ef3
596 posts
ef3
@ef3arc
btc, eth, hype, xmr and polymarket I feel I’m gonna win
onchain Katılım Ekim 2025
313 Takip Edilen162 Takipçiler
2:0 for Spain omggg
only 11% for France to Advance on Polymarket
is there still chances for France ??
Kate@_kate_lv
OYARZABAL just scored, 1:0 for Spain!! Polymarket has Spain at 52% to win tonight
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How much did the Zcash cabal pay @GZuckerman and @Vlajournaliste to write this? $100k each?
zcash:native bitcoin:native
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Yo you forget to cancel this @mustafap0ly
Dustin Karp@digitdustin
Stopped by @mustafap0ly desk today..
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Murakami Flowers Floor at 0.03 ETH.
Someone has been quietly sweeping for six straight days and swept 25 two hours after my post from yesterday.
62 Flowers bought in total.
That’s interesting.
This is pure art from one of the world’s most established artists. No utility. No roadmap.
If you view them as digital artworks not speculative NFT projects the pricing starts to look very different.
Murakami’s physical prints regularly sell for $8k–30k.
The question I keep asking is:
Could Flowers become the first NFT collection by a blue chip traditional artist to truly break out?
And an even bigger question:
Could its artistic provenance eventually become strong enough to compete with Punks?
If the answer is yes, today’s prices may look ridiculously cheap in hindsight.
vangoya@vangoyaa
Ran Takashi Murakami through a market cap model like he’s a coin. $160M–$510M FDV. Thesis: Murakami Flowers are undervalued.
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re: sorloth counter attack mistake (easy to point on from my chair + lesson for future)
frame 1, about to receive ball: shoudlve (probably) cut toward center, force defender to pick either defend haaland, or get out ran
2, but he pushed ball forward, and his options got cooked
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ef3 retweetledi
@coinmamba @hantengri Or even better with monero. Why choosing the cabal and vc privacy coin when you can support real privacy use?
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For me the ideal portfolio is selecting one coin for each narrative. It doesn’t have to be the best performing coin from that sector but I’ll still benefit one way or another. Also I believe diversification is overrated.
So for example:
L1 for tokenization and RWA : $ETH
Privacy and SOV: $ZEC
DEX Perps: $LIT
DEX/AMM: $AERO
Maybe you can add 1 or 2 here and that will be enough to cover you for the next cycle.
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if this had happened on Lighter, dot HL bros would’ve been dunking for a month straight
lyxe@cryptolyxe
damn cashcat just wicked -60% in 3 minutes on hyperliquid. reminder that leverage is not your friend
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There is currently a 48% chance that @predictdotfun will launch their official token by Dec 31st, 2026.
Please don’t rug us both!
#Tv6KZXz1" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/will-pre…
predict.fun@predictdotfun
There is currently a 26% chance that @Polymarket will launch their official token by Dec 31st, 2026. predict.fun/market/will-po…
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@senzer @Polymarket they really falling off. shayne should send a message and fire the idiots responsabile for last set backs
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@911loverPink @Polymarket @williamlegate So do you like anything for today final or market priced to perfection??
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Tennis is quietly the sharpest corner of @Polymarket and nobody talks about it.
@williamlegate i've pushed $8.9m volume through tennis markets nobody tweets about - challenger events, first-round matches, all of it on-chain.
Everyone thinks this place is elections. The real edge lives in the corners.
MeowMeow@911loverPink
+$91k all-time on polymarket. 3,716 trades. Mostly tennis. Last week that number was +$200k. I gave back $110k in three days. that's not a typo and i'm not hiding it - the wallet is public, you can watch it happen on the chart. Starting this account for one reason: everyone posts their equity curve at the peak. Nobody posts the week after. I'll be logging entries, exits and mistakes here, in that order of honesty. No signals. No courses. No "dm me". If a number sounds too clean, check it yourself
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I can’t believe people are saying shi like this for free
Sibel@sibeleth
Robinhood feels like Solana without rapers, bundlers, serial ruggers and insider information groups. Refreshing.
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@Payne_1337 @SuhailKakar Hip4 rules! Price discovery happening there thanks to suhail
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@ef3arc @SuhailKakar big brain move
meanwhile, Spain To Win at 0.209 on HL with zero fees
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This is Spain to win the World Cup, one of Polymarket biggest sports markets right now.
The bid and ask are just 0.1¢ apart, with huge liquidity on both sides, yet barely anything trades all day.
That’s what happens when @SuhailKakar raises sports fees to absurd levels: even the most degenerate takers stop taking.
Taker trading has been executed.
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@defioasis @datadashboards It's worth mentioning we have 7 incentive programs and no maker fees.
x.com/primo_data/sta…
Primo Data@primo_data
Yesterday we sent over $4m to ~30k users to backfill taker rebates and level up bonuses. The majority of our fees go back to our users via: 1. Taker rebates + level up bonuses 2. Maker rebates 3. Liquidity rewards 4. Referral rewards 5. Affiliate program 6. Builder rewards 7. Yield on select markets
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Polymarket Sports 把 Taker Fees 参数从 0.03 提到 0.05，涨幅接近 67%
根据各个预测市场或细分市场的费用公式：
- Predict Fun = 0.02 × min(p, 1-p)
- Limitless = 0.03 × min(p, 1-p)
- Polymarket Sports = 0.03 × p × (1-p) （以后为 0.05 × p × (1-p) ）
- Polymarket Politics/Finance/Tech = 0.04 × p × (1-p)
- Polymarket Culture = 0.05 × p × (1-p)
- Polymarket Crypto = 0.072 × p × (1-p)
- Kalshi general = 0.07 × p × (1-p) ，并且有 cent-level rounding
在 50c 附近（图 1），Predict Fun 的 raw fee 是 $0.0100 /股；Limitless 是 $0.0150 /股；Polymarket Sports 在旧参数下是 $0.0075 /股，后续按新参数会变成 $0.0125 /股；Polymarket Culture 是$0.0125 /股，Polymarket Crypto 是 $0.0180 /股。Kalshi general 按公式是$0.0175 /股，但会受到最小计费/向上取整影响
随着 25c/75c 这种更常见的非均衡价格（图 2），Predict Fun 优势进一步显现：费用跟 min(p,1-p) 走，尾部价格的成本下降更直接
10c/90c 时（图 3），Predict Fun 的 effective fee 会明显低于大多数按 p×(1-p) 且参数更高的平台。Predict Fun 的 raw fee 约 $0.0020 /股；Polymarket Sports 新参数约 $0.0045 /股；Polymarket Culture 约$0.0045 /股；Polymarket Crypto 约 $0.00648 /股
PM Sports 新费率下，对主动交易者和高频体育市场用户来说，低费率平台的优势会更直观。预测市场最终比的是价格发现和交易效率。费用越低，用户在调仓、套利、做市和高频下注时被消耗的边际收益越少
目前看在全价格区间，Predict Fun 的费率是最低的，处在费率梯队的优势有望会被进一步放大
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