Luke Nolan

@binji_x Great idea mate

Hey X, I have a bit of an odd request: My grandad is 90 years old, incredibly sharp, and has lived an extremely inspiring life. He’s witnessed world wars, cold wars, and tiktok. I am looking for a memoir writer who can work with him to publish his story. It would be amazing if I could find someone great from here, will pay well!

Most crypto tokens are hard to value. HYPE is different: @HyperliquidX’s usage flows directly into token demand through an on-chain buyback mechanism. Our latest research by Luke Nolan (@eazygambit) introduces a 5-year valuation framework for hyperliquid:native, built across seven revenue streams. Base case: ~$147 by 2031. Bull case? More below. Hyperliquid. coinshares.com/insights/resea…

@dampedspring Here you go Andy coinshares.com/us/insights/re…

Okay. I'll bite who has the most even handed evaluation of the business case for the hyperliquid exchange and the hyperliquid coin. Free/not behind a pay wall. Is it possible that someone out there is able to consider both the bull and bear case?

@CabronElBufon @insidecalls @tradexyz Ah gotcha - I had misunderstood the original issue then. That makes sense - not great then, agreed.

Did you read the quote tweet from TradeXYZ I posted as a response? Share count was a part of the original methodology. It literally told traders that SPCX market launched at a $150 price point, equating to a $1.77T market cap. The SPCX filings (which came after) said SPCX would IPO at $135, equating to $1.77T val. TradeXYZ assumed a lower share count when the market launched. Because everything was private minus total valuation pre IPO filings, traders make decisions based on the expected total valuation - and when the reference for $1.77T is $150 on the perps market, but the filing contradicts that, traders that longed based on the original assumptions get screwed over (if the original maker of the market chooses not to to aim to reconcile pricing). We all think these trading platforms (esp HL) are cool and good to use, and we want them to be good. If a market launches with shitty assumptions, information changes, assumptions are proved faulty, the market creator should reconcile that information and pricing (liq, buy/sell orders, etc) should be adjusted in accordance - an hour of downtime is all that's needed... it's not complicated. If this is to be a widely used platform that garners the trust of folks with a lot of capital, correcting shitty original assumptions should be addressed.

A note on the SPCX pre-IPO (IPOP) contract: TradeXYZ IPOP contracts are price-based perpetual contracts that track the market-implied expected price of one share of Class A or common stock. Neither share count nor market cap are an input to the market specification, oracle methodology, or conversion treatment. Our documentation had previously featured educational examples showing how a user might derive their own fair price in a scenario where they started with a view on both market cap and share count. Although these examples were included for context, we received feedback that they caused confusion, so we have removed them from the documentation. TradeXYZ does not use, publish, or rely on a share-count or market-cap denominator for SPCX or any other XYZ market. When SpaceX completes their IPO and sufficient external market data becomes available, SPCX is expected to transition to standard external oracle pricing, and the contract is expected to converge toward the public trading price.

@insidecalls @CabronElBufon @tradexyz In this case why would it matter? If the price was on the full share count, and now the share count is irrelevant the implied price/cap is the same. What am I missing?

@CabronElBufon @tradexyz Dumb of tradexyz Hope you didn’t lose too much money

Ethereum is getting harder to value. After Dencun, fees collapsed, but network usage kept growing. Our latest research by Luke Nolan (@eazygambit) introduces a 5-year sum-of-parts framework for ETH, combining cash flows, monetary premium, and network effects. Base case: ~$4,935 by 2031. @ethereum More here: coinshares.com/insights/resea…

Ethereum is getting harder to value. After Dencun, fees collapsed, but network usage kept growing. Our latest research by Luke Nolan (@eazygambit) introduces a 5-year sum-of-parts framework for ETH, combining cash flows, monetary premium, and network effects. Base case: ~$4,935 by 2031. @ethereum More here: coinshares.com/insights/resea…

Opus is so unbelievably nerfed today, it's like talking to a model from 2-3 years ago. What is going on

@LoganJastremski blockworks.com/analytics/hype…

Who has the best non-pay wall dashboard for Hype with revenues, trade volumes, etc?

@binji_x Long overdue

@eazygambit We have to meet soon brother

After living in NYC, then spending two years being nomadic, I finally moved to London yesterday. Hope to meet many of you soon, will be organizing lots of events, dinners, and the occasional pub crawl.

@CaffeSatoshi ETF flows are lagged and a single factor only, this seems just like an overfit model I would be interested to see the live results though

I have just created a neural network that calculates the Bitcoin price for the next 48 hours based on Blackrock's ETF inflow/outflows. Results have so far been positive, not 100% but backtested the neural net shows I could have 1.75x my Bitcoin in the past year by shorting and Longing without leverage to keep risk low. I will set aside 1 bitcoin starting tomorrow and use this neural network to try to replicate the results for the next year. I will start posting the morning prediction as soon as Blackrock IBIT releases their previous day data. Follow for more, but don't copy my trades they are just for educational purposes to see if such a neural net could help traders and fund managers identify patterns. Very excited so far.

@TheDeFinvestor Bitmine still has 1m+ ETH to stake, the entry queue is still massive, and that's not even counting when the existing US ETFs incorporate staking (ex-grayscale). I would imagine this ratio closer to 40% by mid year.

30% of $ETH supply is now staked for the first time in history. Interesting to see this happening despite the current rough market conditions.

@KyleSamani @jon_charb This is too good

@KyleSamani @jon_charb “Openly facilitates crime and terror”, does this only apply to perp DEXs you haven’t seed funded? One of the only models accruing value to token holders past speculation and you have the gall 🤣

absolutely elite research HIP-3 Silver perps are delivering tighter spreads & better execution for retail than CME/COMEX Micro Silver futures, and Hyperliquid is open 24/7 imagine being bearish crypto when we're just starting to beat tradfi at their own game Hyperliquid

@WazzCrypto Claude code

Whats the best AI i can feed a .html file into and can give me the best / most comprehensive css restyle?

If we assume Grayscale has already staked what they will stake - the ETH entry queue looks set to increase quite rapidly should the U.S. ETFs be permitted to stake their underlying ETH.

@IsraelSalmen Parabéns Israel e equipe!

Starting today, Méliuz shares are also traded on the OTCQX in the U.S. under the ticker $MLIZY — another step to expand international investor access to our story and long-term strategy. 🇧🇷🇺🇸

@udiWertheimer Lines up exactly to when the queue started jumping.

Its the unwind of loop trade caused by HTX removing 160k ETH from AAVE a few weeks ago that caused borrow rates to skyrocket (low 2s to >10%) and people to unwind as it became unprofitable Forcing unstaking from liquid staking providers Then also depeg on stETH caused arbers to buy and redeem for unstaked ETH at 1:1

why isn’t anybody talking about this btw