echojorge

Iranians inside Iran are doing everything they can to help find the missing American pilot. My grandmother even vowed to help ten poor children if those pilots are rescued safely. Read that again. People inside Iran are praying for American soldiers fighting barbaric Islamists. Does it matter what some liberal sitting comfortably in the U.S. says? Absolutely NOT #ThankYouTrump‌ #IranRevolution2026‌

🚨 I've been warning about this for weeks; a -20% drawdown. This is my last one. I'm not a doom-poster. I don't do fear content. This is just the most COMPLETE picture I can give you, and what I think the current situation means for the market. This is my view. Not financial advice. Not a prediction. Long-term? I'm still bullish. Short-term? I see a legitimate path to a -20% drawdown from here. And I think most retail investors are not aware of the potential on-going RISKS. Here's EVERYTHING you need to know: The Strait of Hormuz has been closed since February 28 and the majority of people have NO IDEA what that actually means for the global economy. Let me walk you through the math nobody's doing. The Strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. Through it flows: → 20M barrels/day of crude and refined products → 20% of ALL global petroleum consumption → 20% of the world's LNG, almost entirely Qatar/UAE This isn't a regional disruption. This is a global circulatory system shutting down. For context: the 1973 oil shock removed 4-6% of global supply from the market. This one REMOVES nearly 20%. Everyone says "Saudi Arabia has pipelines." True. Here's what they don't tell you: > Saudi Petroline: 3-5 mb/d spare capacity > UAE ADCOP: 700k b/d spare capacity > Total bypass capacity: 5.7 mb/d Net shortfall: 14-16.5 MILLION barrels PER DAY. There is NO REROUTING solution at this scale. None. Brent was in the low $70s pre-conflict. After February 28: +$20/bbl within a month. Briefly touched $120. Current brokerage targets for Q2: → Goldman Sachs: $110 → Morgan Stanley: $110 (rationing scenario) → Macquarie: $150+ if the Strait stays shut through April WTI crossed $100 for the first time since July 2022. If Brent stabilizes at $130-$150, the historical demand destruction level, headline CPI peaks near 3.8%. At that point the Fed isn't cutting. It's hiking. This is where it gets REALLY ugly. Goldman Sachs has the numbers. Here's what a 60-day closure does to US equities: $SPX base case: 6,300 → 10% correction $SPX severe case: 5,400 → 17-20% drawdown from RECENT peaks The S&P already crossed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months. That's not noise. That's a technical regime change. And here's the historical precedent that should concern every tech holder: Semis have experienced ~30% drawdowns during major oil price surges historically. Several Magnificent 7 names are already down 10-20% from highs such as $MSFT $TSLA $META Have in mind. I could be wrong. I'm only trying to provide the complete picture. But in my opinion, we're not at the bottom, yet. We're at the technical inflection point. IEA member countries released 400M barrels from emergency reserves to buffer the shock. At a sustainable release rate of 4.4 mb/d, those buffers are projected to be exhausted by mid-April. After that? No more cushion. Secondary price spike hits with NOTHING to absorb it. Rate cuts are fully priced OUT of H1 2026. Morgan Stanley and Goldman both push the first cut to September or December at the earliest. The Fed is frozen between an inflation spike and a deteriorating labor market. That's the WORST possible backdrop for growth equities. This isn't just an oil story. The GCC exports: → 25% of global nitrogen fertilizers → 30% of the world's helium supply → 27% of global ammonia, 22% of phosphates, 45% of sulfur Urea prices up 28% in three weeks. DAP/MAP above $700/MT. Food inflation is coming, but it'll hit harvests in LATE 2026 and 2027. The market is not pricing this yet. This is were inflation will begin to hike again, especially across the Eurozone. Then there's helium. Qatar is a top global producer. Helium recovery is a byproduct of LNG processing. No LNG throughput = helium shortage. Helium is essential for advanced semiconductor lithography. The entire AI buildout, from chip fabs like $NVDA to the infrastructure operators running on them like $IREN and $NBIS, has a Qatar helium dependency nobody mapped. These cascading supply chain failures take 18+ months to resolve even if the Strait reopens tomorrow. EVEN after this ends, the world that comes out the other side is different. The Ras Laffan LNG complex lost 17% of Qatar's production capacity. Repair timeline: 3-5 years. > Higher insurance premiums. > Permanently elevated freight rates. > Inventory buffers rebuilt everywhere. > Semiconductor supply chains rerouted. The Dallas Fed projects a sustained Q2 closure shaves at minimum 0.5 percentage points off US GDP, potentially pushing us toward stagnation. This isn't a shock you trade through and forget. Goldman's 5,400 scenario is live if we don't see resolution before the reserve buffer runs dry. Mid-April is the deadline. Watch it closely. I started investing in August 2024. 20 months in. Up 70% total. YTD in one of the most brutal markets in years? -0.5%. While a lot of portfolios are down 20-30% right now. I'm not saying this to flex. I'm saying this because the whole point of this account is to think ahead of the market, not react to it. Protecting capital in bad environments is just as important as finding the next 10-bagger. If this thread gave you clarity, follow along. This is what I do every week. -BP Please note: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.

