Jesse

26.9K posts

Jesse

Jesse

@Ember421

Process engineer. Energy, infrastructure, industrial decarbonisation, P(🌎net0|☢️📉) less than P(🌎net0|☢️📈). Views my own. Ember42 at m**https://t.co/I5egdcoNEx or BS

Ontario, Canada Katılım Kasım 2018
1.3K Takip Edilen1.6K Takipçiler
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Jesse
Jesse@Ember421·
I have been playing around with an interesting concept here - the tradeoff curves of capacity vs storage. First for a completely clean + storage system. This is what we need for Ontario for a no FF system, assuming starting from scratch for clarity.
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Jesse@Ember421·
@humantransit Split the difference, all go to a 30 min offset!
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Jesse@Ember421·
@DIYinvestor @bruceanderson Or, more conventionally, stand up a separatist party first, then win an election, and only then call a referendum…
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Marc Ryan
Marc Ryan@DIYinvestor·
@bruceanderson Let Alberta hold its referendum. Whether they are 20% or 40% of voters favoring Alberta sovereignty, they are entitled to representation in the legislature (no party currently represents them) and holding a referendum in which they can vote for their option.
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Jesse@Ember421·
@unclepete_100 People can’t tell the difference between a sensitivity case scenario and a projection, so we can’t have nice things…
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🖐🏻Pete (failed solar entrepreneur) Bergs
…uuuh, not a forecast, it’s a scenario… It acts as a “what-if”……
Peter Clack@PeterDClack

The IPCC has now explicitly acknowledged that their own forecast of a 5°C future driven by human emissions is no longer credible. It is the baseline trajectory of our world 'no longer'. This dire forecast was quietly dropped because human energy systems changed faster than the old models thought possible. Over the last two decades, trillions of dollars in capital allocation, global treaties, national regulatory frameworks, and corporate ESG metrics have been anchored to a one-dimensional climate model. That model says bluntly: we are headed down a species-ending climate black hole. But as technical experts increasingly point out, the extreme catastrophe scenarios used to justify these sweeping economic changes are actually highly implausible. They create a massive belief gap and an erosion of authority. Why should anyone believe the sweeping mandates just because 'they say so?' The picture remains muddy because the IPCC writes by massive consensus, which blurs their language. It is indecipherable to almost everyone. They won't use a blunt word like 'implausible' in their public summaries because they want to guard against unexpected Earth-system feedbacks—meaning us. To maintain political and financial momentum, it is much easier for the IPCC to quietly reclassify its worst-case scenario as a low-likelihood 'stress test' in the fine print. Yet it's keeping the public-facing rhetoric largely unchanged. They stopped short of calling these futures completely impossible. Instead, they changed how those scenarios are meant to be used, moving them from 'business-as-usual' to extreme high-risk outliers. The scientific community is moving to confirm this lack of clarity. Climate scientists designing the next generation of models for the upcoming IPCC Seventh Assessment Report have openly discussed dropping the old extreme scenarios because real-world trends have made them indefensible. Instead, the technical focus is shifting to a new baseline that peaks much lower, around 3°C to 3.5°C, even under a hypothetical rollback of clean energy policies. The public narrative still lags behind this technical realisation—the institutional river keeps coasting on the momentum of the older, hotter models. In other words, they refuse to openly admit it. When a policy goal transforms from a flexible, data-driven scientific inquiry into a rigid moral directive, it stops reacting to new evidence. If the 1.5°C or 2°C targets are treated as absolute baselines, then admitting they were calculated using flawed or overly pessimistic assumptions threatens the entire administrative structure built to police them. It creates a strange paradox: the data says the extreme 5°C future is off the table because global energy dynamics changed. Yet the bureaucracy insists the crisis is more urgent than ever, and the mechanisms must remain in place. Nothing is clearly stated anymore. When the language of science is adopted by a centralised bureaucracy, clarity is the first casualty. It was replaced by consensus-driven wording designed to protect the institution's mandate rather than reflect shifting real-world data. The original assumptions diverged significantly from reality. Specifically, those old 5°C models wrongly assumed there would be a five-fold expansion of coal use through 2100, effectively replacing other forms of energy with coal. Real-world exponential growth in solar, wind and electric vehicle adoption, alongside tightening global policies, made that massive pivot back to coal an impossibility. The bureaucracy simply exploits fear of natural feedbacks to justify keeping a human-emission model they already know is broken.

