Oasis

@nu_arupaka @TorpedoTrading pentwater is passive investor and files 13G, blackout policy may not apply. SRS basically controls the board.

@edgehilltrading @TorpedoTrading but it's the same set of rules as for pentwater right? what a legal team they must have

$CAR management knew nothing about pentwater actions until their filing yesterday. They will aggressively pursue every dollar shareholders are entitled to per ceo. should expect legal battles.

$CAR price has reversed some. Earning is better than estimated. Profit disgorgement amount from Pentwater is still uncertain but management will pursue the max. ATM offering seems off the table for now. Short Squeeze risk is still there depends on what Pentwater does next, they still have a massive position plus TRS. Continue to sell puts on dips.

@nu_arupaka @TorpedoTrading they can't. blackout period.

@TorpedoTrading @edgehilltrading most surprising even is SRS not having done anything at all

let's see if Avis discusses the profit disgorgement from Pentwater in earning calls tomorrow since Pentwater said they "are engaged in discussion with the Issuer and have agreed to voluntarily disgorge to the Issuer any short-swing profits realized from these matchable transactions in accordance with Section 16(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934." Maybe the final amount can't be agreed yet.

@edgehilltrading ok, what do you think the logic is behind the disclosure then? as an RIA can pentwater say not really section 16 insider because the owners are its clients?

So Pentwater's sale of 4.3mm shares of $CAR at highs created over 2bn trading profits by my estimate, and if it disgorges its profits to the company based on section 16(b), it is a huge cash injection to Avis. The whole thing feels very illegal but it may not break any law and they may say they did it so that it benefits the company and their remaining stakes. If that is the case, $CAR may not need to raise cash via ATM any more. So maybe this is the real master plan if shorts pile in again: 1. Pentwater maintains 10%+ ownership → Section 16(b) applies to all trades 2. Pentwater squeezes shorts repeatedly → generates massive trading profits 3. Section 16(b) mandates disgorgement of those profits → cash flows directly to CAR's treasury 4. $CAR receives free equity capital → balance sheet improves, leverage ratio drops 5. Improved balance sheet → equity value of Pentwater's remaining shares rises 6. Rinse and repeat Genius.

@stoked_on_waves Unlikely only 94k shares for section 16b calculation purposes, they also exercised a lot of call options

@edgehilltrading even 400$/sh of profit on those shares is like 40M right

@stoked_on_waves Those sales are supposed to match with lowest cost buys in the last 6 months.

@edgehilltrading very few of the shares sold seem to be short swing eligible from the disclosure

@MMC9987 Corporate debt only 6bn, rest is non-recourse ABS backed by used car fleets. Its CDS at 390bps is very healthy BB-/B+ HY credit.

@edgehilltrading They’re over $25 billion in debt……lol

I finally covered all my $CAR shorts today and am ready to sell $CAR puts if ER tomorrow is bad.

@stockgutter @ACInvestorBlog so $CAR receives 2bn+ cash from the squeeze?

interesting...it looks like Pentwater is in negotiations to disgorge a large amount of its profits to $CAR under Exchange Act Section 16(b) (short swing rules): Many sales are accompanied by the following footnote: "The Reporting Persons are engaged in discussion with the Issuer and have agreed to voluntarily disgorge to the Issuer any short-swing profits realized from these matchable transactions in accordance with Section 16(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended."

$CAR Insider selling

First $SLV then $IBIT now $CAR Jane St makes those penny stock pump dump schemes look like kids' play. Their profits this year will be another record... Digging into their 13F filing ending 12/31/2025, Jane st only owns 5%+ stakes in two non-financial stocks: $CAR and $AAOI $AAOI must be the next one! They ride it up, then they dump it hard.

Instead of highlighting some real bubble and market manipulation like $CAR, Marko chooses to double down, triple down, 10x down on being bearish on storage, chips, semis, Kospi $EWY and everything big tech is pouring billions into, simply because their prices all went up a lot...

@bigbirdNYC27 Shorts need to cover, lots of retail think there will be another squeeze…

@edgehilltrading Any reason it shouldn’t go straight back to $100?

It seems $CAR will be lucky to issue shares above $160 after ER. Bad actors like Pentwater needs to be punished. I hope they get rug pulled by SRS and AVIS management, and maybe its own investors.