In 2016, it was almost impossible for a Trump supporter to get a lawyer. Nobody wanted to do these cases. Especially when cities allowed Trump supporters to be violently attacked. Harmeet Dhillon was the first, and she got a lot of big wins.

SAY HER NAME: Kembery Chirinos Flores Kembery, a 24yo California mother, was reportedly shot and m*rdered by two illegal aliens, Gerzon Chirinos-Munguia and Alfonso Inestroza. Chirinos-Munguia was previously arrested for domestic battery in 2019 but California officials RELEASED him instead of giving him to ICE. Inestroza was wanted for ANOTHER m*rder in NJ at the time of his arrest. An innocent mother is DEAD because these criminal illegals were allowed to walk the streets.

@bowtiedmeathead Yes recommendations pls!

When it comes to a peptide source, I only recommend companies that I have personally tested, had a good experience with and have established a relationship with the owner who I can trust and send people too. Been getting a lot of requests lately for peptides… There are a ton of sources out there online today so finding a good one is not easy anymore. I also don’t believe in recommending just one brand. Think it’s very important for people to have choices… Ask me and I’ll give you my recommendation for a clinic that offers pharma grade testosterone and peptides, as well as 2-3 research online companies depending on your needs. Competition keeps everyone honest... More choices means companies have to fight for your business.

For quite a while, Peter Schweizer has been laying out the threat from birthright citizenship, which bears no similarity to the way it was originally conceived. I hope these data and their implications are being considered carefully by SCOTUS.

JONATHAN TURLEY: "The fact that we are one of the few countries that continues to embrace birthright citizenship is perfectly insane, and it is a great danger to this government and to this republic." @JonathanTurley

Now that Artemis II has launched we have 10 days to get everyone on Earth a Planet of the Apes costume so we can do something hilarious when the astronauts return 😁

The only way to restore rule of the people in America is to impeach judges. No one is above the law, including judges. That is what it took to fix El Salvador. Same applies to America.

We know nothing of this world

Dr. Jeremiah J. Johnston was once a skeptic of the famed Shroud of Turin, the burial cloth believed by many to bear a fascinating image created during Christ’s resurrection. The Bible expert said dozens of evidence-based facts point to the life, death, miracles, and resurrection of Jesus based on archaeological sources. And Johnston specifically addressed the Shroud of Turin, which gives him peace about the reliability of Scripture. “It’s the only artifact that we have outside of the Bible that gives evidence to the death, burial, and resurrection of Jesus all in one artifact,” he said. “And I’ve met many of the 102 scientists, and then the 102 scientific disciplines that have put their academic and reputation on the line to … prove — and that it’s the first time I’ve used that word — to prove that the shroud is not a hoax. It’s not man-made. There’s no pigment. There’s no dye. There’s no coloring.” WATCH: cbn.com/news/us/shroud…

Nailed it.

Solicitor General D. John Sauer to Justice Gorsuch: Children of temporary visitors were already excluded under the 14th Amendment. So if the children of temporary visitors were denied birthright citizenship under the law, why would you think a pregnant border jumper would qualify? If you believe that, get your head examined!

