dreadfulscenes

@Kierkegaarddd JG Ballard - Super Cannes. Italo Calvino - If On A Winter’s Night A Traveller.

A massive advantage in life: Being a pleasure to deal with. Kind when others aren’t. Calm when things go sideways. Reliable under pressure. Intelligence alone is overrated. Be someone who lightens the load for folks around them. People value people who make their lives easier.

@DefiIgnas Do you think this is to make way for the Base app and its own social features? Base app still needs an invite but will go public soon - in my mind it just seemed it was a duplication of what Farcaster was doing but Base app will have far more reach

Farcaster is admitting what everyone felt for a while. The decentralized social network never found real PMF. Despite 4.5 years of trying and a few successful adoption spikes. X networks effects too hard to break free from. Instead, Farcaster will focus on being a wallet first, social network second. >user signs up >funds wallet >uses the wallet >finds it useful >while using wallet user finds social features "It’s far easier to add a wallet to a social network than a social network to a wallet." - DWR “come for the tool, stay for the network” It seems the same strategy Base app is built on.

@onechancefreedm Very well written take. I wonder how much of his own personal cash he will let ride on this thesis once he's free of managing other people's money.

Why I Think Michael Burry Is Shutting Down Scion Now Let’s put a few things together…Burry’s liquidation letter, his depreciation thread on the hyperscalers, and his “me then, me now” Big Short meme and he’s basically spelling out one story. He thinks we’re in an earnings inflated, AI driven bubble that a value investor can’t sit inside without eventually getting crushed. In the letter he says it plainly “My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.” That’s not a I’m tired of running money line. That’s a man saying, I can’t reconcile what I see in the numbers with the prices the market is willing to pay. When someone like Burry reaches that point, the logical move isn’t to keep collecting fees and hope it mean reverts. It’s to get out of the structure that forces you to play the game at all. Then you look at his post on depreciation. He’s saying the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom that includes META, GOOG, ORCL, MSFT, AMZN of juicing earnings by quietly stretching the useful life of servers and GPU rigs that are really on a 2–3 year technology cycle. Extend the life in the accounting model, and you cut today’s depreciation expense. Cut depreciation, and EPS looks 20–30% higher than it would under a stricter assumption. He’s saying that the market is paying premium multiples on numbers that are, in his view, structurally overstated. Put that together with the “me then, me now… it worked out, it will work out” post, and he’s clearly casting himself as the same guy who sat in front of a wall of subprime prospectuses in 2005. Back then, he saw engineered AAA paper built on bad collateral. Now he sees trillion dollar market caps built on AI capex and accounting choices he thinks will blow up 2026–2028 as the depreciation math reverses. SO WHY SHUT DOWN SCION NOW? MY HIGHEST PROBABILITY READ IS THIS He expects a major repricing in the very stocks that dominate the indices and he doesn’t want to live through the last, craziest stretch of the bubble with other people’s money tied to his name. If he’s right about the under depreciation, then over the next few years earnings growth for the hyperscalers should slow sharply or even go negative just as the AI narrative cools and the cycle matures. When that happens, multiples compress, passive flows that are overweight those names work in reverse, and the broad market takes a hit because the “Magnificent Few” are the market. From his perspective, that looks less like a normal correction and more like the equity version of the housing unwind: a long stretch of fake comfort, then a sharp break when the math can’t be hidden anymore. Closing the fund accomplishes a few things at once. It lets him step aside before that break, so he’s not fighting client redemptions or daily benchmarking while he’s trying to hold deeply contrarian positions. It frees him to short or sit in cash on his own terms, without regulators and LPs looking over his shoulder. And it sends a signal: if valuations are this disconnected from what he thinks the true earnings power is, the most honest thing he can do as a fiduciary is hand back the money and say, I don’t want you in this. So, in my view, he’s not walking away because he’s done with markets. He’s stepping off the stage because he thinks the show has turned into something he’s seen before: a late cycle mania, powered by flattering models and aggressive accounting, that ends with a long, grinding reset in stock prices especially at the top of the index. @michaeljburry

@macrocephalopod Probably have a greater sense of agency and contributing to the business so feel happier

People who work in independent coffee shops are like 0.5-1 stdev hotter than people who work in chain coffee shops. What explains this?