@tylerhkling This is wrong. It’s not FIFO like doing tax. They can’t sell if it results profits from any buys in the last six months

$CAR There's a thing called the short-swing profit rule that states if you are above a 10% holder in a company any profitable trades that were held for six months or less are due to the company. Pentwater can't sell a lot of its shares here because the profits would be owed to Avis. But there are around 2.4mm shares they acquired last year that they can sell and not be subject to short-swing.

@SteveDJacobs Pentwater can’t sell for 6 months. srs is probably free to sell after ER, but the didn’t sell in a similar short squeeze in 2021 not sure if they learned the lesson.

To my knowledge, two hedge funds — SRS and Pentwater — together own 69.3% of the actual stock of $CAR, but on top of that they hold cash-settled total return swaps on the stock, bringing their combined economic exposure to 106.21% of shares outstanding. With other positions factored in, the number reaches approximately 108%. SRS and Pentwater are not acting in concert (that would be illegal coordination). They arrived at the same trade independently. That means neither knows exactly when the other plans to exit creating a “prisoners dilemma”. The one who exits first gets the best price. The one who exits second gets crushed by the first one’s selling pressure and is now trying to offload a massive position into a stock already in freefall. So both have a strong incentive to exit before the other. But if both act on that incentive simultaneously, the cascade is even more violent. When one fund starts selling: •Price drops, triggering short-covering fear in the other fund •The borrowed-share supply suddenly loosens as the squeeze unwinds •Short sellers who’ve been trapped start getting their borrow back and pile in on the short side •Index funds and passive holders who rode it up start seeing redemption pressure •The synthetic swap dealers who hedged by buying stock now need to sell their hedges Each of those feedback loops reinforces the others. The unwind of a corner historically tends to be much faster than the squeeze itself. The tell will likely be a sudden spike in volume on an up day that doesn’t follow through.

Is $CAR About To Crash? 💥🚙 On Friday, Avis Budget Group Inc ( $CAR) closed at $493.86, which is its highest ever closing price. It has closed green for 13 consecutive days ... will that be unlucky? At 25.28x ATR-to-SMA50 on the daily timeframe, $CAR is now THE most extended stock in the universe ($1B+ market cap and $20M+ D$V). The all-time intraday high was $545.11 on the 2nd November 2021 which is 10.4% above Friday's close. Given the recent parabolic move, this could easily be exceeded this week. In the short-term, who knows how far this could run - it could double or more from here However, in the longer-term, history has not been kind to stocks this extended from the SMA50 and with earnings due in 15 days on the 4th May, something may give before then ...

@RealJimChanos @RealSimpleAriel they can't issue stock in the blackout period until they release some preliminary results to avoid legal liabilities.

@RealSimpleAriel Shhhhhh….that’s the part no one is talking about. $CAR

So Avis Budget Group ($CAR) has negative equity, loses money, has almost $25B in net debt with negative FCF. And is now trading at 60x 2028E hoped-for EPS. No position, but where is the Board here…?! They should be selling equity as fast as possible at these prices.

@1991Wolfpack @RealJimChanos They can issue shares next week while releasing the preliminary results. $gme did that before. $car should do the same if they are smart

@RealJimChanos $CAR is in quiet period so no sales until first week of May. Then one has to assume there will be large scale selling, increase of the float and probably refinance some of the debt.

@FixedIncQuant no it is $CAR not $CARR. $CAR keeps going up still.

@edgehilltrading is this why $CARR is down today :) ?

If you're an investor in SRS Investments, nearly 50% of your capital is concentrated in a single stock: $CAR. SRS holds over 49% of the company — a position so large it has effectively cornered the float and created a textbook short squeeze. But the same concentration that inflated the price is now its greatest liability. If SRS begins unwinding even a fraction of its stake, there is no orderly exit. The stock could easily fall 80%+ from current levels, simply because the seller is the market. This is the same liquidity mismatch that exposed private credit funds: NAV is marked at prices that assume an exit no one can actually execute. SRS's reported NAV — upon which performance fees are collected — is flattering itself with an illiquid position priced as if it were freely tradeable. It is not. The math is simple: a 49% stake in a massive short squeezed mid-cap stock cannot be liquidated without destroying the price it's being marked at. The fee is real. The exit is not. Redeeming your capital before the unwind begins may be the only rational move.