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Jesse
Jesse@Ember421·
@sabouring1 @DominicCardy They have also demonstrated that for drones, the production capacity is the platform. That may be a more useful area for us to focus on.
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sabstock
sabstock@sabouring1·
@DominicCardy The Ukraine war has demonstrated the usefulness of possessing deep stocks of what was considered obsolete weapons. I dont think you should consider Canada starting with a limited inventory as sone sort of advantage.
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Dominic Cardy 🇨🇦 🇺🇦 🇹🇼
Canada, pay attention. A rare advantage of having been so negligent in our own defence is we can skip to embrace this new technology. Work with Ukraine. Make this Canada's specialty.
Tymofiy Mylovanov@Mylovanov

Petraeus: The U.S. has not remotely learned the lessons it should from Ukraine. This is the future of war: Ukraine alone uses 10,000 drones a day, and 90% of Russian casualties are caused by drones. That should force institutional change. 1/

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Jesse@Ember421·
@LatinMilAv Every armoured vehicle needs to become an anti-drone bastion. Some form of small automated turret, with say lidar guided MG's or small missiles.
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Jesse@Ember421·
@nanomysou @Phrankensteyn It's a great argument where peak demand is for cooling, even when heating is fully electrified. Actually adds substantial capacity value then. When heating is peak, it's mostly fuel saving, so it really depends what's otherwise on the margin at peak cooling times...
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Nanomysou
Nanomysou@nanomysou·
@Phrankensteyn AC is also a great argument for roof PV, for a lot of people that don't work from home it's not a clear cut if they can make back the money saved in electricity (because they're working), but paired with AC that could work as a thermal battery, cool down lower during peak power
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Aeneas
Aeneas@Phrankensteyn·
ACs don't have the exact same usage profile as PV power plants, but it's reasonably close. So use it in a healthy way, but use it. And healthy means reducing the indoor temperature to maybe 23° C but not 18° C or less.
Ole Lehmann@itsolelehmann

people don't understand HOW MUCH the average german person hates ACs my parents would rather burn to a crisp than turn on the AC it is mindboggling propaganda with severe health implications especially for elderly people

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Jesse@Ember421·
@Elektronews Haha. Commercial solar panels are ~25% efficient. They just defined the 'counted' energy on an output basis, rather than input basis. The accounting error at the root of the 'primary energy fallacy'...
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Jesse
Jesse@Ember421·
@EnviWood @tadbartkiewicz You can get sulphuric acid (or recycle it) from non-O&G sources, but it requires a lot more capital and/or energy input. And we don't have the physical plant to do a lot of that yet. Getting alternative actual sulphur is a lot harder.
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Paul Lumberjack
Paul Lumberjack@EnviWood·
@tadbartkiewicz And sulfuric acid to process that copper. Roughly 92% of global sulfur comes from refining. You need the hydrocarbons to get the metals.
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Romy
Romy@Romy_Holland·
it’s weird that every culture uses the same timekeeping. i know there have been other calendar systems, but everyone settled on 24 hour days and 60 minute hours and 60 second minutes. these are weird numbers! why didn’t anyone implement metric timekeeping?
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Jesse@Ember421·
@ipadipad1900 @csiroperfidy Except those 'Firm PV' systems unavoidably all have their '10-20%' shortfalls at the same time, and the depth of that shortfall can be >>50% from nominal. You can't schedule the unavailability time.
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stopputler
stopputler@ipadipad1900·
@csiroperfidy Judging by the timeframe from tender to operation, 12-20 years versus 0.5-2 years. You simply build four times the capacity, each backed by batteries, and get the same 80-90% capacity factor, only 2-10 times faster and cheaper.
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Geoff Russell Ⓥ
Geoff Russell Ⓥ@csiroperfidy·
A 1,000 MW nuclear plant produces 90% of the time (maintenance and fuel reloading 10%); 1,000 x 0.9 x 24 x 365 = 7.8 million MWh of energy annually. A 1,000 MW solar farm produces energy about 25% of the time 1,000 x 0.25 x 24 x 365 = 2.1 million MWh/year & it fails every night
Chris Meder@EVCurveFuturist

We don’t need to replace 600 EJ of fossil energy. We need to stop wasting it. Fossil systems lose ~2/3 as heat. Electrification delivers energy directly into work, cutting total demand ~40–50%. The transition isn’t bigger than we think. It’s smaller. #SWB evcurvefuturist.com/2025/05/the-pr…

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Jesse@Ember421·
@bataille_chris Heavy oil is a lot easier ro make into a certain set of chemcials. But making the pipeline methanol compatible materials upfront would be good future proofing. On the evap point, yes, hence the northern route is not going to happen...
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Chris Bataille
Chris Bataille@bataille_chris·
One thing missing from the west coast pipeline debate is while we’ll need a shippable energy dense liquid to balance global needs for decades+, ideally a C carrier for chem feedstocks, methanol & LNG are better for this & both cleanly evaporate if spilled, unlike dilbit crude oil
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Jesse@Ember421·
@wonk_blog Going in the other direction, I would be pretty happy with keeping single districts, but making it all approval voting. In that case the party leader should be selected by the elected candidates...
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Jesse@Ember421·
@wonk_blog What's 'range', and where is this from?
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Jesse
Jesse@Ember421·
Proportional Representation: I have my misgivings about further centralization of power in the leadership, loss of local representation, and tendency towards extreemism. I think I found a version I can get behind!
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Jesse
Jesse@Ember421·
For single member districts and for by-elections voting should be via approval voting (for simplicity) or via ranked ballot. As an alternative, could do approval voting within a list, but only vote for one list.
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Jesse
Jesse@Ember421·
- Single vote avoids complexity -Counting method is straight forward with no massive revisions on recounts (generally will only impact the final seat / final list member)
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