
dude
133 posts


@fundmyfund Also $CLF less clean monthly chart but just broke out back above all moving averages
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Steel showed really well early in the month - then sort of puttered out. Came back to 21 emas (or undercut)
But they have rotated back in again and now they are in day 2 of breakouts $NUE $STLD
Feels like I should be back in 1 of them


Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋@fundmyfund
All 3 of the steel names I noted over past week broke out today. I own 2. $NUE $GGB $STLD Beautiful looks on these charts. Anyone can be a photonics furu nowadays. But a steel furu - those are hard to find!
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I'm thinking of selling QQQ so that I'm not forced to buy the SpaceX IPO.
Is there some counterargument I'm missing, for why SpaceX is a good investment at a 2 trillion dollar market cap?
Ed Elson@edels0n
I read all 277 pages of SpaceX's IPO filing so you don't have to. Losses up 700%. Revenue decelerating. 107x price-to-sales multiple. It's a trainwreck. Full breakdown below 👇
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@TheBigBerbowski negative gross margin 🤮
I get it bottlenecks and all but they are gonna dilute you to hell and back
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Before your FOMO gets you to buy, think about how much $FCEL has run already.
While of course it could be a 10x and it could do wonders, be aware it's still loss making.
It could take a lot of dips before it gets (fintwit advertised) 10x.
Do not borrow conviction.
There's always a dip after a good run. Always.

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Anthropic just published a support page that should terrify anyone holding its shares on the secondary market.
"Any sale or transfer of Anthropic stock, or any interest in Anthropic stock, that has not been approved by our Board of Directors is void and will not be recognized on our books and records."
Void. Not restricted. Not pending review. Void.
That means if you bought Anthropic shares through Forge, Hiive, or any other secondary platform without board approval, you are not a stockholder. You have no stockholder rights. Your transaction is invalid.
It gets worse. Anthropic says it does not permit SPVs to hold its stock. Any transfer to an SPV is void. Investment funds claiming to offer indirect exposure are "most likely relying on mechanisms that attempt to circumvent our transfer restrictions." Forward contracts, tokenized securities, synthetic exposure products, all of it potentially worthless.
Their advice to investors: "Assume that it is invalid."
There is a multi-billion dollar secondary market in Anthropic shares right now. Platforms are pricing the stock at $265-$1,400+ per share based on a $380 billion valuation. Real people have put real money into these positions. And Anthropic just told them none of it counts.
This is the purest possible illustration of counterparty risk. You can buy a share of a company and have the company itself declare your ownership void because you bought it through the wrong channel.


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@EricTheUmpire @FatFIRE74 @ACapitalLP Claude seems to think DXYZ's Anthropic stake is safe - see the bottom of chat. That being said if everyone panics about this could not matter at all. claude.ai/share/0df63acb…
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@FatFIRE74 @ACapitalLP What happens in your model if DXYZ actually owns zero Anthropic and investors sell it to buy VCX at any price?
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I’m a “catalyst” investor so naturally most of my best ideas have been on the long side, especially around complexity and market misperception. But an old mentor once told me that “I have the mind of a short seller” - probably because I’m critical and can tell when management is full of it…
Problem is, modern short selling is miserable: meme squeezes, AI pivots, takeout risk, story stocks, retail armies, etc. I’m not looking for some company that misses guidance and trades down 5%. I want situations where the story completely breaks…
So I’m starting to build a short funnel:
(1) activist short reports
(2) deSPACs
(3) anything my contra is long
What are your best short ideas right now?
A Capital@ACapitalLP
How to Identify a Sh*tco 🧵 1/ Taking a completely standard customer agreement (likely done on normal terms) and spinning it into an 8-K “material event” to fake the optics of a major partnership.
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@JustinYRyu I'm long quite a bit of $LPTH but I like selling puts out to late 2026. High IV and I'm comfortable being exercised later this year. Good way to add and leverage time while getting some capital to plow into ideas. Sold Dec26 10 P for 3.2 today.
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$ASTS 14.8%, $PENG 13.5%, $FCEL 11.6%, $VELO 10.1%, $VPG 7.7%. 오늘 오랜만에 포폴이 열일함.
지난 몇주간 신규 매수한 주식은 계속 상승하고 있음. 매수가 살짝 늦었지만 그래도 짭짤한 수익을 내고 있어서 만족함. 주말엔 반도체 주식을 좀 더 리서치 할 계획.
Asts, velo가 오늘 많이 올랐지만, 기존 방산위주의 보유주들은 2월부터 지금까지 거의 쌤쌤인게 실상임. 여전히 굉장히 유망하다고 생각하는 주식들이라 계속 보유하고 주가가 하락한다면 추매를 고려할거임. 요즘은 많은 개미투자가들이 단기간에 높은 수익을 내려고 하는데, 중장기적 안목으로 투자하는것도 일종의 알파라는 생각이 듬.
$LPTH -4.3%. 어제 실적이 굉장히 좋았는데도 오늘 하락함. 심지어 장중에는 -10% 넘게 떨어졌음. 개미로서 시장과 싸우기 보다는 현명히 대처할 뿐이지만 (고집피우면 포폴 작살남), 그래도 오늘 주가 하락은 납득하기 힘듬. $11에 추매했고, 만일 주가가 더 하락한다면 더 주워담을 생각임.
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@fundmyfund You can't say due for some rest. The pump never stops. Have to get those engagement metrics up 😂
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This is crazy!! ;) STOP THE SCROLL AND LOOK AT THIS🥳 $AEHR $NVTS $INTC $MXL $MRVL
Some of the top performers in this semiconductor run from the bottom late March. Due for some rest people.
$SMH $SOXX

Fund.Drone.DefenseTech.Photonics $LPTH $UMAC 🐋@fundmyfund
Massively extended from 50 day moving average as well. I guess we could go even more extended but we are in areas rarely seen $SOXX $SMH $SOXL
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@fundmyfund I'll be looking for a pull back to enter all of this stuff on fire after $GSAT buyout
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@dude_abides7 yes it came on my screen Fri
It ran so fast I feel like I missed the entry there
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🚨 CHART REQUESTS THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
Format: Post the ticker symbol in response to this post
✅Only post 1 symbol per response
I will reply with the chart and then if you have another request please reply to that. No more than 3 stonks in the next hour per person
Please don't request a chart of something I talk about every day like $LPTH haha
Most likely at this point in the rally I will respond "extended as hell" or "it should have gone by now"
These are not prediction, just probabilities
GIF
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@fundmyfund Another one similar to $IRDM that may not be on your radar. $SIRI breaking out... spectrum is hot and Jan 27 calls shit ton of volume/OI
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@dude_abides7 I have spoken about this one a lot last 2 weeks, yes its a banger but its now a bit extended.
Best case for trading is it goes sideways here for 4-6 days, then we get a new leg up
It's got amazing relative strength

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@pennycheck Market front running a taco of Trump removing the blockade yet markets doing this is exactly what will prevent a taco. Everyday that passes with status quo maintained worse for all the shortages and bottlenecks.
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