves
Think of e.g. the spring for 2020, where markets improved even before lockdowns were dialled back
See chart
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Almost impossible to get the near 3% economy wide real growth rate most expect in '26 with real consumer demand running around 1.2% for the last 6 months, and that's before the oil shock even started.
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@Cycle_Watcher Retail bearish because their over owned tech stocks not doing well.
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Both Citadel and JPM noting a change in the behavior of Retail over the past month...
"Today’s relief rally brings confirmation that the shift in retail behavior that we have observed over the past month is persisting: retail moved from ‘buying the dip’ (e.g. this time last year), to now skipping the dips, selling into rallies, and positioning more defensively, report. Overall, retail activity remained extremely subdued this week, driven by net selling in single stocks and weak ETF purchases. Even more so today, despite oil posting its largest decline since 2020 and VIX breaking below 20, intraday retail flows showed no signs of strengthening." (JPM)
"The most notable change has been a decisive rotation into puts. Over the past two weeks, total retail put activity has surged to the 99th percentile relative to all other 10-day trading periods since the start of 2020. Call activity has simultaneously fallen into the 70th percentile (in just the 13th percentile versus the past 1 year). This divergence culminated in a rare inflection point on April 2nd, when more puts than calls were traded by retail at Citadel Securities – only the sixth such occurrence in the history of our platform." (Citadel)
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@SquawkCNBC @munster_gene Funny because $AAPL has no AI strategy or products at this point in time.
Maybe that will change in the future. Clearly they are well positioned for it.
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"The opportunity of AI is bigger than the geopolitical risk," says @munster_gene on why he added to his $AAPL position:
cnb.cx/4c32qYA
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This is a wild chart and relationship you wouldn’t expect to see!
Josh Schafer@_JoshSchafer
Interesting nugget from @MichaelKantro this morning on how to think about oil and the S&P 500 P/E: "If oil remains between $100 and $80 – we expect the economic and earnings data can continue to broaden (stocks can rise on higher earnings), but that could limit how much more equity valuations can expand (and interest rates can fall). A drop below $80 is back to Goldilocks in our view."
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@elerianm Irresponsible to act if you can’t determine what is going on or predict what is going to happen. .
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The main takeaway from the Federal Reserve minutes released this afternoon (link below) is not surprising: central bankers' strong recognition that they are operating in a highly uncertain environment, with risks to both parts of their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
Assuming their deliberations haven't already been overtaken, at least in part, by the effects of the War and the latest economic data—a big "if"—the minutes suggest that the FOMC is somewhat more sensitive to labor market vulnerabilities than to inflation risk.
Of course, this will remain fluid given how excessively data-dependent this Fed has tended to be.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…
#economy #federalreserve #markets #inflation #growth
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@EmmaStockNotes @charliebilello Big tech was crazy over owned and overvalued for so long. Coming back to reality. If they stop all the crazy CAPEX and develop some kind of sustainable AI strategy, avoiding disruption, they may be good buys some day.
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A lot of that reversal showed up in Q1.
Five themes defined the quarter:
#1. Oil became the macro driver.
#2. Mag 7 stopped leading as markets questioned the payoff from heavy AI capex. (Attached)
#3. Memory stayed tight and kept outperforming.
#4. Software sold off on AI disruption fears.
#5. Private credit risks came back into focus.
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2026 YTD:
-International Stocks > US Stocks
-Small & Mid Caps > Large Caps
-Value Stocks > Growth Stocks
-Mag 7 names all lagging
The Reversal of Everything...
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@alphacharts365 Look at all that selling! Crazy overvaluation really gets punished at some point and that point is now apparently!
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@RoyLMattox The war premium in energy needs to be eliminated before energy can stabilize and start going up on its own merits.
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Energy is a buy on the pullback. We haven't pulled the trigger yet but we expect to in the foreseeable future.
When we do, we will with $Xle, $Oih, and $Xop. These 3 can double in the next 2 years. As we mentioned before, energy is like gold $Gld 2 years ago. The question is do you have the patience to sit?
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Sounds good, let’s go with this!
Wall St Engine@wallstengine
JPM Desk: "We are moving back to tactically bullish. This ceasefire should trigger a re-risking potentially similar to the post-Liberation Day pivot. Breaching 7,000 feels likely as euphoria returns to markets, and a positive earnings season is likely to help boost equities further."
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@AndreasSteno The market up on bearish news is bullish. The market not caring is a signal.
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Kinda underscores the point I have made for days that the market doesn’t really care about headlines like this anymore
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@NickTimiraos I think all the political and economic uncertainty is going to keep the Fed on the sidelines.
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A durable cease-fire narrows the tail risks for the Fed on both sides, but it may do so asymmetrically: it cuts off the demand destruction tail that could have forced near-term cuts arguably more than it cuts off the upside inflation risk given the potential for a higher floor for energy plus echoes of the initial supply disruptions
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@elerianm I’m uncertain about all these questions, complexity and uncertainty. Luckily I can read a chart! 😎
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Explaining the immediate market bounce—higher stock and bond prices (lower yields) in response to significantly lower oil prices—is the easy part of the economic and financial assessment of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.
The complexity now lies in what happens next – the immediate and longer-term outlook.
I suspect that trading desks are already grappling with how to reposition from here, given the long list of questions that include:
Whether and how the ceasefire holds on the ground.
The transition of the Strait of Hormuz from a blockade to a new operational regime that seems more costly and clunkier than the one that prevailed before the War.
The impact of a fractured regional landscape where trust is at a historic low.
The likelihood of significant dispersion across countries, with some welcoming better security and room to maneuver, while others worried about the opposite.
Beyond the region, economies will continue to navigate energy prices that remain higher than pre-war levels, an uncertain outlook, and the economic implications stemming from the last six weeks of war.
#economy #markets #middleeastwar
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@SmartReversals The bounce clearly due to improving war news. But the big question is where do we go from here…
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$SPX: Is the bounce a technical surprise? Not exactly. The price recovered the 20DMA by the close.
$6,795 could set resistance, suggesting a potential consolidation at the open, likely toward $6,728.9 and maybe $6,689.3. Given that the price is bouncing from extreme oversold conditions, a complete gap fill soon is not guaranteed, since the 200DMA can flip to support, as on May 12 2025.
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@jimcramer LOL. Plenty of people did. You need to be a technician to have any chance of doing that.
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Let this morning be one more reason why you can't flit in and out of the markets to catch big moves....It's a fool's errand....I spent about 100 pages in How To Make Money in Any Market writing about how you can't get out and get back in....
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@BobEUnlimited Doubly bad for those of us not getting a refund!
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Oil Shock Erases Tax Refund Boost
While average tax refunds are up a little over 10% vs last year thanks to the OBBB, the 40% surge in prices at the pump have pretty much erased all the positive economic benefit.
bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/oil-shock-er…
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