ContrarianCapital

@StockBaron_ @alphacharts365 Updated the outlook for you. @elonmusk is going to shift most of the value into his holding company @SpaceX (through sweetheart M&A deals), leaving @tesla with ONLY a declining manufacturing business. Look at his shareholding % to see the future. @Tesla @GordonJohnson19

I bought $MU in 2010 at around $5 / share. Then I sold it around $7... and never bought it back. 👊

@Speedwell_LLC @GeorgyKuku Can we get a sample report before subscribing?

@GeorgyKuku Over half of the top 25 asset managers by AUM apparently

By all financial metrics Adobe is a high quality business: they have almost 90% gross margins with operating margins of 36%, revenues have grown double digits annually for the past decade, and they have little reinvestment needs with excess cash flows being directed to buybacks, shrinking share count 17% in the last 10 years. Today they trade at just 14x earnings or 12x free cash flows. The stock is now down 65% from all-time highs. The key risk facing Adobe is AI and the associated business model disruption it will bring. However, there is also a risk from newer players like Canva whose freemium offering could weigh on Adobe’s new customer funnel and point solutions like Figma who have lopped off a portion of Adobe’s TAM in UI/UX. This is all the while their CEO of 18 years, Shantanu Narayen, has announced he will step down before a successor was put in place—and their ARR, while still around 10%, has decelerated every quarter since they disclosed that metric. So how much of a threat is AI to $ADBE ? We cover all of this and much more in our 99 page Adobe Research Report. You can access it at SpeedwellResearch(.)com right now!

@sukh_saroy If this is a “muscle” how is it trained to improve?

expect nothing else from the @WSJ please update your CS and chat functionality. this is absurd

@cperruna oh I see, 2026 Net income and EBITDA? ok, yeah that's not going to work in valuing this type of Company.

@cperruna please define "fundamentals" - the company has several multi-billion dollar projects coming online over the next five years. As long as your valuation models are long-term or DCF based...

What's the affection for $IREN - $47.74...? Currently building a cup shaped pattern above the 200d ma, sign of strength, technically speaking. But the fundamentals aren't the most appealing... No position.

@firstadopter Question is why did Atkinson leave him out there to get destroyed like that. Are you telling me Strus and his manic D (over @JHarden13 sieve D) wasn't going to overcome any offensive dilution? @cavs @cavsdan you're not going to at least try it with Brunson scoring at will?

James Harden was Knicks MVP!

@MontyBennett Snap! Everyone can agree to this.

We’re now at 22 states implementing some form of SNAP restrictions on items like soda, candy, and energy drinks. Taxpayer-funded benefits are starting to look less like 2-liter soda runs and more like healthy groceries that nourish people. Let’s get this across all 50 states!

@blondesnmoney Congrats on this one. Made some money on these names in the COVID sell off but frankly lost interest too early. Took some major hutzpah to focus in on $CBL for sure.

The $CBL thesis has largely materialized. The company opportunistically disposed of assets, steadily increased the regular dividend from $0.40 to $0.45 to $0.625 (closer to $0.80 when you include the 4 special distributions declared for the rest of this year), same store sales and occupancy stabilized and are inflecting upwards, and most importantly, CBL extended and successfully refinanced the term loan which saw significant interest from CMBS investors. A portion of the refinancing package is interest-only, giving CBL roughly $30 Million in additional cash flow and extra flexibility (a property was released as collateral). The recent guidance upgrade, refinancing package, and consistently strong operating results have caught the market’s attention. CBL is up roughly 79% (inclusive of dividends) since entry, versus 28% for the broader market, 7% for the real estate benchmark, and peers such as Tanger (2%) and Macerich (18%). By all measures, the company has outperformed significantly, especially in the context of a higher-for-longer environment. The stock roared past my original optimistic forecast of $42, and currently trades around 6.51x FFO. The valuation is significantly below peers (Tanger and Macerich 14x) and while I could see upside to 7x FFO ($49) or perhaps even 8x (especially if we enter a rates down environment), there are several compelling setups in my portfolio I have been adding to, and I want to be positioned where I see the most favorable risk to reward. CBL is up 26% YTD, and as you probably saw with Nebius and other trades, I tend to be wrong when selling into strength. In order to make room for new ideas, I opted for a middle ground approach and reduced two thirds of $CBL position. As always, up to you to form your own opinion and conduct your own research, I just wanted to share my view.

@compound248 Sell the rip. Will be an epic rush to the exits once lock up expires.

The world has no idea how GIANT a position the entire Endowment & Foundation industry has in SpaceX. There is at least one major endowment that has a 20% SpaceX position and MANY others with 5-10% (on a look-through basis at $900B valuation). At $1.5T, things get wild...

