Dominic Beirne

@NoverreMan Yes very similar pattern both mares.

@domran Evening Dominic! It’s a bright start indeed and I assume your numbers loosely follow that pattern too. But many more went with Usain Bolt for the first section than did the last!

TF* ratings from the starting point FWIW**

@FromBourke Coincidentally ATLANTIC JEWEL had 11 career starts.

@domran DB just for argument sake what rating would have Atlantic Jewel posted at her peak

IWS has matched-up the two mares at this stage of careers. That is, post Ryder win. To normalise the comparison, I presumed WINX’s Ryder was career start #11, which means start#1 was her Phar Lap win. IWS would have WINX by a head.

@davepband @J_Walter23 They’d move the barriers forward if they wanted to run programmed distance, since the circumference is larger, and your calculation 19m and 16m is about correct (if it’s a 90° bend). But they extend the race.distance to provide longer run-up to first bend for safety reasons.

Thanks for the reply, Dom. I understand - does this mean they're actually moving the barriers back ~6m at the 2100m, and ~11m at the 1600m, or something like that? Keeping them in the true position would otherwise result in about 2119m and 1614m, by my very rough calcs. If that's what's happening then good to know!

Wyong today - A 3m rail on the entire circuit. Given they run an extra ~90deg quarter circle bend from the 2100m starting point, how can the added distance (25m) be the same amount as the 1600m -> 1625m? You'd assume they're using the same strategy at both barrier positions - not moving the gates from the True position, rather adding the extra distance on for the wider arc around all bends. So if that's the case - wouldn't we expect it to be ~5m more than what is added at the 1600? So, more like 2130m (assuming 1625m is an accurate calc, which it actually looks too much to my eye)? Or does no one care that times will be about 2 lengths faster than what really happens in Race 5?

@J_Walter23 @davepband Hi Dave The 2125m start can’t be any longer because they have no room to go back further. The 1625m start is a reasonable compromise balancing: 1. the much shorter run-up to first bend than the 2125m race 2. keeping the integrity of it being a “mile” race.

@davepband Mate. Just trust them OK. They do this for a living!

@NoverreMan Dundeel’s year (Held at Warwick Farm) is 2nd-best Randwick Guineas for mine. VEANDERCROSS 1992 the best Canterbury Guineas (the Randwick guineas before stolen by Eastern Suburbs) since early ‘90s

@domran Winning margin bigger than the average spread across five and in fast time. But gee Dundeel must be close?

It took her 93.4 seconds to complete the Doncaster course today and there are 2,419,200 seconds in four weeks.

@idolhorsedotcom Terrific article Shane 👏

“Zac rides the race. Joao rides the horse.” Shane Dye breaks down what separates Zac Purton and Joao Moreira and where each holds an edge — from race craft, to rhythm, to reading track bias — ahead of the Magic Man's return to Hong Kong. #HKRacing idolhorse.com/horse-racing-n…

"An incomparable job, an honoured place as Founder" . Here's David Armstrong's tribute to P&I founder John Menadue as Armstrong takes over as editor in chief. He reaffirms Menadue's humanitarian bias in the search for truth and facts. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/02/4…

@FiddlesPicks 5%

Sports Betting Thought Experiment! If you could bet the Super Bowl coin toss at +105 odds, what percentage of your bankroll would you bet? There are correct and incorrect answers here! But it would need some nuance.

@RacingtotheMAX Good memories Max Thank you

Death Threats Beat Bad Tips: Confessions of a Tabloid Hack in the Age of 293 Experts maxpresnell.com/2026/01/23/dea… #maxpresnell #racingtothemax

@Bradmac120970 I think “sauntered up” is a bit rich. Yes he’d only just produced the whip, but to my eye Ninja did not look to have the same power he displayed at same point of race at previous start.

@domran Don’t disagree with the outcome Dom but well in the straight & all runners are entitled to a clear running. The winner bumps the second horse as it sauntered up on outside. Berry only just produced the whip when it occurred. Further the winner continues 2 take him off track after

Ninja protest Subjective analysts paid by pros score wides, bumps, checks, blocks, lane-veering (own fault, or not) etc Complex algorithms quantify beyond raw data arrive at cost I’d say 1. bump cost ~0.5l 2. veering 3 lanes, not own fault, cost <0.2l Pre-race I quoted 70% likely dismissed

@Bradmac120970 Such a bump as this occurs many times each race day, most noticeably into home straight as jockeys shift into the horse on their outside to get into the clear. This bump earns only a reprimand imo.

@domran Can wear that analysis but for Melham to escape suspension is not passing the Pub or Dom test surely!

@bmracingclub Indeed What looks a 1l check at 200 might score 0.5l if at 500 and 0.2l if at 1000m

@domran The bump at the critical section of the race when both at top speed as against a bump at the 800m Should this be a factor on the outcome ?

Let us #PrayTogether for all those who suffer due to war and violence. Today I particularly wish to entrust to the Lord the victims of the terrorist massacre carried out yesterday in #Sydney against the Jewish community. Enough with this antisemitic violence! Let us eliminate hatred from our hearts.

21 RIVER OF STARS 2 BUCKAROO In 2003 I recognised a pattern in $8 MAKYBE DIVA that emulated $11 DORIEMUS when he won in 1995 I talked about it on TV two days b4 Cup It was another 10 years before the next qualifiers turned up: $7 winner FIORENTE and unplaced $16 FAWKNER Two long shots since, one unplaced $51 and one runner-up $26. So that’s 3 wins, one runner-up from 6 bets in 30 years Both 21 and 2 qualify my system this year @Punters

@domran Hi Dom, miss your Melbourne Cup analysis. Do you have a view on the race you’re willing to share? Cheers.

Breeders’ Cup memory.

@LongBallToNoOne I’ve not seen that expression “in screw down” used this way Graham. “He’s not been screwed down” I’ve heard of course. I like it!

2yo unicorn filly MARGA back at Ritto and in screw down for the Artemis Stakes on the 25th 🦄