Jesse

I have been playing around with an interesting concept here - the tradeoff curves of capacity vs storage. First for a completely clean + storage system. This is what we need for Ontario for a no FF system, assuming starting from scratch for clarity.

@SwenRoschlau The NG quantity used should be set based on regional availability, and the energy strategy selected should take that into account. Not also that pipeline gas is a terrible fit for 'pulse' use. If industry is electrified, there will not be the base floor to ride power on.

@SwenRoschlau Note also, while this will reduce gas consumption, the global supply level will adjust to this and there still won't be much spare capacity (especially for LNG). By it's nature, a LNG supply constraint will always be a crisis.

Intermittent renewables means you are trapped w/ natural gas as backup. Even Spain. As Europe doesn't want to frack & can't compete w/ Chinese commoditization of PV, wind, batteries, we will not reach a relevant level of resilience, hence, stay vulnerable. Let us get real, folks.

@PassCombo @Object_Zero_ They often are fueled by the boil off gas. Literally burning the product. Same with the compressors for liquifaction, typically driven by a gas fired gas turbine.

@Ember421 @Object_Zero_ Transforming use energy but if done before the only cost is transport, which rise costs destroying value but not the gas itself.

Energy Policy Outlook Renewables don’t really compete with oil, but they do compete with gas. Gas is not priced internationally, it’s priced locally. Transporting it far destroys a large fraction of it, so it’s only shipped when large arbitrage exists. Oil is priced internationally and is easy to transport huge volumes in a stable manner. Energy is a complex space, which is why there are so many conspiracies and poor understanding of the basics. Lots of complexity and nuance for strong hyperlocalised opinions to form and stick. Many countries have laypeople with strong political opinions on the matter, and in democratic countries that introduces policies that are usually counterproductive to the economy and the environment. The best energy policy is to have some sort of social cost enforced to represent the environmental cost to wider society, where environmental burdens exist, and then to have a free and open market on top of that. Pretty standard regulated market stuff. The challenge is that it has so far been too difficult for the international community to reach any sort of mutually enforced environmental cost structure, consensus is necessary as the environmental sink for this industry is not local but is the shared atmosphere of Earth. Anyone adopting such a cost structure locally/unilaterally quickly destroys their own competitiveness and fades their economy toward irrelevance. It’s a prisoner’s dilemma. Humanity is very unlikely to reach a collaborative outcome, so the optimal strategy for any sovereign entity is to outcompete everyone else in a race condition. This is what is happening in the world. Lots of countries who can’t do strategy are doing random, bad, self defeating unilateral things, and a few strategic sovereigns are racing away. Pretty obvious who is who. What the world needs isn’t a political or market solution, those have already failed. China escaped. What we need is a technology solution, and that’s going to be a residential fabric of PV + BESS and high density industrial node of deep nuclear concentration. Oil and gas will only get more expensive as they deplete, the solution is to race the 21st century technologies to the cross over point as fast as possible, so that the switch is economic (competitive) and not political (collaborative). This is the system strategy approach that is going to unfold. But it’s not what is currently underway.

@PassCombo @Object_Zero_ You consume it (or other energy) to run the compressors for liquifaction and the engines on the ships to move it...

@Object_Zero_ Please explain why transporting gas destroy it? You mean the cost gets too big to make sense?

@dr_energy_ @Big_Orrin You don't need to occupy it to do that. You also are removing any reason for Iran to not destroy any scrap of energy infrastructure they can reach...

@Big_Orrin wouldn't it be sufficient if iran can no longer use the facility?

@PeterMassie Note, inevitably, more of the costs will be fixed costs, with fairly low volumteric rates in off hours.

@PeterMassie Prosumer vs. General public... I think the appetite will not be there for mass directe exposure to live prices. A ToU with a 'bonus' method if you can take advantage of low prices would psychologically work better. Plus automated things the user doesn't have to think about.

Three more things that help us get more use out of (any) grid: 1. Dual fuel / ground source heat pumps (to grow sales, and minimize peak load) 2. Dynamic line rating (to get more out of wires, not just gens) 3. Better price signals for residential consumers. The tech exists!

@PeterMassie Summer becomes a recharge season! In my modeling effort, covering heating without either geothermal used this way, or dual fuel is crazy expensive. Like add a whole 1X our current peak more over and above the impact of the rest of electrification. I.e Grid goes 3X instead of 2X

@PeterMassie The low temperature's hit on thermal efficiency for power doesn't matter when you only need relatively low temp heat. And you don't need to pay for the power conversion or cooling equipment. And the rock temp depletation is mitigated by only averaging 30-50% of nameplate

@McFaul If the 'allies' are to contemplate this, they should demand: -US weapons supply for Ukraine. -No more tarrifs. -Cover the cost of any losses incurred -Pay for the delta between post war fuel costs and pre-war (for the whole country) All of this at a senate confirmed treaty level.

@McFaul He needs decoys to soak up Iranian missiles without loosing anyone with political saliince for *him*. Period. Doubtful there will be much enthusiasm in signing up for that...

What military assets do we need from NATO allies to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? I thought we had the largest, most effective navy in the world? Or is this all just political? Trump needs the symbolism of allied support for his war? Genuine questions. Post answers.

@tallzabby @CoopTory It's the canery, If we can't manage to get nuclear costs under control, there is a whole slew of other aspects we are also not going to get under control either.

@CoopTory Nuclear is the way if people in Anglo countries can figure out how to build things again. The most capital intensive energy possible, we've never been worse at building it. Hinkley Point C (UK) is expected to cost 4-5x more per megawatt hour than the current electricity prices

Renewables have created a quagmire. It’s a more complicated system, that is massively overbuilt, still reliant on fossil fuels, and wastes energy on curtailment. Unsurprisingly, prices have exploded, and are expected to continue rising. Nuclear is the way.

@tomas_lamy @pdaures @HotmSandy Forestry products? Still fuel for the collection of it, but about the least impacted directly...

@pdaures @HotmSandy Construction, matériaux, semi-conducteurs. Questce qui n’est pas impacte en fait 😅

The group 3+/PAO (high end base oils in more or less everything today) oil market in shambles with this loss. This will eventually end with shortages, worse than covid honestly. Probably the same with additives markets. Nobody talk about lubricants, never until they disappear

@Zackcy @_night_brain__ Definitely going to be more willingness to have under-utilized gas capacity, even at a cost, to minimize consumption...

@_night_brain__ Intermittency & storage are still real problem. Renewables only really work because of gas back-up.

I get that gas and nuclear are epic and based, but Growth and Progress-oriented individuals might discuss accelerating renewables deployment, if that's not too passé

@tomas_lamy @225kV_Grid What is the capacity on those ASU's? They must be gargantuan!

@Ember421 @225kV_Grid ASU unit apparently. So a single utility

Something is real broken. They lost a mega train

@Morticah @Kaikenhuippu You have to put in the equipment to extract it, and the US actually used to have a store of it, but sold it off...

@Kaikenhuippu Isn’t the helium for those only from production surplus that would otherwise go to waste? As you can’t store it for long and it is extracted as byproduct anyway?

This seems annoyingly important. (yes, we should have banned party balloons long, long time ago...)