Ed Porter

We know demand is coming, but exactly when is hard to predict.

Poland's BESS capacity market just collapsed. De-rating fell from 95% to 13.4% in three years. Yet 2025 saw record 5.1GW of projects bid in. The shift: developers are now chasing merchant revenues from day-ahead arbitrage and ancillary services instead of capacity contracts.

NEM battery storage jumped from 2 GW to 5.6 GW in 2025. As BESS scales from 5% to nearly 40% of peak demand through 2028, investment fundamentals are shifting fast. What's changing for project economics in Australia's energy storage market?

🎧 Transmission: Tax insurance is quietly reshaping energy project finance. It lets developers transfer IRS risk from tax credits to insurers, unlocking billions in deals. youtube.com/watch?v=v8BJxJ…

🎧 Transmission: The power grid is becoming harder to forecast. With more renewables, extreme weather, and data centers reshaping demand, basic predictions aren't enough. youtube.com/watch?v=jJHNXB…

🎧 Transmission: How do major renewable operators decide what clean energy projects get built? Lolita Carry from Engie explains how they navigate a 20GW pipeline across ERCOT, PJM, MISO, and CAISO. Learn what shapes investment decisions ... youtube.com/watch?v=Co9xxi…

Germany: 4-hour batteries hitting 13.7% unlevered IRR for 2026 COD, outperforming 2-hour systems despite 34% higher capex. But 700 GW queued against 2.5 GW connected. Fundamental risks can compress returns below investor hurdle rates.

MISO Cycle 3: All eight battery projects are utility-owned/backed, totaling 2.3 GW. Batteries now core grid resources. But ERAS sunsets in 2027 with no extension planned—projects then face three-year studies.

@KateFantom @jonburkeUK Small note, I don’t think it is still as high as 98% Expect reductions as storage, renewables increase the number of hours the gas fleet is turned off. This will reduce costs to consumers.

The current wholesale cost of electricity is -9p/kWh. However, gas sets the price in the UK 98% of the time. So that 4% stitches us all up. Gas will not bring down your energy bills, decoupling electricity from gas will. Gas will not reduce emissions, renewables will.

NEW: Why does gas set the price of electricity – and is there an alternative? Make yourself a tea (or grab a beer??) and enjoy my Friday longread on marginal pricing, ideas for market reform – & how to break the link btwn gas & power prices for good carbonbrief.org/qa-why-does-ga… 1/8

France's aFRR market sees summer evening upward reserve needs peak at 1,500 MW, double the winter peak, due to renewables ramp-up after negative price episodes. This aligns well with battery operation.

France's battery fleet passes 1.5 GW, reshaping the aFRR capacity market. Recent reforms like 15-min gates boost asset utilization, shifting the focus to optimization.

🎧 Transmission: What makes a BESS project bankable in Germany? Banks evaluate regulatory risk, grid connection, and offtake to determine financiability. youtube.com/watch?v=0jvSM4…

Great Britain's 2026/27 T-1 Capacity Market auction cleared at £5/kW/yr, the lowest since 2020/21. This indicates strong competitiveness in the GB energy market.