James Edwards

Nebius' Earnings Call: "We are typically seeing 4 or more customers competing for every GPU we bring online..." OK, let's break it down: 1. Nebius notified investors in today's call that all their newly deployed capacity is sold out again. 2. "We are typically seeing 4 or more customers competing for every GPU we bring online." 3. That makes sense, we are short on compute that is deployed and functional. 4. As of December 31, 2025, just one quarter ago, Nebius had only 170MW of active power consisting of H100, H200, GB300, GB200, B200, B300 and some others. We are talking about dozen of thousands GPUs only. 5. According to the last unaudited ER from Nebius this morning, they added around $1.6B to their PP&E, slightly less than $1 billion worth of GPUs. Hopefully they are all operating. That means around 17,500 to 22,000 more GPUs, and this is if we are generous with Nebius, and with their ability to bring such an amount of GPUs online. 6. Which means around 40MW deployed in one quarter. 7. Just as a reminder, Anthropic rented a 300MW datacenter from xAI for the demand. 40MW is tiny and not enough. 8. Now these numbers include the GPUs reserved as part of the second tranche for Meta and Microsoft. 9. Which means Nebius deployed merely a low few thousands of new GPUs to their short-term customers, and we are generous here. 10. According to NVIDIA's Q1 estimated datacenter revenue of approximately $70B, NVIDIA is expected to ship/sell/etc. around 1.2M to 1.5M GPUs. 11. Therefore, we are short on deployed compute, but there are lots of GPUs. Lots. Q.E.D

The one thing that absolutely never happens during a bubble is everyone thinking it's a bubble

Avocado oil splatter all over my American made shirt! It’s always when I flip the omelet 😩🍳 any good oil stain tips?

🔴 Meta looks to raise as much as $25 billion from a bond sale. $META

SOXX Semiconductors island top. Big if true.

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy: "We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%. If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years. Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP. 10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect. In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country. And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008. The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows. So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now. Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

Well done JPM. It is just math.

Earnings expectations for American stocks are now rising faster than after the 2017 tax cuts. They're rising at a pace you usually only see during recovery from recessions. The profit machine will not stop.

You don't truly grasp the size of eagles until one is right in front of you.