Dominic Beirne

5.6K posts

Dominic Beirne

Dominic Beirne

@domran

IWS PtyLtd. Bookie til 1988. RacingNSW appeals,Gr1 breeder&owner. A.R.C Tokyo, IFHA Paris. Invented Speed Map. Solved AUS deduction scale & HKJC jocks’challenge

New South Wales, Australia Katılım Mayıs 2009
422 Takip Edilen7.4K Takipçiler
Dominic Beirne retweetledi
Graham Pavey
Graham Pavey@LongBallToNoOne·
Wewantrock (JPN)
𝐊𝐎𝐍𝐓𝐄𝐍𝐀|𝐋𝐕.𝐂✦𝐍@Kontenasan_bf

This year’s Satsuki Sho was run on a surface so quick that the horses coming from the back were in trouble almost from the outset. That much is true. But I do not accept the idea that this automatically makes it a bad surface, or somehow bad for the sport. In most sports, elite competition is staged on the best surface available. Track and field is an obvious example. The point is not to make conditions difficult for their own sake, but to provide a safe, well-prepared surface on which performance can be judged properly. I think racing should be seen in much the same way. In JRA racing, fast times do not simply mean the turf has been made harder. If you look at the broader trend over the last few decades, the picture is more complicated than that. The turf has in fact tended to become softer, yet average times have still come down. So the old story — fast times must mean hard ground — is too crude to explain what is happening. What has really changed is the quality of the surface itself. JRA has spent years taking unevenness out of the turf, because that unevenness is one of the things that can cause injury and one of the things that stops horses from giving their true running. The grass holds up better than it used to. The maintenance is better than it used to be. The result is a surface that is safer, cleaner, and more consistent — and yes, that also means horses can keep rolling at high speed. If anything, the side that has not fully caught up is the human one. Training has to change. Riding has to change. Even the kind of horse people should value has to change. From a breeding standpoint, I see that as a positive, not a negative. I am not saying every race has to be run on this kind of ground. Deep, holding turf has its own drama, and as both sport and gambling it can be great fun. But fast ground by itself is not something I regard as unhealthy or unsporting. In many cases, it is simply what happens when safety, turf science, and course management are taken seriously. 📷kontena