@AerodromeFi @baseapp @DromosLabs Pipe on

Giveaway time ✈️ To kickoff the Aerodrome Mini-app launch on the @baseapp, we're giving away invite codes. Comment below with your @DromosLabs style PFP using the generator to get yours 👇 dromos.xyz/pfp-generator/

@blknoiz06 They've had these in the UK - Milton Keynes, of all places - since 2020. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_…

cali got these weird ass delivery robots running around w/ these & the new neo robot thing its like the first prelude to iRobot

@cfldotfun onlyconnect.skr

Who owns a Seeker Phone? Drop your wallet address with .skr below 👇 & follow @cfldotfun You have 48hrs.

@Architect9000 I guess everyone is gambling on idea of AWS for robots - no idea what that would like in reality tho

Really tried to wrap my head around the $AMZN bull case but just don't see it. I think $225 is precisely where it should be trading. Robotics are a great margin story for the core business, but I think that'll be offset in the early stages by lower cloud margins. Would rather just buy robotics at 50x before everyone realizes they'll be 15x companies too.

if I told you at the beginning of this year... - sbf is teasing about being released on x - coinbase bought echo for 375m - bitcoin to underperform gold - stablecoins would be announced as collateral for nasdaq trading - cz would be pardoned by trump - hyperliquid would have a $1B treasury company - robinhood, Stripe, Circle would announce their own chains - Tom Lee & Joe Lubin would buy billions of Ethereum - ETH would hit $1,400 then rally to $4,800 in a few months - pumpdotfun launched a token - trump would announce a Bitcoin treasury company - SEC is going to launch "Project Crypto" - robinhood launches xStocks on Solana - Bessent is creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve - crypto treasury companies would launch for 15+ assets - 99% of crypto as not securities - stripe will buy Privy - coinbase will buy Deribit you'd probably look at me like I was from a different planet thing is, all of the above has happened, and were only 80% through the year

Digital ID for every adult is not progress. It is the end of a free society dressed up as convenience. I am a cyber security specialist. This is my take. They are selling it as a fix for illegal migration. That is bollocks. We spend hundreds of billions a year on cyber security and yet the volume of breaches is breaking records. The threat is growing faster than the spend. Digital ID will not stop boats. It will not stop trafficking gangs. It will not fix a broken border. 
Criminals will work around it. Honest citizens will pay the price. It builds giant data banks that track where you go, what you buy, what you read and who you speak to. 
It links your identity to every checkpoint in daily life. 
One breach and your life is exposed. Look at Jaguar Land Rover and the airports in recent weeks. Now imagine that at national scale on an ID system tied to everything you need to live your daily life. Here is the risk that ministers will not admit. 
Ransomware seeded through a supplier or an insider: 
It lies quiet for months.
It rolls through the backups.
On trigger day the register and the recovery sets are both encrypted. 
Payments fail. Health and benefits stall. Borders slow. Citizens are frozen out until a ransom is paid or the state rebuilds from scratch. 
Centralise identity and you centralise failure. Do not fall for the pitch. Function creep is certain.
It starts as login. 
It becomes access to money, travel, speech and public services. 
It turns rights into permissions controlled by the state and its contractors. 
It creates a single point of failure for criminals, insiders and hostile states to target. 
It will punish the elderly, the poor and anyone who is not always online. 
It will centralise risk and outsource blame. 
It will not stop fraud. 
It will not stop illegal migration. 
It will build the machinery for a social credit system by stealth. If ministers cared about the border, they would enforce current laws, resource patrols and processing, close loopholes and remove those with no right to stay. 
You do not need a national ID to do any of that. We scrapped ID cards in 2010 for a reason. 
Britain does not need a central register to prove age or status. 
Yes to privacy first proofs. No to a database state.

I see ID cards are back. Many years ago, I had the inenvious task of being one of the architects of one part of last attempt in the 2000s - Enrolling the population. I felt physically sick going into work, and left the company soon after. A wise choice considering what transpired years later. This is what I know. First, enrolling the population. How? Bank records, not everyone has an account, Tax, the same, NI, how about Children? DVLA... Passport data. So, it will need legislation and none of this IT 'talks' to each other either. ££££ in cost. So, it will rely on self-attestation, this will mean that criminals can apply for a fake ID (and illegal migrants). Flaw 1. What happens if someone steals your ID? How do you prove that you are you? This is 'non-repudiation'. The data I have covered, so what makes you unique? Fingerprints and DNA. There is a slight problem, that's the domain of law enforcement, criminals and suspects. It is not to prove who you are. So, want a secure system, it will hand over your fingerprint. For what purpose? Flaw 2. Flaw 1 and 2 now make it an incredible target for Cybercrime. This is the same Civil Service that sent the details of 26m workers and their children's details through the post and lost it. Flaw 3. Flaw 4, data accuracy, no database is 100% accurate. Even it was the most accurate in the world (99.9999%), the details of tens of thousands would be wrong, back to Flaw 2. These are the major reasons. There are others. Most European countries have ID cards, they have not halted fraud, theft, and terrorism. If anything, they provide a false security. Why? The terrorists had ID cards. Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, Nice... Last, most European countries have a stricter interpretation of GDPR, their privacy is better guarded. Can we trust our Government not to misuse it? We get locked up for spicy tweets. It is a wholly false premise, a lie, deeply dystopian, and fortunately for us, it would take years to complete the work. It is HERE there is the uncomfortable truth. The current passport system is the old ID Card system from the late 2000s. Guess what? Migrants get a form of ID card from that system already. Why do the Government need a new ID card? It ain't for stopping boats. Thanks for reading.