@EricTheUmpire @ACapitalLP Thx yes I think it would be a grave mistake for a listed company to not have structured a $100M investment properly (either w Co approval on transfer to SPV or another legal loophole) but crazier things have happened

@FatFIRE74 @ACapitalLP claude.ai/share/d917c217…

I’m a “catalyst” investor so naturally most of my best ideas have been on the long side, especially around complexity and market misperception. But an old mentor once told me that “I have the mind of a short seller” - probably because I’m critical and can tell when management is full of it… Problem is, modern short selling is miserable: meme squeezes, AI pivots, takeout risk, story stocks, retail armies, etc. I’m not looking for some company that misses guidance and trades down 5%. I want situations where the story completely breaks… So I’m starting to build a short funnel: (1) activist short reports (2) deSPACs (3) anything my contra is long What are your best short ideas right now?

Sorry I Don’t follow you? Are you saying this could be a fraud: DXYZ board, management, auditors etc have all misrepresented their ownership stake? my working assumption is that both companies filings and public announcements correctly represent their interests in the private cos

@FatFIRE74 @ACapitalLP What happens in your model if DXYZ actually owns zero Anthropic and investors sell it to buy VCX at any price?

@EricTheUmpire @ACapitalLP I priced both portfolios optimistically to create my NAV estimates. Sure Anthropic can go from my $1.5T valuation to $5T but once it IPOs (along with SpaceX) investors won’t have to pay 5-8x the price to access those companies.

@FatFIRE74 @ACapitalLP Perhaps you are missing the implications of Anthropic's recent statement about secondary market shares and how that may affect these two entities very differently...

@ZeeContrarian1 As I used to say in the late 80s, “WORD”! I’ve seen that chart about next 10 years returns being 0-5% so many times and have been wise to ignore them.

We all grew up on Ray Dalio. To be honest, I even interviewed at Bridgewater a few times, which is a funny story by itself. And what I’m about to say is just one observation. The problem with these macro legends is that they sound incredibly smart, they speak incredibly smart, and most of the time they just end up disturbing your investment process. Because at some point they stop being investors or traders and become commentators. They’re usually semi-retired, managing reputation more than risk, and every time they open their mouth it somehow becomes one of the greatest contrarian indicators on Earth. A few classics. 2018:
Dalio warned about late-cycle conditions, tightening liquidity, and structurally lower future returns. Market response:
S&P up 31% in 2019. 2020:
Dalio warned future returns would likely stay low because rates were near zero and asset prices were elevated. Market response after the COVID crash:
One of the greatest bull runs in modern history. 2021:
Repeated warnings about bubbles, money printing, and expensive valuations. Nasdaq response:
Up another 27%. 2022:
Dalio:
“The stock market offers about a 5 to 5.5 percent expected return which is pretty low.” Market response:
The market bottomed shortly after and the AI rally began. 2024 and 2025:
Again warning that equity risk premiums are too low and long-term returns from these valuation levels will disappoint. Meanwhile AI stocks continued going vertical. To be fair to Dalio, he’s usually talking about long-term annualized returns from current valuation levels, not short-term market direction. But markets can stay expensive for years while continuing to compound higher. And the last decade taught me one thing. Listening too much to famous macro people is one of the fastest ways to miss massive moves. Ray Dalio has correctly predicted 14 of the last 2 bear markets.

@EricTheUmpire @ACapitalLP So far this is definitely true. Anything I’m missing here?$MSTR and $CAR proved that stupidity has an expiry date. But easier to be long with the momentum (than short with fundamental value) that’s for damn sure!

@FatFIRE74 @ACapitalLP This is going to end up being the opposite positioning you want.

@StevenZWang Not working yet!

@StevenZWang The most obvious pair trade today. Long $DXYZ / Short $VCX

Updates on $DXYZ & $VCX since last Friday: - DXYZ premium rose moderately to 32% while VCX now commands a very rich premium of close to 200% - Anthropic primary round getting closer to being announced. Secondary market transactions clearing at well above $1T - SpaceXAI + Anthropic compute partnership announced - should strengthen valuation for both Attaching my dashboard updated with today's (5/6)closing prices. NFA. YMYD.

@EnergyCredit1 Legend…

Why when you can 10x your money being energy and tech expert in AI trade in 2.5 years I’ll just keep traveling world and using my brain No oil wells paying out like this

@morganhousel One could argue that today's "uncertainty" (jobs, inflation) hit closer to home than geopolitical / war risk (which quickly is factored in at 0% probability); also generational/cultural shifts towards independence, mobility, etc.

I don't fully buy the idea that living in an age of uncertainty is what's driving the decline in fertility. The Baby Boom took place when your kids had to practice duck-and-cover drills at school to prepare for what was seen as the inevitable nuclear apocalypse.