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Kelly Marshall
Kelly Marshall@KellyT_Marshall·
@domran What sort of pb would AG needed on the weekend if she carried 56.5 in the Doncaster to beat SA? What likelihood would you give AG that she could have rated that IWS figure to win Dom?
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
SHEZA ALIBI After resetting the Randwick Guineas bar, she has reset the Randwick mile hcp bar with the highest “race rating” in the 35 year IWS database. From a performance rating perspective, WINX’s 2016 Doncaster and FILANTE’s 1996 Epsom are comparable. SUNLINE 2002 next.
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
@gilma101 I can’t explain it. The 2kg debate doesn’t account for it. The winning margins are usually too big for 2kg to matter.
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Matt Gilbert
Matt Gilbert@gilma101·
@domran I’d be interested to know your thoughts on why is it always a filly/mare that creates all these racing feats?
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
2002 All Aged was Sunline’s swansong, back-to-back world class ratings off a quick backup. The run overstretched the elastic band; in her final prep she was not the same I wouldn’t be confident Sheza Alibi would repeat in the way Sunline did. Theoretically though, computer forecasts SA with 2.5kg age allowance would win
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Turf / Greyhound Tips Aust
Turf / Greyhound Tips Aust@TurfTips1988·
@domran Dom, How did Sunline 2002 All Aged 1600m win rate compared to Sheza Alibi's Doncaster win? Just Curious.
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
No averages, no. Rather, a reduced rating per placing, taking account of the margin beaten, the weight carried, the age of each runner. Where “average” might apply is one of the earliest and important things I learned. “In this race, where would the “average winner” have finished across this margin-spread?” That’s the key calculation for me.
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Timothy McMahon
Timothy McMahon@tjm120878·
@domran When you do ratings of winners do you do an overall rating of the other horses in the field to provide an average. Yesterday’s Doncaster was more like a group 3 or listed race IMO, absolute walkers………look at the third place getter. Thanks for responding.
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
@tjm120878 I would respond if I knew what you were meaning. Can you reword it?
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Timothy McMahon
Timothy McMahon@tjm120878·
@domran Absolute rubbish again, when you do ratings don’t do an average horse rating for the field…….obviously NO
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
@SurfingPunter I didn’t have the full data of previous years to trust my 1991 / 1992 open company answers. The mile hcps he won would definitely be much lower race ratings. The huge weights carried would result in highly respectable performance ratings, no doubt.
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
@pauloliver9999 When it comes to Autumn Boy, a reasonable question would be: What price would he be if favourite not present. I can’t imagine he’d be much <$5.50.
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Paul Oliver
Paul Oliver@pauloliver9999·
@domran Saturdays Doncaster handicap - The bookmakers have the 2 x 3yo at the top of the market at x $2 & $5.50 and the proven solid WFA horses at around $17. Is the proven WFA form superior then the 3yo form until the 3yos have shown they are better and is the market wrong?
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Adam Blencowe
Adam Blencowe@NoverreMan·
@domran Evening Dominic! It’s a bright start indeed and I assume your numbers loosely follow that pattern too. But many more went with Usain Bolt for the first section than did the last!
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bourkie from bourke
bourkie from bourke@FromBourke·
@domran DB just for argument sake what rating would have Atlantic Jewel posted at her peak
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
IWS has matched-up the two mares at this stage of careers. That is, post Ryder win. To normalise the comparison, I presumed WINX’s Ryder was career start #11, which means start#1 was her Phar Lap win. IWS would have WINX by a head.
Dominic Beirne tweet media
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
@davepband @J_Walter23 They’d move the barriers forward if they wanted to run programmed distance, since the circumference is larger, and your calculation 19m and 16m is about correct (if it’s a 90° bend). But they extend the race.distance to provide longer run-up to first bend for safety reasons.
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David Pfundt
David Pfundt@davepband·
Thanks for the reply, Dom. I understand - does this mean they're actually moving the barriers back ~6m at the 2100m, and ~11m at the 1600m, or something like that? Keeping them in the true position would otherwise result in about 2119m and 1614m, by my very rough calcs. If that's what's happening then good to know!
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David Pfundt
David Pfundt@davepband·
Wyong today - A 3m rail on the entire circuit. Given they run an extra ~90deg quarter circle bend from the 2100m starting point, how can the added distance (25m) be the same amount as the 1600m -> 1625m? You'd assume they're using the same strategy at both barrier positions - not moving the gates from the True position, rather adding the extra distance on for the wider arc around all bends. So if that's the case - wouldn't we expect it to be ~5m more than what is added at the 1600? So, more like 2130m (assuming 1625m is an accurate calc, which it actually looks too much to my eye)? Or does no one care that times will be about 2 lengths faster than what really happens in Race 5?
David Pfundt tweet media
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
@J_Walter23 @davepband Hi Dave The 2125m start can’t be any longer because they have no room to go back further. The 1625m start is a reasonable compromise balancing: 1. the much shorter run-up to first bend than the 2125m race 2. keeping the integrity of it being a “mile” race.
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John Walter
John Walter@J_Walter23·
@davepband Mate. Just trust them OK. They do this for a living!
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Dominic Beirne
Dominic Beirne@domran·
@NoverreMan Dundeel’s year (Held at Warwick Farm) is 2nd-best Randwick Guineas for mine. VEANDERCROSS 1992 the best Canterbury Guineas (the Randwick guineas before stolen by Eastern Suburbs) since early ‘90s
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Adam Blencowe
Adam Blencowe@NoverreMan·
@domran Winning margin bigger than the average spread across five and in fast time. But gee Dundeel must be close?
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Idol Horse
Idol Horse@idolhorsedotcom·
“Zac rides the race. Joao rides the horse.” Shane Dye breaks down what separates Zac Purton and Joao Moreira and where each holds an edge — from race craft, to rhythm, to reading track bias — ahead of the Magic Man's return to Hong Kong. #HKRacing idolhorse.com/horse-racing-n…
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Dominic Beirne retweetledi
Quentin Dempster
Quentin Dempster@QuentinDempster·
"An incomparable job, an honoured place as Founder" . Here's David Armstrong's tribute to P&I founder John Menadue as Armstrong takes over as editor in chief. He reaffirms Menadue's humanitarian bias in the search for truth and facts. johnmenadue.com/post/2026/02/4…
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