@MoonwellDeFi jfc after 5 mins 70+ spam replies

@MoonwellDeFi when I try to deposit more funds into an existing Moonwell USDC Vault, Rabby wallet says "This spender contract may be a phishing risk because its trust value is $0." as funds are going to Mamo. CA is 0x364e805314d9bE3Dba7C541b81B4dEc03ee27FFE - is this legit?

An absolutely chilling account of Omaha Beach 80 years ago.

@david_perell Hunter S Thompson hand-typed the entirety of Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby and Hemingway’s A Farewell to Arms to get a feel for the prose reddit.com/r/writing/comm…

Just about every great writer I know has had the experience of discovering a writer they love, reading just about everything they’ve written, deconstructing what they love about them, and trying to incorporate something about what they love into their own work.

Isaac Miller posting his $111 $BTC video 12 years ago with a fresh new video by him with $BTC breaking $111k overnight! Waiting for his $1 million post next! 🔥 LFG ✌️

notable domains that are at risk: pendle.finance karak.network compound.finance hyperliquid.xyz dydx.exchange thorchain.com axelar.network vertexprotocol.com hop.exchange polymarket.com yieldyak.com

@Tim_4444 “do i tell them about pudgy penguins?” Majestic

Wife (w): why do all these people follow you? Me (m): they want to be rich and content w: but you always say being content needs to come first m: not always. First one needs the basics, and most need the excess of material wealth and money first to realise there is more in life. Largest part of crypto people have the basics though, otherwise they would not be doing crypto. w: so are more people coming to visit this summer? m: looks like it, but you are going to help w: me? how? m: you just show them the garden and sit with them w: sit, how, i don´t even know what to say or do? m: exactly, you are not even aware of your power, that is why it is so enormous w: you keep saying that m: because it is true w: so what do i do? m: just sit with them, listen, and expand that feeling of happiness you feel around you around them w: that is so easy...i always feel that m: exactly, and that is so so rare w: why? m: how many people you know are always content? w: nobody really, you seem to be, but it took you 15 years of meditation to get there you told me m: and how can you, a girl from a slum, since the day she was born basically always be content and calm? w: i was just born like that m: exactly, your whole family is a mess, and you were born somehow with this enormous calm power, incredibly mature soul, has to do with previous lives probably. w: previous lives are real? m: they are, not the ´i´,or ´you´ lives again, but your energy pattern dissolved back in the void and moves into a new ´vehicle´ if you still carry a lot of emotional charge. Tibetan book of the dead, you read right? w: yes, but forgot what it says m: ok, so just sit with guests in the garden w: ok, what if they ask me things, about crypto or inner work? m: just ignore it, just smile and sit with them w: do i tell them about pudgy penguins? m: no, you can skip that w: so will couples come visit too? m: yes, few couples are really at peace w: true, but we are, we never argue or fight m: because it was destiny we met w: destiny? m: destiny is when something feels so right intuitively, it could not have been any other way. Remember when we first met, what did you feel? w: the most powerful thing i have ever felt, like ´i need to be close to this boy´ m: same for me, and it was no chance that a girl from a slum, deeply at peace, met some westerner who was meditating there. Our energies are a perfect match w: so what do we teach couples? m: nothing, we sit with them, teach them some energy balancing, share happiness. nothing more. the energy practice for couples does most of the work if they are serious w: ok, sounds stupid, but we are really always going to be together, i just know it m: me too, it is so simple, the only thing to do is gratitude w: love you m: love you too

@nobrainflip GcPUYPA4DpsGyV71piRHfBY5tNPeA9NNSz8gYxsk69qh

Just drop ur $SOL wallet and make sure u're following me. Don't ask questions. Everything in its own time.