Today is Holy Thursday, the day the Passion of the Christ begins. After washing the feet of His disciples and offering His own Body and Blood at the Last Supper, Christ retreats to the Garden of Gethsemane. He knows exactly what is coming. The scourging, the thorns, the agonizing weight of the cross. The burden of every sin in human history crushes down on Him until He sweats drops of blood into the dirt. Before a single Roman soldier laid a hand on Him, the sheer psychological and spiritual terror of what He was about to absorb crushed Him so violently that His capillaries burst, bleeding through His pores into the soil. Friday was the physical execution, but Thursday night was the ultimate battle of the Will. This is the exact moment He looked into the terrifying abyss, accepted the cup of God's wrath, and said: "Not my will, but Yours be done." He didn't wait to be captured. He fought and won the war in His own soul before the enemy even marched up the mountain. In His darkest hour of dread, He looks to His closest companions for support. He finds them fast asleep. Their comfort won over their loyalty. Shortly after, the heavy silence of the garden is shattered by the arrival of the mob, the glow of torches, the drawing of swords, and the ultimate betrayal sealed with a kiss from a friend. Tonight, the altars are stripped completely bare. The tabernacles are left open and empty. The Church descends into mourning. The modern world continues to trade Him for silver, mock Him for cheap applause, and sleep soundly through the spiritual war. Do not be like the sleeping Apostles. The Passion has begun. Hold the line.

Chris Finch on Jaden Ivey situation: “Our country is going to Hell and Jaden's exposing it. The league needs more black men willing to speak on the word of Jesus Christ. I don't care if I get fired.”

Dear @SpeakerJohnson Do not wait for SCOTUS. Ask @timburchett to write a bill ending birthright citizenship. Get it passed through the house. After Thune is removed from his leadership chair in 2 weeks, get @BasedMikeLee to get it passed through the senate. We’re tired of sacrificing our American dream for every other nation’s carpetbaggers.

Great nations would never allow their enemies to illegally invade, drop a couple million babies, and them immediately declare that the enemy’s progeny magically have the exact same rights as the soldiers fighting to protect the homeland. That is not something a great nation would ever do. The acceptance of the Trojan horse offering from the Greeks is viewed as the perfect emblem of how a nation can be doomed by its own strategic ineptitude. But recall that the Trojans were tricked by the Greeks. Of course Troy never would have allowed the Greeks to enter the city had they know the gift’s true nature. Only a laughable nation full of morons destined to be a footnote of history would have intentionally invited its enemy inside to destroy it from within. Yet that is exactly what Chief Justice John Roberts argued by implication today during oral arguments over birthright citizenship. Roberts suggested that America—the greatest nation in history—enacted a law (which its own authors say did not apply to foreigners or aliens) effectively telling the Greeks they didn’t even need to go to the trouble of building fake horses. All they had to do to eventually outnumber and conquer Troy was make sure enough Greek woman had their babies inside the city’s walls. Why defeat a nation militarily when you can just slip across its borders, birth an army that magically has the power to determine who runs your enemy’s government, and take over the whole thing without firing a shot in anger? A great nation would never be so stupid as to do such a thing. And America never did. The 14th amendment’s text makes it clear. The statements of its author at the time make it clear. The legislative and judicial history at the time make it clear. A great court would never sentence a great nation to its own demise by declaring that an enemy can unilaterally make its own children full citizens of its foe simply by invading and bearing children there. And a great chief justice of a great court of a great nation would never allow such an absurdity to rule that nation.

Iran Update The President explained clearly his strategy in Iran and why he felt he had to act. He said that Iran had advanced their uranium enrichment far beyond their agreed levels and had advanced in ways that could quickly give them the bomb. We know now they also had missiles that reach London and Paris. (Oddly the Europeans don’t seem too concerned about this). He was firm that he would be wrapped up in about 3 weeks but also firm that if Iran did not come to the table and give up their ambitions, they would lose their energy and power infrastructure. This is a maximum pressure campaign. It looks to be on track given the results of the targeted efforts. Meanwhile Iran sent a huge barrage of missiles aimed at civilian targets in Israel at the eve of the Passover holiday. While many people believe in some kind of a two state solution, Iran has no interest in anything but the complete destruction of Israel and is clear about it. Just as they are clear about their designs on the rest of the MidEast. And against America. So it is no surprise that the Saudis and the UAE want the Iranian regime overthrown. Nothing like a few missiles coming at your country to be a wake up call. What is a surprise is that Europe, which needs US help with the Ukraine, (not exactly a US war) has not even allowed overflight of our planes as a courtesy is not acceptable. This was a major mistake on their part and one wonders what about their politics that has them defending Iran, the most hated regime in the world that mowed down tens of thousands of their own people. It’s an important mission on a tight time frame and so far the president and our military has been in control and on target. The next 3 weeks will tell if he can reach his goals but there is little reason to doubt him so far.

Congress MUST outlaw companies that sell US citizenship. HUNDREDS of companies provide BIRTH TOURISM for foreign moms who want US citizen babies thepostmillennial.com/hundreds-of-co…